Brexit

In the next election, as in the last one, McDonnellism will prove a serious challenge to the Tories. John McDonnell, as chancellor, confirmed that in government, he and Jeremy Corbyn would make a full frontal attack on 40 years of economic and industrial orthodoxy, the precepts that markets know best and that our prosperity depends on trusting the private sector. During the first 30 years, this orthodoxy may have delivered relatively steady income growth for the economy as a whole. But over the full 40 years, we've seen the greatest shift in history between the share of national income that accrues to workers and what is taken by the owners and providers of capital.

Three events will dominate next week. The Supreme Court’s decision on the legality of prorogation, Labour conference and the UN General Assembly. As I say in The Sun this morning, Boris Johnson’s address in New York will be more ‘Green Giant’ than ‘Incredible Hulk’. He’ll stress the UK’s environmental credentials; announcing a new biodiversity fund designed to help save the African elephant, the black rhino and the pangolin. But more important than the speech he’ll make is the meetings that will take place in the margins. He’ll see most of the key players in the Brexit talks in New York, including a meeting with the Irish leader Leo Varadkar on Monday.

If Brexit can’t be sorted out by mere mortals, perhaps the UK and EU need some divine inspiration to break the deadlock. That was perhaps what an Irish priest was thinking when he presented Taoiseach Leo Varadkar with a bottle of holy water this afternoon. But it seems Varadkar had other ideas about what to do with it: Priest: ‘Taoiseach, I know you’re going to New York next week and meeting Boris Johnson, [here’s] a small little bit of added protection for you.’  Varadkar: ‘Do I pour it over him?’ https://twitter.com/skydavidblevins/status/1175049001126768647?

It might not feel like it after Monday’s press conference theatrics and the briefings coming out of Brussels, but there is still a chance of a Brexit deal. It should be stressed that it is still odds against an agreement being reached. There has, though, been some shifting in positions in the last few weeks. The EU is now open to reworking the withdrawal agreement in a way that it simply wasn’t a month or so ago. The British government, the DUP and Dublin have all—to varying degrees—moved; meaning that there is now some hope of finding a way to replace the backstop. As one senior British government source puts it, ‘We have moved on SPS. They have moved on consent’. If a deal can be reached, I think it will pass in parliament.

The shape of the Brexit fix that Boris Johnson wants from the EU’s 27 leaders is now clear.

I am told Jean-Claude Juncker learned just one thing from Boris Johnson on Monday in Luxembourg. In the words of one of his colleagues there was "confirmation that the UK (under Johnson) wants more of a border on the island of Ireland than the previous government". Which is the nutshell of the whole of what the PM seeks qua new deal and what the EU’s 27 leaders need to evaluate either as deft compromise or as brutal betrayal of Dublin and the Good Friday Agreement. This dispute harks back to the December 2017 joint agreement between the UK and EU which pledges to prevent the creation of "a hard border including any physical infrastructure or related checks and controls".