Europe

Friday

James Forsyth

Greece needs to quit the eurozone

The Greek people are being crucified on a cross of euros. Unemployment there is 21 per cent and rising fast and the austerity pact that its politicians have cobbled together to try and receive the next tranche of bailout cash will make things far worse. It is in the interests of the Greek people for the country to default and devalue but this, obviously, isn’t possible with Greece inside the eurozone. There are elections in Greece in April and it is to be hoped that one of the main parties there has the courage to break from the view that Greece must stay in the eurozone regardless of the cost.

Wednesday

Alex Massie

Size Matters: Dysfunctional Government Edition

Via Andrew, Francis Fukuyama has a new gig at Stanford University running a Governance Project. Introducing it, he lobs a hand grenade at one aspect of American Exceptionalism:   I would argue that the quality of governance in the US tends to be low precisely because of a continuing tradition of Jacksonian populism. Americans with their democratic roots generally do not trust elite bureaucrats to the extent that the French, Germans, British, or Japanese have in years past. This distrust leads to micromanagement by Congress through proliferating rules and complex, self-contradictory legislative mandates which make poor quality governance a self-fulfilling prophecy. The US is thus caught in a low-level equilibrium

Tuesday

Douglas Murray

Ignore the European Court and deport Abu Qatada tonight

The Al-Qaeda preacher Abu Qatada is a Jordanian national who is in the UK illegally (having come here in 1993 on a forged United Arab Emirates passport). The headache he has caused successive UK governments looks like finally reaching a peak. But there is a simple solution to the problem he poses. Last month, not only for the first time in the decade-long Qatada process, but for the first time ever in an extradition case, the European Court of Human Rights cited Article 6 ‘rights to fair trial’ to ensure that Abu Qatada could not be returned to Jordan. The Court had previously played around in the Qatada case only

Daniel Korski

Where has the pro-EU camp gone?

Did you see that amazing article by a group of pro-EU businesspeople? What about that clever ad paid for by ‘Better To Be In’, the new pro-EU lobby group? Nope, me neither. The reason we haven’t seen anything like that is because the pro-European camp in Britain is in total disarray. Like a beaten army, it is withdrawing in a state of confusion, while some diehards stage energetic but un-strategic counterattacks against the advancing Eurosceptic forces. A letter from pro-EU businessmen was, frankly, unimpressive: the signatories were hardly a who’s who of Britain’s business community, and even included some former officials. Hardly a show of strength. But yesterday’s letter from

Monday

James Forsyth

Cameron's coming battle over the ECHR

The coming release of Abu Qatada on bail is going to put bellows under the whole debate about the European Court of Human Rights. In his recent speech to the Council of Europe, David Cameron rightly protested about a situation with terror suspects in which ‘you cannot try them, you cannot detain them and you cannot deport them.’ We will now find out how quickly Cameron is prepared to act on this issue. If Cameron wants to makes changes to the Courts and the Convention, then he is going to have to get agreement from every member of the Council of Europe. There’s no guarantee that he’ll be able to

Thursday

Daniel Korski

Don't expect repatriation in this Parliament

When David Cameron wielded his veto at the European Council in December many Tories thought this was the beginning of a process of repatriation of powers from the EU. Myself, I thought it would be the high water mark of the government’s Euro-scepticism — and so it has proven. But things are about to get even worse for the Bill Cashes of this Parliament. In the short-term, at least.   Why so? Well, the government appears to be concluding that it will not get a receptive ear from its European partners on any repatriation bid. The other European leaders are simply too busy fixing the euro to even read any

Tuesday

Peter Hoskin

Cameron cheered by the Lib Dems, spared by the Tories, mocked by Labour

If you wanted proof that Cameron has softened his stance towards Europe since the hard chill of December, then just look to the Lib Dems. Nick Clegg, unlike then, was sat next to the Prime Minister as he gave his statement to the Commons this afternoon. And the questions that followed from the likes of Menzies Campbell and Simon Hughes were generally warm and approving. Campbell started by, in his words, ‘praising the pragmatism of the PM’. Hughes celebrated a ‘more successful and satisfactory summit than the one in December’. That praise, while friendly enough, creates obvious problems for Cameron — and it was those problems that Ed Miliband sought

Monday

Peter Hoskin

Cameron softens his stance on Europe — but who benefits?

‘We will insist that the EU institutions — the court, the commission — that they work for all 27 nations of the EU.’ So said David Cameron, back in December, suggesting that he’d block Europe’s ‘fiscal compact’ countries from using EU-wide institutions to enforce their, er, fiscal compact. But now this component of his ‘veto’ appears to have come to naught, and that veto is looking all the thinner for it. On the Today Programme this morning, William Hague confirmed that Britain wouldn’t block the use of EU institutions, such as the court, for the fiscal union. ‘We’re not intending to take action about that now,’ is how he put

Peter Hoskin

Greece is still the word ahead of today's eurosummit

How about this for a claim by Nicolas Sarkozy, made in a TV appearance yesterday? ‘Europe is no longer at the edge of the cliff.’ It’s quite some statement, so let’s hear it again: ‘Europe is no longer at the edge of the cliff.’ Of course, Sarkozy has reasons for saying it beyond mere pre-electoral braggadocio: the rates paid on Italian and Spanish 10-year bonds have generally been falling since the the beginning of the year; the euro has been making some tentative progress against other currencies; and so on. But it still constrasts heavily with much else that is being said around the eurozone. Only last week, Angela Merkel

