Ed miliband

As well as keeping the tax avoidance row going for as long as possible (something that is worrying Tories, who think their party needs to find a way of moving the conversation on from a toxic issue as quickly as possible), Ed Miliband also unveiled a potential new campaign message at his speech today. He talked about ‘a better plan for working people, a better plan for Britain’. The 79-page document that launched alongside it was entitled ‘Better Plan for Britain’s Prosperity’.

Last week was Labour’s best of the campaign so far and the Tories’ worst. The row over tax avoidance and Lord Fink’s comments reinforced the damaging perception that the Tories are the party of the rich. It also raised Labour morale, frontbenchers who used to be pessimistic about the party’s electoral prospects are now bullish. But there is a danger that this tactical victory could turn into a strategic defeat. For Miliband by denouncing tax avoidance—which is legal—and setting himself up as a moral arbiter on the issue, has made his tax affairs and those of his shadow Cabinet, MPs and donors a legitimate subject of public interest. They no longer just have to be legal and fully declared, they also have to pass the higher Miliband bar.

Ed Miliband’s party has ended up having a reasonably good week, even though it’s been a pretty tough battle. Today’s front pages have not been good at all, something the party leader’s supporters are obviously disappointed by, but given the story about a comparison between the row about Lord Fink’s tax affairs and the hacking of Milly Dowler’s phone was made by an aide, not Miliband, and then reported in a way that was initially misinterpreted, the focus of the row is not Miliband himself. The line about Miliband's own tax affairs was inevitable, too. But it depends whether anyone can find anything to continue the story.

This morning, there was much Westminster chatter about whether Ed Miliband would repeat his accusation made at PMQs yesterday about the ‘tax avoidance activities of Lord Fink’. But shortly before Miliband spoke, Fink himself gave an interview to The Standard in which he said, ‘I didn’t object to his use of the word "tax avoidance". Because you are right: tax avoidance, everyone does it.' Instead, Fink claimed that his objection was to the implication that he was one of the ‘dodgy donors’ that Miliband was talking about. Now, Fink’s letter of complaint to Miliband yesterday didn’t mention the word ‘dodgy’. After his speech today, Miliband tellingly refused to call Fink ‘dodgy’.

In some respects David Cameron has been a lucky politician. Lucky that his predecessors had failed so completely that his initial brand of so-called modernisation seemed a punt worth taking. Lucky that he faced Gordon Brown, not Tony Blair. Lucky that he could pivot from 'sharing the proceeds of growth' to 'we're all in it together' without too many people noticing (or caring too much). Lucky, above all, that he now faces Ed Miliband. Because however you dress it up, this has not been a happy government. In economic terms - the defining issue of the age - his party has missed many of its most important targets. Functionally-speaking, George Osborne's record in office has followed Alistair Darling's 2010 plans more than it resembles Osborne's own projections from five years ago.

Entering ‘Politicians are…’ into the Google search bar brings predictable results. Well, mostly. In amongst ‘liars’, ‘scum’ and ‘all the same’, Google suggests ‘lizards’: David Icke’s reptilian illuminati are still in the spotlight. Number five on the list is predictable: politicians are ‘out of touch’. Minding the gap has been central to British politics for years. Politicians, the line goes, are out of touch with reality, and, to make things worse, spend their whole time in Westminster, only visiting their constituencies to try to hang onto the seat. Yet some canny MPs are beginning to change this impression. This is the first general election where social media will be truly pervasive.

Have the Tories benefited from Labour’s week of misery? In Lord Ashcroft’s latest national poll, the Conservatives are now three points ahead of Labour — up from 30 per cent in last week’s poll. The Green Party are down to six per cent, the Lib Dems are up slightly to nine per cent and Ukip are down one point to 14 per cent. See the chart above for how the voting preferences have changed in Ashcroft’s polls this year. David Cameron personally continues to do well: nearly 60 per cent would prefer him as Prime Minister to Ed Miliband.