David cameron

Momentum in the 'Leave' campaign seems to be growing after Brexit took the lead in two polls out today. There are, however, still several weeks until the actual day of the EU referendum and the gap between the two sides remains marginal (four per cent). But 'Remain' still seem shaken by these polls. Here's how they spent the day fighting back: David Cameron said Brexit would put a bomb under Britain's economy, going on to say that 'the worst thing is, we would have lit the fuse ourselves': The PM was backed up Lib Dem leader Tim Farron. In a joint event, Farron said the argument for 'Leave' was built on 'utter, invented rubbish': But in the tit-for-tat battle which is the EU referendum, the 'Leave' campaign also went on the offensive today.

After last week’s featherweight entrants, we were onto some seriously heavyweight fibs this week. In truth there were only two contenders in this week’s EU dishonesty stakes. The first was Jeremy Corbyn’s lacklustre attempt to explain why after a lifetime’s Euroscepticism he is backing ‘Remain’. Here is how the BBC captured the excitement of Corbyn’s speech: ‘The Labour leader said the EU could "deliver positive change" on issues ranging from mobile phone charges to clean beaches and protecting bees.’ Gosh. Well sign me up. Of course all the brightest and most honourable members of the Labour party – Frank Field, Gisela Stuart, Kate Hoey – are campaigning for ‘Leave’.

The Leave campaign have had their best week of the campaign this week. After months of being battered by the Whitehall machine, they’ve taken advantage of purdah silencing government departments to get themselves onto the front foot. As I write in The Sun this morning, even IN supporting Cabinet Ministers admit that Leave have had a good week. But they argue that they won’t be able to ride the immigration issue to victory on June 23rd. One argues that you can’t focus on immigration week after week, or ‘By week four, you end up sounding like Nigel Farage’. But Vote Leave think their trump card is the link between immigration and people’s pay packets. That is the economic argument they are confident they will win.

This EU referendum is a particularly difficult contest to poll and after the general election we all should be wary of treating them as gospel. But there’s no getting away from the fact that the mood in Westminster—and on the two campaigns—is heavily influenced by the polls. The recent good numbers for Leave have put a string in its step. They have also ensured that Vote Leave’s focus on immigration in the last few days isn’t seen as the last roll of the dice but as an attempt to focus on one of its strongest areas. Interestingly, influential figures on the Remain side privately accept that the referendum appears to have tightened up in the past few days.

The absence of an outline of a post-exit immigration regime is a serious gap in the Referendum debate. That need not be so. There is a fairly clear way ahead: to minimise disruption, while achieving control of numbers. The key element that needs to be controlled is migration for work (which accounts for the bulk of net EU migration). This could be sharply reduced if EU immigrants were subject to the same requirement for work permits as now currently apply to non-EU workers: the aim would be to reduce the overall scale of immigration without losing the economic benefit of highly skilled immigration. By doing this, net migration – 330,000 last year – could be cut by about 100,000 per year.

Although Mark Carney has warned that a Brexit is the 'biggest domestic risk to financial stability', his predecessor Mervyn King takes a somewhat different approach when it comes to the impending EU referendum. The former Bank of England governor used an appearance today at the Hay Festival to hit out at the 'wildly exagerated claims' made in the run-up to the vote. 'I wondered who would be the first to lower the tone,' King joshed when asked whether he thought Britain should stay or go.

The IN campaign’s plan for victory in this EU referendum is relatively simple.  ‘Do you want the status quo or the riskt alternative?’, is how one Cameron ally sums it up. To date, Remain—aided by the various government dossiers—have been pretty effective at pushing this message. That is why they are ahead in the polls. So, Vote Leave know that they need to push the risks of staying in, up the agenda. I write in The Sun this morning that their message in the coming weeks will be that ‘wages will be lower and taxes will be higher if stay in the EU’. Their argument will be that the continuing troubles in the Eurozone will hit the UK in two ways.