Labour party

Gordon Brown’s suggestion for a Tobin tax would, if implemented, crucify the City of London. We are the largest foreign exchange centre in the world and that Brown is seriously suggesting hitting this industry is a sure sign he does not expect to be in government after the election. It is the proposal that a British prime Minister should be dying in a ditch to kill off given that the City generates about a tenth of Britain’s economic wealth. The kind of proposal that might be aired by a Frenchman, purely to outrage Britain. It is, of course, a trick: Brown knows it won’t be agreed because it requires the approval of every major currency-trading country – and that will never be secured.

This week’s interviewee on the BBC’s Straight Talk with Andrew Neil is Peter Hain. One of the topics for discussion is Labour’s disengagement with its core vote and the rise of the BNP. Hain admits that this can be ascribed to Labour’s failings and Westminster’s disengagement with voters. Certainly, Labour’s failure on housing and migration has been a major factor in Griffin’s rise. But there is nothing to suggest that Labour has the political strength to re-engage. Even after the recent furore, there have been no new initiatives on housing or migration, just pitiful contrition in the place of action. Hain’s outright refusal to share a platform with the BNP and engage with its arguments is a case in point.

It’s worth flagging up the minutes of a regional Labour Party meeting, dated 2 November, that have been leaked to Iain Dale. The first stand out passage shows the Labour Party’s reliance on Barack Obama as a source of inspiration: ‘Claude[Moraes MEP] has been to Washington DC where Obama administration key players made it clear they don’t want to have to deal with a Eurosceptic Tory Government here as they want to be able to deal with the EU as a whole.’ Iain argues that the claim has no basis in fact. But, as Daniel Korski pointed out recently, it is clear that the US administration would prefer to work with an assertive and united EU, not one embroiled in internal squabbles.

According to the BBC's Laura Kuenssberg, Czech President Vaclav Klaus has signed the Lisbon Treaty. As James wrote this morning, Cameron has not broken any promise concerning a referendum because there was no such pledge except under circumstances that have passed; but Cameron must now detail how he intends to repatriate powers and obtain an opt-out from the Social Chapter. What is peculiar is how this has become a story about the Tories breaking pledges. It should be nothing of the sort. That 'honour' lies squarely with Brown and Blair. Labour's mock-outraged line that Cameron has '"reneged on his cast-iron guarantee" defies belief; it's incredible, brazen and unmistakably wrong.

In his column, James asks the key question about Tony Blair’s candidature for President of the European Council: what would it do for the Tories and Britain’s foreign policy. William Hague clearly thinks it would be a bad thing and has been lobbying against Blair’s candidacy.   The Shadow Foreign Secretary is letting his anti-EU, anti-Labour views cloud his judgement. Let me explain. If the Tories win, Labour will be in the doldrums, a shadow of its former self. The idea that the party will mount a challenge to a Conservative government by rallying around an EU-focused Tony Blair is unbelievable. Romani Prodi may have jumped from an EU job to the top of Italian politics, but Britain works differently. Peter Mandelson is the exception, Roy Jenkins the rule.

It is another black day for Gordon Brown. The financial news from America, contrasted with continuing decline here, indicts Brown’s recession strategy. Playing the long game, Osborne is being vindicated, and Guido is correct that the ongoing UK recession negates Labour’s attack line on Osborne: the novice has trumped the alleged master. More damaging though is the resurfacing of Damian McBride and the ‘omerta’ of Brown’s inner circle, with its sordid and cynical connotations. The news that Nadine Dorries will receive £1,000 from McBride reflects poorly on the Prime Minister. Worse still, there is possibly more to come – Dorries has two suits outstanding, against Number 10 and Derek Draper respectively.

George Osborne’s speech on Monday calling for huge cash bonuses not to be paid this year drew an angry response from those hoping to receive huge cash bonuses – and various City and business pressure groups. A few years ago I would have felt deeply uncomfortable with what Obsorne proposed, but because nearly every bank has drawn heavily on state support over the last year, I think politicians do have a right – even a responsibility – to offer firm guidance to the banks. The FT led the charge against Osborne with both a critical news story, gleefully dissected by Iain Martin, and a harsh leader. Today, the paper follows up with a page two story on a letter Alastair Campbell has sent the paper criticising the shadow Chancellor.

There have been two polls today which are worth mentioning belatedly.  The first is YouGov's voting intention poll for Wales, which Anthony Wells has analysed here and here.  It's not often you see a Welsh voting poll - which is a shame - and the results of this one are striking.  Labour are on 34 percent; the Tories are on 31 percent; Plaid Cymru on 15 percent; Lib Dems on 12 percent.  Overall, that's much better news for the Tories than it is for Labour: the last time the Tories scored 31 percent in Wales was in the 1983 election.