Labour party

Westminster today is dominated by the sound of helicopters hovering over head, waiting for Brown to set off from Downing Street to the Palace. This morning is the last time that Brown will have the full political advantage of his office, the ability to set the news agenda. The Tories are attempting to step on this by scheduling their campaign launch for bang in the middle of the time when Brown is expected to be at the Palace requesting a dissolution of parliament. I suspect that we are in for a game of media chicken with Brown trying to rush back to Downing Street and announce that the election is called so that the broadcasters cut away from the Cameron event. One surprise today is that Labour put up Lord Kinnock for the 8.10 slot on the Today Programme.

When Alistair Daring admitted last week that there would indeed be job losses arising from the proposed National Insurance hike, it would have struck Gordon Brown and Ed Balls like root canal surgery. This blows wide open the main part of Brown's election deceit: asking the public to look at the advantages of the borrowing, and not contemplate the flip side to the debt coin. Not to ask where the repayments will come from, or the impact of those repayments on the jobs of the future. No wonder Darling is today being made to claim the opposite. The grim truth is that every job "protected" now, due to debt, will be more than balanced out by money taken away from the economy in the form of the interest needed to serve that debt.

Last week, the Tories strengthened their tax-cutting credentials with a smart policy on national insurance.  I'm sure you didn't miss it.  But one part of the recent Tory resurgence is, to my mind, being underplayed: they now have a much stronger message on government waste.  After all, the NI policy is being funded by cutting waste.  And then there was that spoof website which pulled the limelight onto Labour's wasted spending.  And then there are the interviews in which Tory frontbenchers – such as William Hague today – say stuff like: "If there’s waste in government spending, which the Labour Government says there is, we should be saving the waste, not saying we’ll go on wasting it for several more years.

There's me thinking that Labour wouldn't go negative with their latest poster, created via an online competition among their supporters.  I mean, surely they wouldn't want to undermine their whizzy, positive, digital energy by picking a design which didn't present an equally positive Labour vision.  But, oh, how they did.  Here's the winning design: Now, there are two immediate problems with this poster.  The first being that I'd always thought the character Cameron is meant to be playing – DCI Gene Hunt – is actually quite popular with the public, despite his rough and less-then-edifying edges.  Indeed, he even topped a recent poll as "Britain's favourite TV hero".

Commuters won’t be alone in celebrating tonight. The High Court’s award of an injunction against the RMT’s planned Strike Action will have champagne corks popping in Downing Street. The Union movement’s sudden renaissance is both embarrassing and dangerous for the government. First, it has shifted the election spotlight back onto Labour. Before the BA strike, the Tories were driftwood – powerless to determine the direction in which they were headed. Unite’s political and social prominence exacerbated tensions within the Labour party, with divisions between New and quintessentially Old Labour becoming more stark. As Ed Howcker wrote last night, the next line in the prelude to internecine war is being written in Stoke.

For months now Lord Mandelson has been encouraging his friend and former colleague Tristram Hunt to continue the quest for a safe Labour seat. Indeed, there was a furore last month when Labour supporters in the Leyton and Wanstead constituency - a Labour stronghold - objected to the support Hunt was receiving from Downing Street in his bid for that candidature. At the time, the Standard ran quotes from a local member stating bluntly: “We do not want a No 10 candidate being pushed on the constituency.”   Duly, the candidature was given to John Cryer and not another word was mentioned. Until this Monday that is, when the FT broke the story that Hunt has made the shortlist for Stoke Central, and is now the hot favourite to win selection for this safe seat later this week.

Blair's return will be worth a good 2-3 points to the Tory lead. Like Mandelson, he can dazzle journalists who admire his tradecraft. Like Mandelson, he is loathed by the public who see a snake oil salesman. Blair mis-sold the country a project in 1997, and delivered none of what he promised (and it was with those broken 1997 problems in mind that the News of the World backed the Conservatives last weekend). He is not very popular now. When he gave evidence to the Chilcott Inquiry, the crowds came from near and far to denounce him. One placard, which I found outside my office, said "Blair is a war criminal" then someone had taped below it "and a w****r" but without the asterisks.