Germany

If any one still doubts the merits of Britain controlling its own borders, look to Germany, says the Daily Telegraph. While it’s true that we still don't know who was responsible for this week’s devastating attack on a Berlin Christmas market, ‘Germany has already suffered fatal terrorism facilitated by the EU’s failure to control its borders,’ the paper says. The Telegraph goes on to say that, after Brexit, Britain will be able to renew its commitment to the ‘first duty of a state’ - ensuring ‘people’s security’. And all the signs of Theresa May’s leadership so far suggests the country is in good hands.

German party politics has been overshadowed by yesterday’s atrocity in Berlin. But in light of this tragic event, which Angela Merkel has said was probably a terrorist attack, party politics actually matters more than ever. Increasingly, it seems next year’s Bundestag elections will be the defining event of 2017, not just for Germany but for Europe - and last week’s change of government in Berlin was a sign of things to come. On the face of it, ‘Social Democrats take control of Berlin’s city council’ looks like an inconsequential story. Berlin has always been an SPD stronghold after all. However, there’s more to this story than meets the eye.

So far, the debate over what happens to UK-EU trade after Brexit has been conducted around a rather odd premise: that the EU will be out to punish Britain by cutting us off unless we sign up for continued membership of the single market, with free movement of people and contributions to the EU budget. Certainly, this is the impression which many EU leaders have been keen to create, and one which the 'Remain' lobby is more than happy to promulgate. Yet it sits rather uneasily with reality. As the Leave campaign consistently pointed out before the referendum, the EU would be mad to start a trade war because the rest of the EU sells more to us than we sell to the rest of the EU.

A year from now, 60 million Germans go to the polls in the most important general election in mainland Europe for a generation. The result will define German — and European — politics for the next four years. There are huge questions to be resolved, from the refugee crisis to the financial crisis, but right now the question in Germany is: will Mutti run again? Angela Merkel’s nickname, Mutti (Mummy) is a memento of happier times. A year ago, her position as matriarch of the Bundesrepublik seemed unassailable. And then, last September, she opened Germany’s borders to hundreds of thousands of fleeing Syrians. Over a million refugees arrived last year. The reaction of native Germans could be measured at the polling booths.

Mathias Döpfner, the extremely tall, extremely intelligent head of Axel Springer, is unusual in the generally conformist German business elite because he is not an unqualified believer in the German economic model. I have known him slightly for about 20 years and have always been interested by his questing, speculative mind. We have had conversations about the freer, Anglosphere model of economic life which he admires. Although he is not anti-EU — that is still almost against the law in Germany — he is sceptical of its direction. Now he has blasphemed in the EU’s main church in Britain — the Financial Times — by telling the paper that within three to five years he would expect Britain, as a result of Brexit, to be better off than its former EU partners.

The cheerful, nattily dressed Englishman checking out at my hotel in Mykonos as I was checking in with my daughter looked shocked as he scrutinised his bill: 'What's the VAT? Twenty-four percent? How can that be?' I instantly violated my pledge to my daughter not to embarrass her by talking politics on vacation. 'You can thank Wolfgang Schäuble and the Germans,' I told the man. 'Austerity politics and all that.' My new acquaintance pondered what I was saying -- 'Is that so?' he said, or something to that effect -- then quickly changed the subject to the charm of cobblestone and the local nightlife. I didn't ask him how he had voted on Brexit, but I wish I had, for an incendiary political idea was beginning to form in my mind.

‘When the world ends, I’ll go to Mecklenburg,’ quipped Bismarck, ‘because there, everything happens a hundred years later.’ Mecklenburg-Vorpommern has always been seen as somewhere behind the times, but has this sleepy backwater now become a portent of momentous things to come? In last weekend’s regional elections, Germany’s fledgling anti-immigration party, Alternative für Deutschland, came second, pushing Angela Merkel’s CDU into third place – in her own constituency. So was AfD’s Leif-Erik Holm right to say that this could be the beginning of the end for Merkel? And does this shock result mark the end of the beginning for AfD?

Britain’s decision to leave the EU sent shockwaves crashing throughout the continent. As Europe struggled to interpret the outcome of the referendum, we heard calls for Brussels to drive a hard bargain with the UK in order to contain the 'Brexit contagion'. The European Council President Donald Tusk's warning that the UK must not be allowed to 'profit' from leaving the bloc summed up this mood. But now, it seems, our neighbours in Europe are coming to terms with Brexit. And with it, the desire to punish the UK appears to be dampening. Michael Roth, Germany's European Affairs minister, has this week suggested that a 'special status' could be achieved which would take into account Britain’s size and previous commitment to the European project.

Is the tide in Germany turning against Turkey? It certainly seems to be. A poll today shows a majority of Germans favour ending the refugee deal agreed between the EU and Turkey back in March. The agreement has helped stem the flow of migrants flooding into Europe, making a repeat of the 1.1m people who arrived in Germany last year unlikely. But the deal came at a price: Turkey won a renewal of aid, the prospect of visa free travel for its people across Europe and the biggest prize of all - 're-energized' EU membership talks. Yet for all the bluster talked about the EU deal, it seems that many Germans are not happy with it and want it to end.

A new British Prime Minister is always big news on the continent and around the world. This time around, with Mrs May tasked with redefining Britain’s relationship with the EU, the foreign press has taken a special interest in recent events in Downing Street. One of the big stories aside from Britain's new Prime Minister taking up her role is Theresa May's decision to make Boris Johnson Foreign Secretary. Here's how the press around the world reacted to the news: France: With France bracing itself for a protracted period of arduous negotiations with the UK, Britain's new Prime Minister is big news across the Channel. Le Figaro goes as far as to brand Theresa May Britain’s new 'Iron Lady'.