Liberal democrats

So, now almost all the votes have been counted — except for those in the Islamic Republic of Tower Hamlets, where the vibrant and colourful political practices of Bangladesh continue to keep the returning officers entertained. Allegations of widespread intimidation of voters at polling booths, postal voting fraud and a huge number of mysteriously spoiled ballot papers; so much more fun than the usual dull, grey and mechanistic western electoral procedure. You wonder, looking at the exotic political fervour of Tower Hamlets, how on earth the British people could be so mean-spirited as to have developed this sudden animus against immigration. White British people now make up less than one third of this exciting, go-ahead borough; how they must love it there.

Nick Clegg said this morning that 'appropriate steps' will be taken to deal with Lord Oakeshott after the peer was outed as the 'Lib Dem supporter' who had commissioned uncomfortable polling about the Lib Dems' chances in 2015. As with other difficult situations with Lib Dem peers, though, Clegg doesn't have that much power to remove the whip from Oakeshott, even if he'd like to.

Lord Oakeshott has gone under the radar, as speculation mounts about his involvement in a bid to oust party leader Nick Clegg. Many believe he is responsible for commissioning a poll that appeared in today’s Guardian, showing that Clegg and other Lib Dems could lose their Commons seats if he remains leader. Looking through the House of Lords Register of Members' interests, it’s clear that Oakeshott is very rich indeed, boasting numerous Directorships and shareholdings. He certainly has the financial clout to fund such a poll. The register reveals something else, too: that Oakeshott has one member of staff, called Naomi Smith. She confirmed to me that she is 'a researcher for him in my spare time'.

Vince Cable, definitely not in the Team Nick camp, has finally broken his silence from a trade visit in China to defend his colleague. In the past few minutes the Business Secretary has released this statement: 'These were exceptionally disappointing results for the party. Many hard working Liberal Democrats, who gave this fight everything they had and then lost their seats, are feeling frustrated and disheartened and we all understand that. 'Nick did a bold thing in standing up to the eurosceptic wave which has engulfed much of continental Europe. We are the only party to have taken that on and he personally deserves tremendous credit for that. There is no leadership issue.

This weekend was always going to be an unpleasant one for Nick Clegg. The delay between the council results on Friday and tonight’s European Election count meant that the pain was going to be drawn out for the Liberal Democrats, giving activists plenty of time to vent their anger at the leadership. So far, the anti-Clegg mutterings have been fairly limited. There are no big beasts calling for him to go. This could change after tonight’s results, especially if the Lib Dems come behind the Greens. But I suspect that three things will keep Clegg safe. 1). He’s made very clear he won’t go without a fight. Trying to force a leader out of office is an unpleasant and mucky business and I doubt that many Liberal Democrat MPs have the stomach for that fight.

Only one party can be happy with the local elections results so far, Ukip. Nigel Farage’s party has so far added 86 councilors to its tally and these results suggest that Sunday, when the European Election votes are counted, should be a good night for the party. Labour’s results have been mixed to disappointing. Their best news of the night was picking up Hammersmith and Fulham off the Tories. Knocking over one of the Tories’ flagship councils will delight Labour. But Hammersmith is a region where the demographics have been running against the Tories, look at how Shaun Bailey failed to win the parliamentary seat last time. Labour has also gained control of Merton and Cambridge City councils.

Now the waiting begins.

I am beginning to think that Dominic Cummings has driven Nick Clegg round the bend. The Lib Dem leader should want this row over universal free school meals to go away; it is a massive distraction with elections only six days away. But he can't help himself from keeping it going. So, today we have a joint Gove Laws op-ed in The Times declaring that they are not at loggerheads over the policy. This is accompanied by a news story which reveals that Clegg demanded that Gove write the piece. The piece also reveals, rather unhelpfully, that some schools are not on track to deliver the policy in time for September. Not content with this, Clegg has been busy stoking the row in his morning interviews. He doesn't seem to realise that he has a lot to lose while Cummings has nothing to lose.

What will become of the other big coalition row that's burning away alongside free schools? David Cameron was asked today about the plans to introduce mandatory sentences for repeat knife offences, and made some very supportive noises again, which the Tories signed up to Nick de Bois' amendment to the Criminal Justice and Courts Bill think is a sign that they've made the right decision. He suggested that Nick Clegg could change his mind about it - and some have taken this as a sign that there's a compromise on the cards. The Conservatives tell me they are 'looking carefully' at de Bois' amendments, but the Lib Dems say they haven't heard of any compromise being offered and they will only accept a deal that has evidence behind it that it would cut knife crime.

David Axelrod jets into London this week for the first time since signing up to help Labour in 2015. Axelrod, who friends admit is no expert on UK politics, will have two days to try and get his head round the shape of the next election campaign. This trip will mark the first time that Axelrod and Miliband have met face to face. Up to now, they have only spoken on the telephone. Axelrod will also address a specially convened meeting of the shadow Cabinet. There’s no doubt that having the man who helped Obama get to the White House in town will be a boost to Labour morale. But the scale of the task facing Axelrod is demonstrated by the events of the last week.

The Coalition has been much more of a success than anyone could have predicted when it formed in 2010. It hasn't just held together for spending cuts, but has passed important reforms to welfare and education. It's important to repeat that now, when the partnership is growing increasingly tired and snappy. The parties spent yesterday pecking at one another over whether or not to introduce tougher mandatory sentences for repeat knife offences. They won't produce a Queen's Speech bursting with legislative excitements, either. But one of the things that this Coalition has shown us is that it's not just the policy red lines that make a difference to whether a government of more than one party can be radical: it's the plumbing too.

One of the interesting things I learned from a recent Lord Ashcroft poll was the startling fact that three times as many people identify themselves as Labour voters, tribally, as Tories (around 30 per cent versus 10), despite the two parties having roughly similar base support in general elections. This says something about the different way the two groups think; loyalty to the Labour Party runs deep and is emotional, while for Conservative voters the party is pretty much a pragmatic organisation to keep even worse politicians from running the country. I’m not sure which group will suffer more in the long term from the current crisis of party politics; Tories can be detached from their party more easily, but for Labour voters the break may be more bitter and permanent.

Danny Alexander's comments to the BBC that, in the event of another hung parliament, the Lib Dems wouldn't make a confidence and supply deal with either the Tories or Labour, is the clearest statement yet of the leadership's position. The Clegg circle believes that a second term in government is crucial to consolidating the changes that he made to the party, to making the Liberal Democrats think like a party of government. Not everyone in the party is so keen on a second coalition. One influential Lib Dem MP told me a few months back that he thought a post 2015 coalition with either party would be a disaster for the Lib Dems. His rationale was that going in with David Cameron again would make the Lib Dems look like an annex of the Tory party.