George osborne

If this was a Budget for Sun readers, then it hasn't quite worked out as well as George Osborne might have hoped. The newspaper sounded pretty cheery this morning with its story about the beer duty escalator. But here's the front page for tomorrow's edition: Now, this is clearly as much about Leveson and the newspaper's industry disgust that it wasn't consulted when the lobbying group Hacked Off was invited to the late night negotiations as it is about the measures announced today. But there's also the point that Fraser makes tirelessly on this blog that politicians like to be lazy at best when it comes to talking about debt and the deficit. One of the bullet points reminds readers that the government isn't 'paying down its debts' as David Cameron has said before: 'Debt!

A fascinating poll result from Ipsos MORI today. They ask, essentially, whether people agree with the government's 'Plan A' or Labour's 'Plan B'. Specifically, they ask: 'People have different ideas about the best way of dealing with Britain’s economic difficulties. Which of the following do you most agree with? A1: Britain has a debt problem, built up over many years, and we have got to deal with it. If we don’t, interest rates will soar. That’s why tackling the deficit and keeping interest rates low should be our top priority. OR B1: Without growth in our economy, we are not getting the deficit down and are borrowing more. We need more government spending on investment to kick-start our economy and a temporary cut in taxes to support growth.

I think it is fair to say that Dr Liam Fox has never been one of David Cameron's chief chums. The former Defence Secretary has, as Paul Goodman notes, been closer to George Osborne. Be that as it may, his speech today is a fine reminder of Dr Fox's political limitations. This is the kind of stuff - and the kind of man, frankly - that helps explain why the Conservative party has not won a general election majority since 1992. Think on that and think on how much Britain has changed these past 21 years and how little the Tory party has. Dr Fox ignored all this, delivering a call to arms like it was 1981 All Over Again. But it is not. According to Fox, however: The great socialist coup of the last decade was making wealth an embarrassment. It is not.

The idea of an ‘empty budget’ later this month is disappointing those who backed George Osborne in the hope of his fixing the problems he so eloquently outlined in opposition. If Brown proposed cutting the deficit by 33 per cent over two years, newspapers who criticised him at the time for lacking ambition — as Osborne did — can hardly be expected to applaud the Chancellor for cutting it by just 25 per cent over three years. Faster progress is needed: on the deficit, and on economic growth. There are many tools that can be used and the Sunday Telegraph describes a few of them today in its leading article. It’s an important contribution to the debate. Here are its main points, and my take: 1. Cut taxes, especially corporation tax.

What sort of Budget will George Osborne unveil on 20 March? In this week's Spectator, Fraser Nelson predicts that it will be an empty one, devoid of radicalism. The piece outlines one meeting in which the Chancellor explained why he is feeling so cautious: Before every Budget, George Osborne always seeks the advice of various MPs. He usually doesn’t heed it but it’s a good way, he thinks, to keep the troops happy. As the economic headwinds have strengthened, this advice has tended to be increasingly radical and in a recent meeting with the Free Enterprise Group of Tory MPs, the Chancellor made clear he was in no mood for it. ‘Look,’ he told them, ‘I tried radicalism in last year’s Budget, and I had blowback for it.

Panic, once let loose, is hard to corral. And there seems to be plenty of panic on the Tory benches at Westminster. The Eastleigh by-election result, the stagnant economy and the rising sense that the Prime Minister has somehow lost his way all contribute to this. Each fresh setback - or perceived setback - now has an impact disproportionate to the actual size or importance of the problem. These things are no longer measured on a linear scale. Read, for instance, Ben Brogan's analysis in today's Telegraph and you will perceive an under-current of deep panic presently afflicting the Tory tribe in London. Similarly, when Paul Goodman is writing - correctly, I think - that a post-2015 leadership campaign has already, if quietly, begun you can sense the fear in Tory ranks.

The 2013 budget promises to be a milestone for David Cameron's government. George Osborne is under pressure to avoid the 'omnishambles budget' of last year. As well as satisfying his increasingly-militant ministers, angry backbenchers and coalition partners, the window for making a real difference in time for the next election is closing. Any seismic shifts planned by Osborne and Cameron will have to be made soon. Coffee House will be providing extensive coverage throughout the day but we're delighted to offer something special. On the evening of 20 March, the Spectator will be hosting a special event in central London with Fraser Nelson and James Forsyth.