Friday

Fraser Nelson

Osborne needs to come up with radical growth policies, and soon

When it comes to defending the free market, and making the case for fiscal sanity, there’s scarcely anyone better than David Cameron. He was on superb form in Davos yesterday, giving much-needed blunt advice to the continentals. ‘Eurozone countries must do everything possible to get to grips with their own debts,’ he said. And he’s right. The snag, as I say in my Daily Telegraph column today, is that Cameron’s definition of getting to grips with debt involves increasing it more than Labour planned to, more than France, Germany, Italy or Portugal. On the first sign of trouble, his government gave up on its deficit reduction timetable – it will now

Thursday

Peter Hoskin

Dave in Davos

Reading Cameron’s speech to the suits in Davos, one thing stands out: he’s in no mood to stop ‘lecturing’ the eurozone, as Nicolas Sarkozy would put it. The whole thing is saturated with firm advice for our European brethren, from generalities such as ‘Tinkering here and there and hoping we’ll drift to a solution simply won’t cut it any more,’ to specific policies that the Continent should introduce so that it can ‘recover its dynamism’. He even found space to attack the ‘madness’ of a Tobin tax, as well as to hawk the coalition’s deficit-reduction plan. It’s the sort of advice that could, of course, put Cameron further at odds

Wednesday

James Forsyth

Europe gives Osborne the context he needs

The political implications of today’s growth numbers are complex. On one level, a contraction in the economy should provide Miliband and Balls with an opportunity to make their economic case against the government. Indeed, Balls is already out with a statement calling the GDP figures a ‘damning indictment of David Cameron and George Osborne’s failed economic plan’. I suspect that Miliband is also looking forward to PMQs rather more than normal.   But on the other hand, as long as Cameron and Osborne enjoy a big lead on the economy — 18 points in the last ICM survey — bad economic news will reinforce voters’ tendency to stick close to

Monday

James Forsyth

A Chris Huhne prediction that didn’t come true

Chris Huhne attacked David Cameron for the EU veto in Cabinet back in December. At the time, one Cabinet minister told me that part of Huhne’s critique was that Cameron had scuppered the chances of a Liberal Democrat MEP, Sharon Bowles, being reelected as chair of the European Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee, which deals with financial services.   But Bowles has been reelected. In a Lib Dem press release welcoming this, Nick Clegg declares that: ‘As party leader, I am proud that we have a leading Liberal Democrat in such a prominent and powerful position on the international scene. As UK Deputy Prime Minister, I am delighted and

Daniel Korski

Welcome, Croatia

Croatia’s EU referendum was overwhelming — more than two-thirds of voters favoured the young state’s accession to the European Union. This is an important moment. For it shows that another part of Yugoslavia is intent on leaving its violent past behind and move into the European mainstream. Croatia and its newly-elected government still faces many problems — corruption, judicial favouritism and xenophobia among them — but the journey to a milder and more moderate society can now continue.   When Croatia accedes to the EU, probably next year, it will be an example to those states in the Balkans, like Bosnia, Albania and Serbia, that wish to join the EU

Monday

Peter Hoskin

Osborne visits China, but can't escape Europe

Yet another day here in Westminster that’s all about the economy. Nick Clegg has just delivered a speech on the subject to Mansion House, focusing on ‘responsible capitalism’, which we’ll blog shortly. And two prominent forecasting groups, the Ernst & Young ITEM Club and the Centre for Economic and Business Research, have suggested that we’re effectively back in recession. They both reckon that the economy shrank in the final quarter of last year, and is wilting even further in this current quarter. But, like the OECD, they also predict that this ‘double dip’ will be relatively short-lived and relatively mild. Against that backdrop, enter George Osborne. The Chancellor spoke from

Friday

Alex Massie

The Pound, the Euro and Other Scottish Pink Herrings

The crisis in euroland continues unstaunched and, perhaps, irrevocably. Naturally, being self-obsessed sorts and this being the week it is, one is drawn to consider the impact this must have on Alex Salmond and the prospects for Scottish independence. Plainly, the currency question is a difficult one for the First Minister. While the euro seemed solid it was at least straightforward, even though one wondered if swapping monetary policy set by the Bank of England for monetary policy set by the European Central Bank would necessarily be a great bargain. But the euro is no longer solid and uncertainty reigns. So one can appreciate why George Osborne has intervened, arguing

James Forsyth

S&P to downgrade France and Austria

The word is that France will be downgraded by Standard and Poor’s tonight. AFP is reporting that French officials expect France to drop to a AA+ rating, losing its treasured AAA status and increasing how much it will have to pay to borrow money. 2012 has, so far, been relatively quiet on the euro front. But expect the issue to return to centre stage over the coming weeks. There are the downgrades coming tonight – France is apparently not the only eurozone country that S&P will mark down with Austria set to lose its AAA rating too – and a coercive and chaotic Greek default seems increasingly likely. Add to

Thursday

James Forsyth

Would Spain stop Scotland from joining the EU?

Alex Salmond’s case for independence relies on Scotland joining the European Union. If an independent Scotland was a member of the EU, then Scotland would be part of the single market and free movement of labour across the border could continue (an independent Scotland would also have to join the euro, but that’s something Salmond is less keen to talk about). But, as one Whitehall source points out to me, it is far from certain that Scotland would be able to join the EU.   The Spanish are currently blocking Kosovo’s accession to the EU. Why? Because the Spanish, who don’t even recognise Kosovo as a state, fear the implications

Tuesday

Daniel Korski

A taxing kind of spin

The story being briefed out of the year’s first Franco-German Summit is that President Nicolas Sarkozy won the backing of Chancellor Angela Merkel for a tax on financial transactions, a levy that the British government objects to and that Ernst and Young say would leave a €116bn hole in Europe’s public finances. But before the City begins building barricades and the PM puts on his bulldog mask, it is worth taking another look at the news from Berlin. For no sooner had the agreement been announced than the tax was rejected by Chancellor Merkel’s junior coalition partner, the pro-business Free Democrats, who say they will only back a Europe-wide tax