Israel

Iran’s unprecedented attack on Israel Saturday night represents a dangerous escalation for three reasons. The first is its scale, some 300 drones and missiles. Second, it marks the first time the Islamic Regime has launched a lethal attack on Israeli territory from Iran itself, rather than through proxies. Most important of all is the combination of the first two: a major attack launched against Israel from Iranian territory. Although Israel, the US, the UK and, surprisingly, Jordan managed to shoot down nearly all the incoming drones and missiles, it was the thought that counts. And it was a very dangerous thought. Within hours, the Iranian attack changed the region’s strategic landscape.

The decision by Israel to withdraw its forces from the devastated city of Khan Younis could portend a battle for the control of Gaza. For Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Israeli Defense Forces, the prize in the war against Hamas is the capture of the southern city of Rafah, a sprawling, tented enclave bulging with up to 1.4 million displaced and desperate Palestinians. Given that much of Gaza is now in ruins, there is almost nowhere left for the Palestinians trapped inside the city to flee. It is almost universally accepted that any assault would end in a bloodbath.

Naquora, Lebanon Tensions along the forty-nine-mile Blue Line that partitions Israel from Lebanon are as high as they’ve been in recent history. Given the stated objectives of Hezbollah, the powerful Shiite militia that controls Lebanon’s South and the IDF, which seeks to repel them beyond striking distance, that's saying a lot. Ten thousand sky-blue helmets stand between the warring sides, protecting a division of international troops from the raining debris of intercepted rockets. Nobody is targeting them, but collateral damage is inevitable in a region that sees fatal exchanges on a daily basis. The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon was established in 1978 following the Israeli invasion of Lebanon.

Back in 2016, Donald Trump had a memorable quote that pretty much encapsulated his old over the Republican Party: "I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and I wouldn't lose any voters, OK.” At this point, you might be able say the same thing about Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The premier could stroll up Fifth Avenue, shoot somebody on the street and still receive US-supplied joint direct attack munitions, 2,000-pound bombs, fighter aircraft and no-strings-attached diplomatic support. The man can apparently do no wrong in the eyes of the Biden administration — or more accurately, he couldn’t do anything that would warrant even a minor, let alone substantive, adjustment in US policy.  But is that changing?