Labour party

Sunday

James Forsyth

Blair and Brown, the story that keeps on running and running

Adam Boulton is exceptionally well sourced in the Blair circle so the extract from his updated history of the Blair years makes for fascinating reading. It shows how Blair is carving out a post-premiership in a way that no other ex-British Prime Minister ever has. What is making news, though, is what Boulton reveals about relations between the Blairites and Brownites. In a way, it is no surprise that Blair regards Brown as a quitter not a fighter. Brown’s avoidance of contests where the result is not certain has been a feature of his political career.

Fraser Nelson

The Budget bombshells revealed

An interesting spat is just breaking out over cuts. The Conservatives have a leak from the working of the Budget showing detailed projections in government revenue to 2013-14 covered by all the main Sundays. This suggests income tax rising from £140bn this year to £191bn in four years' time. The Tories say this is not explained by economic growth and that the gap - £15bn - is equivalent to 3p in the basic rate of income tax. Liam Byrne is pushing back, saying Osborne is trying to "mislead the British people" (as if the government would try to do such a thing) and that the increase was accounted for “the economy returning to growth, no more, no less”.

Saturday

Fraser Nelson

Why Vince Cable is not too sexy for his party

For all his celebrity, Vince Cable is not exactly an economic genius - as those who have read his book, The Storm,  will know all to well (Specator review here). But he is seldom tested on this point, as he encounters broadcasters whose line of questioning is normally "tell us, Sage of Twickenham, what is happening." For those who don't regard him as the new Oracle and have wanted  see him put through his paces, Andrew Neil - Cable's former student - gives his old master a grilling on the BBC News Channel. In the interview, Cable gets steadily more irritated (and rumbled) and admits to having flip-flopped. The Cable phenomenon illustrates the gulf between economic and political reporting. As a business hack to went into politics, the contrast has always struck me.

David Blackburn

Liberal moment or Liberal Democrat dilemma?

It’s not often that a man who claims to have bedded and satisfied over 30 women declares that the nation is on the cusp of ‘its liberal moment’, and it’s drawn attention to the Liberal Democrats. With Labour seemingly returning home to the house that Jack Jones built, Nick Clegg should be sweeping the country, but his earnest predictions about a progressive liberal future have made no impression and his party still trails. Why are the Lib Dems doing so poorly? Lloyd Evans’ appraisal that they failed to use the expenses scandal to push their long-standing reform agenda has much to commend it. And today, Polly Toynbee writes a brilliant analysis in the Guardian, observing that the Liberals are caught between a split right/left voting base.

Peter Hoskin

Is Osborne worth it?

Fresh from winning GQ's Politician of the Year award last week, George Osborne now has an accolade he may be even happier with: heavy praise from both Peter Oborne and Matthew Parris.  Both commentators write columns today which dish out the superlatives for Osborne's response to the fiscal crisis, and suggest he has been vindicated by events.  Here's the key passage from Oborne's article, by way of a taster: "Slowly Osborne began to win the argument. First (as I revealed in this column last March), Bank of England governor Mervyn King sent private warnings to the Treasury that he feared extra public spending would damage the official credit ratings that are awarded to the Government as an independent yardstick of the health of the nation's finances.

Peter Hoskin

The Tories will be thrilled if Brown starts playing the World Saver again

Patrick Wintour has an insightful article in today's Guardian, setting out how and why Brown has dithered when it comes to deploying the c-word.  So far as the current landscape is concerned, this passage is particularly striking: "There is tension between Brown and Darling on how far the campaign can be based on Brown's achievements in saving the world economy, and how far it must be based on visions of the future. Brown's determination to dwell on the fact that he made the correct big decisions in the recession has been one cause of his past reluctance to address the future deficit mountain, and how to deal with it.

Friday

David Blackburn

Another calamitous set of polls for Brown and Labour

A Populus poll for The Times shows that the Conservatives are more trusted to run vital services than Labour. Here are the details: ‘The Tories are now in a strong position on most public services, which have traditionally been vote-winners for Labour. On doing the best job of improving the NHS, the Tories are on 37 per cent (up 10 points since last March) against 34 per cent for Labour (down 1 point).

Peter Hoskin

How quickly things change

Spot the difference: 5 September, 2009: Gordon Brown warns G20 countries against reining in spending, The Telegraph "Britain is resisting pressure from Germany and other Euro-currency countries who are planning to moves towards an 'exit strategy' that would see some of the planned anti-recessionary spending programmes being scaled back to cut rising national debts." 18 September, 2009: Gordon Brown to call for international agreement to cut public spending, The Telegraph "Mr Brown says 'exit strategies' from the emergency fiscal measures that were introduced to stave off the worst excesses of the recession need to be agreed by all the leading nations.

Peter Hoskin

An April election is on the cards

A couple of weeks ago, Kevin Maguire told us that No.10 is thinking about a March or April general election.  And now Steve Richards follows up by suggesting April is most likely: "Speaking to influential ministers and aides I get the impression that their favoured month for an election is next April. In theory they could hold out until June, but that would mean going to the country in the immediate aftermath of the May local elections when Labour is expected to do badly. This option is already ruled out. There will be no June election. Obviously a general election could be held on the same day as the May local elections and it is still a likely option. But that date is the equivalent of going right up against the buffers when the media and perhaps voters will be getting impatient.

