Brexit

George Osborne’s Newsnight interview has drawn ire from the Eurosceptics chiefly because the Chancellor used it to stamp on any suggestion that there might be a second EU referendum in which Brussels offered the UK all the changes it wanted in the first place in order to tempt it back into the European Union. But Osborne also reiterated last night that the ‘Treasury is 100 per cent now focused on achieving the renegotiation’ and wasn’t drawing up contingency plans for Brexit. The problem for ministers is that any admission or leak of such contingency plans would be written up as a Whitehall panic, or a secret desire on the part

David Cameron’s admission on the Marr Show this morning that the EU referendum might take place either a little later in 2016 than most expected or indeed in 2017 isn’t what has exercised eurosceptics. From their point of view, a later referendum will give them more time to set out their arguments for a change from the status quo. But what has annoyed them is the Prime Minister’s suggestion that the government was not drawing up contingency plans for Britain voting to leave the European Union. Marr asked him whether the government was prepared for the possibility of leaving the EU. Cameron replied: ‘I don’t think that is the right

It’s nearly Christmas. That means it’s the time for carols, goodwill to all men and… leaving the EU — that’s according to the Bow Group anyway. The conservative think tank have released their traditional ‘Bow Group Christmas Fairytale’ read by John Redwood, the MP for Wokingham. This year it has a Brexit theme: ‘Red Riding Hood — a very modern fairytale of life in the European woods.’ And who takes on the role of the big bad wolf? Well, Mr EU of course.

As David Cameron prepares to make his case to European leaders over dinner this evening, the Out campaign is stepping up its preparations for the referendum. Vote Leave will host 10 regional launches in the New Year and appoint campaign directors for each region. It’ll also hire staff to work at a constituency level. Combine this with a central campaign team that contains former senior aides to Theresa May, Michael Gove and Philip Hammond and you have the basis for a formidable operation. With the backing of senior business figures such as Crispin Odey and Luke Johnson, they also shouldn’t have any trouble raising money. But the campaign itself is

Two new opinion polls suggest that support is growing for Britain to leave the European Union. Today’s Daily Telegraph reports on an ICM survey which shows that half of voters back Brexit, if the undecideds are excluded: the first time since 2013 that voters are evenly split. But when the undecided voters are included, it is a much tighter split: 42 per cent would vote to stay in, compared to 41 per cent for leaving. It’s a similar story in a Survation survey in today’s Daily Express, which has a five-times larger 10,000 sample size. This survey reports that 42 per cent want to leave the EU, compared to 40 per cent who would vote to stay in. Taking

Oh dear. David Cameron’s speech to the Confederation of British Industry got off to a shaky start today after he was heckled by Brexit protesters. While the CBI had opted to leave members of the Vote Leave campaign off of the invite list, two protesters managed to sneak in and get their own anti-EU message across. As the Prime Minister gave a speech in which he said that he could work with business leaders to keep ‘Britain in a reformed Europe’ after a successful renegotiation, protesters held up a banner and shouted that the CBI is the ‘voice of Brussels’: Exclusive: watch anti-CBI hecklers interrupt PM speech (& forgive my

For all the leadership positioning, one of the striking things about Tory conference in Manchester was the level of agreement about what the party’s strategy should be. There was almost no one calling for the party to move right. Instead, the emphasis was on how the party could expand its electoral coalition. Boris Johnson and George Osborne may have very different styles, but the argument of their speeches was essentially the same: the Tories have to show that they are the party for low paid workers. This determination to look for new converts, which was the defining feature of David Cameron’s speech too, is a product of the election campaign.

