Conservatives

Sohrab Ahmari Modern American conservatism is composed of three distinct traditions: libertarian economics, foreign-policy hawkism and social traditionalism. This “fusion” was born of a contingent historical moment, the Cold War, when the Soviet threat forced different social classes and their ideological spokesmen to band together in common cause. There was no eternal principle demanding that these groups tie their destinies together — a fact that became apparent with Donald Trump’s rise, which divided the three camps along various axes of alliance and enmity. Fusionism is dead. Well and truly dead.

Rishi Sunak – Brexit vote and Ukraine resistance 'are not analogous' The Chancellor was in the TV studios this morning, ahead of the Spring Statement that he will deliver on Wednesday. Economic issues, like much else, have been cast into the shadows over recent weeks as the spotlight has inevitably focused on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Even today was no exception, as in his interview with the BBC's Sophie Raworth, Rishi Sunak was first asked to address a stir caused by the Prime Minister’s remarks at the Conservative’s spring conference yesterday in Blackpool: https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1505486969094168581?

As the Conservative party’s Spring Forum gets underway in Blackpool, attention is turning back to domestic politics, with cabinet ministers publicly suggesting partygate is over – or more specifically that it is ‘fluff’ according to Jacob Rees-Mogg. A debate about tax is also underway on the fringes as Rishi Sunak continues to insist that he is a low tax Tory despite much of his behaviour since entering No. 11 suggesting the opposite. When the Chancellor unveils the spring statement next week, MPs hope there will be an indication of Sunak’s alleged tax cutting preferences. While the National Insurance hike is now viewed as baked in, there’s speculation that there could be some form of tax cut elsewhere when it comes to boosting enterprise.

Boris Johnson certainly managed to rally the troops on their first day back from recess this afternoon as he told the Commons that all remaining domestic Covid restrictions were coming to an end.  The most explosive moments of the past few months haven't been about the continuation of Covid restrictions From this Thursday, the legal requirement to self-isolate following a positive test will come to an end. Until 1 April, people who test positive will be advised to stay at home, but after that 'we will encourage people with Covid-19 symptoms to exercise personal responsibility, just as we encourage people who may have flu to be considerate to others'.

Tobias Ellwood, the chair of the defence select committee, has this morning announced that he is sending a letter to the 1922 chairman calling for a no confidence vote in Boris Johnson. In a way this is not a surprise: Johnson cut Ellwood from the government when he became Prime Minister and the two are temperamentally very different. But the worry for No. 10 is that there are rather a lot of former ministers on the backbenches these days, and if a lot of them start writing letters then a no confidence vote will become a near certainty. Another concern for No. 10 this morning is whether they can live up to the expectations set in terms of the government’s change of direction and personnel.

The stench of death clings to Boris Johnson. Bury South MP Christian Wakeford has crossed the floor to join Labour. David Davis has told him to resign ‘in the name of God’. Tory MPs reportedly continue to hand in letters of no confidence to the 1922 Committee. Once they reach 54, there will be a vote of confidence. Fresh polling on the Red Wall, conducted by JL Partners for Channel 4, puts Labour at 48 per cent and 37 per cent for the Tories, a near inversion of the 2019 election result. Sir Graham Brady — and Sir Keir — should expect some more knocks on their doors. The revelation that Downing Street held lockdown-breaking parties, while the rest of the country was banned from being next to dying loved ones, is anathema to Red Wall voters.

Boris Johnson had hoped to move attention this week from parties — with a series of policy announcements planned as part of 'Operation Red Meat', his fightback plan. Nadine Dorries this afternoon told MPs in the Commons of plans to freeze the BBC licence fee for two years while No. 10 plan to bring the military in to tackle the channel crossings — a move that led MPs to congratulate the government on the Tory WhatsApp group. Yet as No. 10 waits for Sue Gray's report into Partygate, the situation is moving.

