David cameron

It was a nice touch that MPs sat in each other’s seats in the Commons during the tributes to Jo Cox on Monday. I hope it helped remind Tories where they’ll be sitting permanently after 2020 if they don’t bind the party’s wounds on Friday. If Remain wins, then everyone must coalesce around David Cameron; if it’s Leave then Michael Gove. These things were managed much better before 1965 when the Queen decided on Tory leaders. For all his reservations about the premiership, Gove wouldn’t refuse Her Majesty’s request to form a government, not in the year of her 90th birthday. How do you think Jeremy Corbyn voted in the privacy of the booth?

Just wondering: is there anyone out there who actually remembers supporting Turkish membership of the EU? Last night Sadiq Khan said the Brexit camp had been scaremongering with its 'big fat lie' that Turkey would join any time soon. (NB: Sadiq was a bit free with the 'lie' word; a generation ago, its use would have caused real offence; two generations ago he’d have been called out by the person he accused of being a liar. Ruth Davidson was more measured with her use of 'untruth'.)  And Boris Johnson did look a bit abashed, though his retort ('I am a Turk') got lost in the exchanges. For he too was one of the most eloquent supporters of the Turkish bid when he was editor of this paper.

David Cameron has boiled down his entire EU referendum campaign into a single word: together. The Prime Minister made one of his final pitches to Britain on the Today programme just now. But despite doing his best to put forward the positive case for staying in, he still came unstuck on the age-old issue of migration. He was repeatedly quizzed on his net migration target to reduce numbers to the tens of thousands. We knew before that this is, to say the least, a tricky subject for Cameron. And he didn't offer much in the way of substance to salve voters' worries. Instead, when immigration came up, he flipped the discussion to being one about the economy.

David Cameron has just given a rather bizarre statement in Downing Street pleading with voters to back Remain on Thursday. It was rather bizarre firstly because it didn’t contain anything new at all, and was just a restatement of the case for staying in the bloc, and secondly because it was in Downing Street, which is government property. The guidance from the Cabinet Office states that: ‘Government property should not be used for campaigning. Requests from campaigning groups to use government buildings for campaign purposes must be declined.’ Number 10 sources say that the clear guidance from officials was that this statement was within the rules. And Vote Leave sources say that ‘the Prime Minister said nothing new. There’s nothing to respond to’.

A vote to leave the EU would cause economic Armageddon. We know because David Cameron and George Osborne have told us so, claiming that there is a wide consensus among economists on the matter. But what if – as now seems increasingly likely – we vote to remain but then have a recession anyway? The Prime Minister and the Chancellor are very quick to quote economists when making the case for us to stay in the EU, saying we should listen to the experts. They would do well to listen to what the experts are saying about the chances of a recession.  A Wall Street Journal survey in May put the chances of a recession in the next 12 months at 20 per cent.

So long as the economy was at the top of the agenda, 'Remain' will have felt safe in the knowledge that 'Leave' could do little to win over the public's trust. But today, the Prime Minister has his former aide and friend Steve Hilton to thank for bringing the issue of migration soaring back into the headlines. What's particularly dangerous for the Government about what Steve Hilton had to say is his claim that the PM was directly told in 2012 that meeting the promise to bring net migration down to the 'tens of thousands' was impossible.

Fraser Nelson and Nick Cohen discuss The Spectator's decision to back Brexit: The Ipsos MORI phone poll released this morning shows a dramatic turnaround since its last poll which had a double digit advantage for Remain. Leave is now six points ahead amongst those likely to vote. This means that Leave has been ahead in 7 out of the last 10 polls and 2 of the last 4 phone polls. Almost as worrying for the Remain campaign as the headline number is what the internals of the Ipsos MORI poll show. In a change from last month, immigration is now the top issue for people in this referendum, overtaking the economy. Alarmingly for IN, 70% percent of people don’t believe the Treasury’s claim that households wold be £4,300 worse off after Brexit.

The best thing that can be said for David Cameron’s current predicament is that he has been here before. His career has been punctuated by moments when the polls and the pundits have said he was done for. In 2007, with the new Prime Minister Gordon Brown enjoying a honey-moon and considering a snap election, this magazine pictured him on the cover with a noose and the headline ‘Get out of this, Dave’. He did. At times, even he has thought his leadership was over. On election day last year, he spent the early evening rehearsing his resignation speech to his closest aides. Hours later, he was hailing the ‘sweetest victory of all’. It was the Scottish referendum two years ago that caused Cameron the most worry.