Nigel Farage held another event in Westminster this morning to announce the dates of his ‘Say No – Believe in Britain’ tour, through which he hopes to drum up support for a Brexit. While the venue and message were identical to his press conference in July, the Ukip leader did reveal some details: twelve regional co-ordinators have been chosen, 300 events are planned over the next few months and six million leaflets will be delivered by Christmas. In light of the British Future polling on the toxicity of Ukip’s immigration message, Farage was keen point out he will work with anyone to achieve a Brexit — even Jeremy Corbyn. He said that a Corbyn victory

Nigel Farage emerged from his summer break today to kickstart his party’s No campaign. The Ukip leader hit out at Eurosceptic Conservatives who he believes are lazy and ‘there is no No campaign’ at present. But he won’t be putting himself forward as a candidate to lead the official No campaign —  instead focusing on his grassroots efforts with a tour of the country in September. I caught up with Farage, who appeared refreshed after ‘trying to keep away from people like you’. He denied that by attacking Tories, he is beginning Ukip’s No campaign on a negative footing: ‘You will have seen in national newspaper columns this week a

Barack Obama has given his perennial reminder that Britain should stay in the European Union. In an interview with the BBC, the President of the United States has said it is important for both Britain’s prosperity and influence around the world to remain ‘In’: ‘Having the United Kingdom in the European Union gives us much greater confidence about the strength of the transatlantic union and is part of the cornerstone of institution built after World War II that has made the world safer and more prosperous. ‘And we want to make sure that United Kingdom continues to have that influence. Because we believe that the values that we share are the

Ever since Margaret Thatcher U-turned in the dying days of her premiership, there has been a kind of agreement between Left and Right on what the European Union is. Most Conservatives followed the late-vintage Thatcher. They stopped regarding the EU as a free market that British business must be a part of, and started to see it as an unaccountable socialist menace that could impose left-wing labour and environmental policies on a right-wing government. As many critics have said, the Tory version of British nationalism that followed had many hypocrisies. It did not want foreigners infringing national sovereignty when they were bureaucrats in Brussels but did not seem to mind

People write about ‘Grexit’ and ‘Brexit’ as if they were the same, but they need not be. Grexit is about leaving the euro. Brexit is about leaving the EU. It seems, however, that the Greeks fear that leaving the euro would mean leaving the EU, and so feel paralysed. It simply is not clear what the true situation is. Although Britain has a specific opt-out (as does Denmark), for the other member states, euro-membership is, after a preparatory period is completed, an obligation. Does this mean that, once in the euro, an EU member state cannot leave it? If so, then William Hague’s famous phrase likening it to ‘being in

Dominic Cummings is the man drafted in to put together the putative No campaign for the EU referendum. Cummings has a tendency to surprise and he has done that today with a piece that pushes the idea that the No campaign should say that there would be a second referendum if Britain votes Out. This second vote would be on the terms of Britain’s exit from the EU. Cummings’ thinking is that this would de-risk voting No. People would be simply rejecting the deal that David Cameron had negotiated rather than voting to leave outright. Cummings sums up the advantages of a second referendum for No thus: This approach might allow NO to

The EU ‘out’ campaigners have two troublesome image problems to contend with: the message of ‘No’ is intrinsically negative and will scare off voters, plus they are looking to change the status quo. Business for Britain, which is expected by many in Westminster to be one of the groups forming the ‘No’ campaign, is attempting to remedy the negativity of a Brexit with its new publication ‘Change or Go’. In the 1000-page report, BfB outlines in detail the changes British businesses want to the UK’s relationship with the EU. It argues that if these changes can’t be won, then it’s time to leave. The report counters the idea put about by ‘In’ campaigners that Britain would

Boris Johnson is back to his old tricks, causing headaches for David Cameron. After the Prime Minister’s confused position on whether ministers should be allowed to take part in the ‘Out’ campaign, the Mayor of London thrown a grenade at the idea that collective responsibility will hold. On his LBC phone-in this morning, Johnson said it would be ‘safer and more harmonious’ to allow ministers to campaign with their conscience: ‘I think in 1975, from memory, I think cabinet ministers were allowed to campaign against staying in and to keep their positions. It seemed to work last time … ‘Just thinking about it out loud, on the spur, of the moment, let

Ukip continues to talk up a big role for itself in the Out campaign. As Britain’s most Eurosceptic party, it is eager to dive into a referendum it has been waiting almost a quarter of a century for, but the extent of its involvement is not clear.The kippers believe that their ground operation will be vital to the Out campaign — one Ukip source points out that all of Ukip’s 45,000-odd members are gearing up for the fight of their lifetime and it’ll be hard for Conservatives to match this. Therefore, if the Brexit campaign has any hope of success, Ukip would argue it has to play a prominent role. And