Israel

Ceasefire deals to end the war in Gaza have come and gone. President Biden’s unexpected announcement of the latest formula for a settlement, supposedly proposed by Israel, has already fallen by the wayside. In fact, Biden’s three-stage ceasefire deal looked remarkably like the previous ones: a six-week halt to fighting and withdrawal of Israeli troops from populated areas, with a release of some hostages in return for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners; a negotiated Israel/Hamas settlement for a permanent end to the war; and finally, comprehensive reconstruction of Gaza.

The war in Gaza is perceived internationally as a limited affair, pitting Israel against the Islamist Hamas organisation within the confines of a narrow strip of territory on the Mediterranean coast. This view has long been reductive. A number of other fronts are active as a result of the outbreak of war in Gaza. And one of them – Lebanon – is currently showing signs of erupting into full conflict. In November, the Yemeni Ansar Allah (Houthis) movement commenced their targeting of shipping in the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea. In the same month, the Iran-allied Shia militias in Iraq began attacks on Israel, and on US and allied forces in Iraq and Syria.

Joe Biden’s introduction of the three-stage deal to end the war in Gaza was a clever rout to bypass Benjamin Netanyahu. Biden has lost confidence in Netanyahu’s readiness to present things to the Israeli public, and to his own cabinet, in an honest and truthful way. By presenting the terms of the deal clearly and independently from Netanyahu’s spins, Biden was in full control of the message, in the hope that the Israeli public will back the deal and make it impossible for Netanyahu to back out of it.

No one can say the Iraq War was under-discussed. On the eve of the 2003 invasion, President George W. Bush and his advisors explained and defended Operation Iraqi Freedom to, among others, British prime minister Tony Blair, Saudi ambassador prince Bandar bin Sultan, the United Nations Security Council and skeptical members of Congress, the media and the American public. Bush even faced opposition from his own secretary of state, Colin Powell, who cautioned the president against invading Iraq with what would come to be known as the “Pottery Barn Rule”: if you break it, you own it. An experienced military leader, General Powell understood the complexities of war and the importance of having an exit strategy.

On 7 April, six months after the October massacres in southern Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told the public that the country was just ‘one step away from victory’ in its war against Hamas in Gaza. Nearly two months later, Israel hasn’t taken that step yet. The war continues. No more hostages have been released alive. Hamas rockets still fall inside Israel, including a barrage earlier this week that rained down on the suburbs of Tel Aviv. The two leaders of Israel’s war effort haven’t spoken to each other for a fortnight In the meantime, international public opinion has hardened against Israel. Some countries, like Colombia, have broken diplomatic relations. Turkey has announced a trade embargo.

The devastating fire that, according to Hamas, killed dozens of displaced civilians in Rafah and that reportedly started because of an Israeli attack on Hamas terrorists, has come at the worse possible time for Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu.  Four days ago, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled that Israel must immediately halt activities in Rafah. Although the language used by the court could imply that Israel may carry out some activities in the city as long as it conforms to its obligations under the Genocide Convention, there were international calls on Israel to cease all activities, and warnings of a disaster have sadly come true. Israel’s ability to carry on in Rafah may now be in doubt. Rafah is the last Hamas stronghold in Gaza.

After the atrocities committed by Hamas in southern Israel on 7 October, President Biden offered his total and unflinching support for retribution against the terrorist-designated rulers of the Gaza Strip. Benjamin ‘Bibi’ Netanyahu vowed to annihilate every member of Hamas and to gain the release of the 252 Israeli and foreign hostages abducted and taken into Gaza. Biden agreed that these objectives were right and proper. So, too, did the UK government and other like-minded nations, appalled by the images and reports of slaughter, rape and brutality by Hamas. Relations between Washington and Tel Aviv are not beyond repair Nearly eight months later, that policy of unflinching support for Israel has gone through several stages of doubt, alarm, dismay and anger.