Thursday

David Blackburn

The Baroness Scotland’s housekeeper scandal exposes the mess our immigration system is in

The news that the UK Border agency will launch an investigation into allegations that the Attorney General, Baroness Scotland, employed an illegal immigrant is, obviously, highly embarrassing for the government. With his customary lack of style, the Tories’ attack-dog Chris Grayling commented: "This is a Government that says all small employers should be prosecuted if they don't know the immigration status of their employees and yet we have senior ministers who can't be bothered to make the checks themselves. There is a real 'one rule for them, one rule for us' attitude at the heart of this Government and it is a disgrace." That overstates the case.

David Blackburn

The Good Old Cause

Paul Waugh’s beaten us to it, but Ed Ball’s New Statesman article is a rallying cry to the left. He writes: ‘As we approach the most important general election for a generation, this is no time for introspection or defeatism. There's never been a moment when Labour's values and experience have been more relevant or necessary.’ And what are those values? Well, they’re not Blairite: ‘In public-service reform, we sometimes sounded as though private-sector solutions were always more efficient; and who can now doubt that, despite the tougher measures we brought in, financial regulation was not tough enough?

Peter Hoskin

Which Miliband’s star is ascending?

For the Kremlinologists among us, Andrew Grice has an insightful article in today's Independent on the growing support for Ed Miliband in the Labour Party.  He kicks it off by asking the pivotal question when it comes to the Brothers Miliband - "Will Ed Miliband eclipse brother David?" - and follows that up with some affirmative evidence: "...the word in Labour circles is that Ed is no longer trailing in his brother's wake. Indeed, some senior figures believe he has already overtaken him in the game that increasingly occupies Labour minds as the party appears to head for a general election defeat – its future leadership stakes... ...friends are quietly telling [Ed] that David will not be leader because he is seen as too Blairite.

David Blackburn

Clegg: Are you one of the millions who turned to new Labour in 1997?

Nick Clegg joins the ‘progressive’ debate with a double of salvo in The Times and in a pamphlet, titled ‘The liberal moment’, published by Demos. The philosophically anachronistic Labour party is his target. He writes: ‘The contrast between Labour and liberals is starkest in their different approaches to power. While Labour hoards at the centre, liberals believe that power must be dispersed away from government - downwards to individuals and communities, and upwards to the international institutions needed to tackle our collective problems. State-centered, top-down solutions are wholly out of step with the demands of our age.

Wednesday

Peter Hoskin

All political parties must face up to the debt crisis’ severity 

The Independent's Hamish McRae writes a superb column today on just how far the next government will have to go to tackle Brown's debt crisis.  His main point is that unless severe action is taken over the coming years, we'll be stuck in a perilous position by the time the next global downturn hits.  But it's this passage which stands out: "To what extent will the deficit fix itself, and how much more needs to be done? We don't have to do the full 13 per cent of GDP and the present government proposed in the Budget that it should cut about half, 6.4 per cent of GDP, of that over an eight-year period. Vince Cable, who seems to have become the nation's favourite financial GP, suggests an eight per cent correction over five years.

James Forsyth

Losing perspective 

At The Spectator, we’ve been so close to the spending debate that one worries about losing perspective. But this post from Faisal Islam gives one a sense of just how important today’s revelations are: “We have never seen this level of detail on a budget situation before. Much of what was implied or left out of the budget is stated in astonishing detail here. It is a total disaster for the treasury and the government, but some will argue the Tories have taken a big risk with financial confidence in publishing it.

David Blackburn

The Tories’ Treasury mole exposes Labour’s cuts deception

On July 2nd, Gordon Brown told the House of Commons: “I have always told the truth and I've always told people as it is...we don't want to have the 10 per cent cuts the Conservatives are talking about.” The Tories’ extremely destructive Treasury mole has leaked documents proving that Labour has been planning substantial cuts in front line services since before the budget. The DEL figures, printed below, are key: suggesting that a cumulative 9.3% cut was planned for 2011-2014, and Paul Waugh is right to point out that these revelations may explain why the government delayed its comprehensive spending review.

Tuesday

James Forsyth

A sneak preview of the election campaign

One of the features of the coming general election campaign is going to be the use of video attacks ads by outside groups. The idea is that a sufficiently well-produced or controversial one will be able to drive the news agenda and, rather like Dan Hannan’s European Parliament speech, become a story in and of itself. Conservative Home’s response to Gordon Brown’s use of the word ‘cuts’ today is a preview of the kind of thing we can expect come the spring.

Fraser Nelson

Purnell’s enjoying the freedom of the backbenches

James Purnell has just spoken at The Spectator’s Paths to Prosperity conference, with sideburns bushier than ever after the summer. He was doing an on-stage interview with Andrew Neil and was quite firm on the release of al-Megrahi. "He should have died in jail” said Purnell. “I would have left him in jail." I suspect the freedom to say such things is one of the reasons that Purnell quit government. He later took questions (quite often rude ones) from the floor. Sir Richard Sykes had been on earlier, talking about the dismal state of British education, and Purnell was asked why he couldn’t just agree that schools had gone downhill too. He drew the line at trashing Labour’s record on education. But I think we can see Purnell set off into his own orbit.

David Blackburn

Brown missed a trick by not deploying the ‘c-word’ earlier

Six months after a Politics Home/Spectator poll illustrated that ‘cuts’ was no longer a dirty word, Gordon Brown squared up and let slip the c-word. A new Politics Home ‘insider poll’ reveals that 86% of respondents believe Labour would be in a stronger position now if they had admitted the need for future cuts at the time of the Budget. That is almost certainly true: the obvious contrivance that was ‘Tory cuts versus Labour investment’, together with the invention of 0% rise economics, torpedoed the government’s credibility.