Lockdown

While Boris Johnson used the bank holiday weekend to get married, scientists have been busy filling the airwaves with various warnings about proceeding with the final lockdown easing on 21 June. There have been a series of statements from both government advisers and other scientists arguing that in the face of rising cases of the Indian variant – which the World Health Organisation now calls ‘Delta’ – it would be unwise to press ahead with the next stage of the roadmap this month. Nervtag member Prof Ravi Gupta has said the UK appears to be in what could be described as the early stages of a third wave – with an ‘exponential’ rise in cases.

There are two key questions ahead of the 21 June reopening. First, as I say in the magazine this week, there is the issue of how much more transmissible the Indian variant is than the Kent one. According to papers published by Sage, it is a ‘realistic possibility’ that it is up to 50 per cent more transmissible. If the true figure is at the top of this range, then a full reopening would likely lead to another big wave of cases and put pressure on hospitals. But the view in Whitehall is that if it is only 30 per cent more transmissible, then it should be safe to proceed with reopening. More data on this is expected next week. The second question is how many people have had their second jab by then.

What a mess. Ministers have today been defending the decision to place eight areas in what is being called a 'lockdown by stealth', after it turned out that the government had quietly published guidance to slow the spread of the Indian variant without telling anyone in those areas.  That guidance, which pitched up on the gov.uk website at 5.26pm on Friday, told people to avoid indoor meetings and avoid travelling in and out of affected areas unless it is essential. But when journalists from the Manchester Evening News approached local politicians and public health officials, it turned out that they didn't know about this guidance. Which rather begs the question of what the point of it is.

As the government puts the final touches to its social distancing review and Foreign Office ministers ponder the best response to the situation in Belarus, it's a scheduled select committee appearance that is the subject of the most animated chatter in Westminster. Dominic Cummings is due to give evidence before the joint health and science committee inquiry into the government's Covid response. Boris Johnson's relationship with his senior aide has dramatically worsened since Cummings left government The session — which is due on Wednesday from 9.30 a.m. to 1 p.m. (Cummings has said he is happy to stay longer) — has been causing nerves in 10 Downing Street for some time.

The prospect of the final easing of lockdown restrictions in England going ahead precisely as planned on 21 June is close to nil, according to ministers and officials. 'It is clear some social distancing will have to be retained, not everything we've set out for 21 June is likely to happen,' said a government adviser. 'But it is also possible some of the easing we've done today will have to be reversed.'  Neither he nor a minister would be drawn on precisely which parts of the planned unlocking may have to be delayed, or which aspects of unlocking that's already happened would need rolling back.

The Prime Minister said today there would be a 'full proper public inquiry' into the government's handling of the Covid-19 crisis. This is highly significant, because a 'full, proper public inquiry' means one led by a judge and with witnesses represented by lawyers. I am also told – though Downing Street is refusing to comment on this – that the Cabinet will be asked by the Prime Minister to approve the terms of the inquiry on Wednesday morning, and there could be an announcement shortly afterwards. Such a public inquiry – like Leveson's into hacking and Chilcot's into the decision to go to war in Iraq – would take many years and might not report until after the next election.