George osborne

George Osborne has a funny way of saying 'happy new year'. In his speech in Birmingham this morning, the Chancellor will describe 2014 as the year of 'hard truths' about how much more spending needs to be cut in order to close the deficit. So why is the Chancellor kicking off what most commentators are billing as an extremely long general election campaign with a bleak message about more cuts to come? In 2010, the three main parties did everything they could do avoid talking about the detail of the challenge on public spending.

For the Conservative party, 2013 has been the year of Lynton Crosby. Just over a year ago, the Wizard of Oz was appointed David Cameron’s chief election strategist. Now he’s full-time. His brief is to make sure the Tories in government have a clear message – something that eluded them in the 2010 campaign. And to see that the message is articulated in deeds, not words. In April, the Prime Minister described his own strategy by using a quote from the late Keith Joseph: ‘the right thing to do is to address the things people care about; to fix yourself firmly in what Keith Joseph called the “common ground” of politics’. As opposed to the middle ground of Westminster. Here’s the six top incursions into this middle ground. 1.

The ONS has today revised upwards its growth for most of 2013, to show a recovery far stronger than it admitted at the time. This fits a trend: in economics, good luck tends to come in waves. And the tools economists have to work out what's happening are so crude (and often useless) that it takes years to work out what really happened. Only in 2011, for example, was it clear that Gordon Brown had incubated the worst economic overheating since the war - hence the crash. But by the time this was clear, everyone blamed bankers for the crash - when, in fact, it was just reckless economic management. Which all the economists, with their 'output gap' spreadsheets, missed. Remember the triple dip? The above graph, from Citi (pdf), shows what nonsense that turned out to be.

Now that the economy is recovering and George Osborne has overtaken Ed Balls in the polls for having the best economic policies, he may be forgiven for wondering if wider rehabilitation is next. The Chancellor's allies have long seen him as the man who will succeed David Cameron, perhaps in 2018, and imagine that his problem — looking too young — will remedy itself and that his personal popularity will recover along with the economy. Today's polls suggest this isn't happening - at least, not yet. While the Chancellor's professional reputation is recovering from the omnishambolic 2012 budget his personal reputation is still pretty low.

We already knew that welfare would be a key dividing line for George Osborne at the next election. He set up the dividing lines in the emergency budget and comprehensive spending review in 2010, and they have largely stuck, which is a testament to the Chancellor's skill as a strategist. But at today's Treasury Select Committee, Osborne thickened those dividing lines with Labour by saying that the welfare budget must take another billions of pounds' worth of cuts. It was the language that Osborne used, as much as anything else, that revealed how the 2015 debate will pan out. He said: 'My view is that welfare expenditure cannot be excluded from the difficult decisions that need to be made.

When George Osborne paid tribute to the 'march of the makers' in his 2011 Budget, few thought the Chancellor was secretly plotting to join the march himself. But as part of his tour of #hardworkingpeople, Osborne hasn't just been pointing at things, like normal politicians: he's been making things too. Today he made a cake: But he's also made bread: And made parts for JCB, working in this picture with a stud gun: In fact, Osborne likes making vehicles.

At the beginning of the autumn, strategists from all three parties assumed that the theme of the season would be Labour’s poll lead narrowing as the economic recovery picked up pace. But that hasn’t happened. Instead, Labour’s lead has remained and its own poll numbers have actually ticked up. This is, largely, thanks to Ed Miliband’s reframing of the political debate about the economy, making it about living standards But the autumn statement showed that when the political conversation is focused on the broader economy, the Tories have the better of it. Thursday has weakened Ed Balls, strengthened George Osborne and begun to move the political debate off Labour’s turf of living standards and back onto the Tory question of economic competence.

When George Osborne stands up next week to deliver the autumn statement, he’ll have some good news to deliver. Not only is autumn, the dreariest of the British seasons over, but borrowing has come in lower than expected and the OBR will upgrade the growth forecasts. But the return of growth, as I say in the magazine this week, poses a strategic dilemma for Osborne. If he declares the economic emergency over, the public might conclude it was safe to turn back to Labour. But equally he has to show voters that he’s sharing the proceeds of growth. I suspect that Osborne will steer clear of too many sweetners.

There is still a great deal of heat and rather a little less light over George Osborne's decision to 'step in where government needs to step in' and cap the cost of payday loans. Does this mean he's actually a lefty? What is he up to? Writing for the Telegraph, David Skelton, founder of the very thoughtful Renewal campaign to broaden the Conservative party's appeal, argues that this is 'the right thing to do and it sends a powerful signal that the party will tackle rip-off companies and help the vulnerable'.

Stella Creasy sees today's announcement that the government does want to cap the cost of payday loan credit as a recognition that Labour was right to campaign on this issue and that consumers are suffering as a result of the current arrangements. But listen again to George Osborne's Today interview and you'll note another recognition: that Ed Miliband and colleagues are enjoying some success when they talk about markets not working for consumers.