Talking to Tory MPs this morning, it is clear that the mood today is even worse than yesterday. Even one of those MPs closest to Boris Johnson thinks that it is now 50/50 whether enough letters go in to force a no confidence vote. Ironically, the improving Covid numbers are changing the calculus for some Tory MPs about a contest. A few weeks ago, even the most ardent Boris critics didn’t think you could have a no confidence vote, given the situation with the soaring Omicron variant. But now it is somewhat in retreat, and that restrictions are likely to go on 26 January giving hostile MPs the chance to do so. PMQs today is, obviously, an important moment. Lots of Tory MPs are holding off on replying to angry constituents until after it.

There are very few uncontroversial takes on what happened on January 6, 2021. Perhaps the only one is that that tumultuous day gave Americans a rare glimpse into what their republic looks like when its institutions fail. On the right, this would be taken to mean that the US election system, made up of fifty different state election regimes, failed to secure the ballot and that the mainstream media refused to report on obvious issues with the franchise. Even the judiciary, flush with judges appointed by President Trump, didn't hear the people. On the left, the same events are evidence that elections ought to be federalized to protect the vote, and that the Fourth Estate as a pillar of democracy requires buttressing against “disinformation” and outright sedition.

The first PMQs of the year gave us a preview of the political debate we’ll be having for the next few months. Labour went after the government on inflation. Angela Rayner asked Boris Johnson why he had dismissed fears over it as unfounded back in October: Johnson denied he had said it — which is an odd claim given what he said in that interview. She then punched the Tory bruise, by asking why Johnson wasn’t cutting VAT on fuel, as he had said he would do during the EU referendum. Johnson made the point that this help wouldn’t be well targeted, which is true. But the political pressure for this from Labour and his own backbenchers are going to make it very hard for him to resist.

When asked what went wrong in North Shropshire, Boris Johnson gave a fascinating answer: journalists. Apparently, they have been reporting the wrong kind of stuff. He told Sam Coates of Sky News: Basically, what’s been going wrong, Sam, is that in the last few weeks some things have been going well. But what the people have been hearing is just a constant litany of stuff about politics and politicians. Stuff that isn’t about them. And isn’t about the things that we can do to make life better. The job of the government is to make people like you, Sam, interested in the booster rollout. And in skills. And in housing. And in everything else that we’re doing. And unfortunately we haven’t been able to get the focus on those issues.

Just in time for the holidays, lawmakers will soon approve another increase to the country’s debt limit, perhaps by as much as $2.5 trillion. And like so many of us this time of year, Uncle Sam will continue running up his credit card, spending money on things he can’t afford and often doesn’t really need. That said, there’s little doubt that the coming debt ceiling hike is a necessary (if self-serving) gift from our nation’s capital. After all, legislators from both parties have already authorized trillions in spending, knowing full well the country’s dismal fiscal situation.

Conservatives are taking a lot of heat these days regarding masculinity. David French in a recent piece at The Atlantic criticized Josh Hammer, David Azerrad, and Donald Trump, among others, for promoting what French labels a false view of manliness — namely, one that is unafraid to speak unpopular truths regardless of the consequences. It is a farcical “Trumpist toughness” that “treat[s] Twitter as their Omaha Beach.” Washington Post columnist Christine Emba, meanwhile, recently mocked Republican Senator Josh Hawley for being a “champion of masculine virtue” but failing “to engage more deeply on the level of policy and ideas.

Taco Bell Patron in the year 2032: "What would you say if I called you a brutish fossil, symbolic of a decayed era gratefully forgotten?" John Spartan: "I don’t know…thanks?" — Demolition Man “Right wing builds its own echo chamber,” warns the headline from a short piece in Axios about conservatives creating their own media outlets and other institutions like publishers and cryptocurrencies and social networks. The headline is a play on a trope of the Big Tech age (provided you believe Axios is capable of such self-awareness).

Dealing with crime is a political necessity for the Tories, I say in the Times today. Whenever Labour outflanks them on the issue, as Tony Blair did, the Conservatives are in trouble. But law and order has taken on even more importance for this government because of its link to levelling up: Boris Johnson is convinced you can level up only if you deal with crime. He believes that places are poor because of crime, rather than the other way round. So, next week we’ll see a slew of announcements, with a particular focus on increasing drug rehabilitation efforts. Tackling crime and antisocial behaviour can show rapid progress The public are not sure what levelling up means but, as far as anyone can guess, dealing with disorder is seen to be part of it.