Brexit

Sunday

Steerpike

Labour MP: ‘Better educated’ people voted Remain

From our UK edition

After the Conservative MP Chris Heaton-Harris was outed last week for writing to universities requesting details of their Brexit syllabus, the debate on academic Brexit bias is in full swing. Happily Labour's Barry Sheerman was on hand to clear the matter up with an appearance on Yorkshire Sunday Politics. Sheerman said any anti-Brexit sentiment at universities was down to the fact that 'better educated people' back Remain: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JiRbRWgPKjs BS: The truth is that when you look at who voted to Remain, most of them were the better educated people in our country… TI: This is controversial! Massively controversial. BS: Absolutely! It’s absolutely true. You can actually see the pattern.

Ross Clark

Economic forecasts are almost always wrong – so why do we take them seriously?

From our UK edition

There is a weird psychology behind economic forecasts. We know they are going to be wrong, because they always are. Yet such is our appetite for information – any information – that nevertheless we can’t stop ourselves taking them seriously. The Sunday Times this morning has gone big on a report by serial doomsayers the EY Item Club claiming that the government needs to move quickly to obtain a transitional deal on Brexit or face a collapse in business investment. Even with a deal it predicts that the growth in business investment next year will fall to 1.5 per cent, from 2.1 per cent this year. Maybe. But then again, maybe not. There is absolutely no evidence from previous EY Item Club forecasts to suggest that this is better than a figure plucked out of the sky.

Saturday

James Landale

The EU needs to ask itself some searching questions about Brexit

From our UK edition

I have come to Greece in search of sanity over Brexit. Ostensibly it is a symposium to discuss relations between Britain and Greece. But it is also an excuse to step away from the minutiae of the negotiations to think about the future of Europe. It was from Greece, of course, that our continent derived its name — from the mythological Europa who was ravished by Zeus and bore a future king of Crete. One contributor notes dryly that Greece is also not a bad place to think about the rise and fall of empires, the follies of politicians, the failings of institutions and what happens to elites when they become obsessed by Byzantine theological detail. The EU has no monopoly on schism.

Philip Sime

European press on Catalonia: “Suddenly, Brexit doesn’t seem so bad”

From our UK edition

"Look on the bright side...Brexit no longer seems so serious" Chappatte in Le Temps, Switzerland The events in Catalonia dominate Europe’s press this morning, seen as the biggest political crisis to hit the country since the attempted coup d'état of 1981. The Madrid-based El País says the invocation of Article 155 was done so ‘legally and transparently’ and does not constitute an act of aggression against Catalan self-government or the rights of Catalans. Rather, El País views Madrid’s response to the crisis as ‘legitimate and necessary’ in the face of the challenge posed by Catalonia’s ‘irresponsible and reckless’ political leaders.

Friday

James Forsyth

Will Britain back Madrid for the sake of Brexit?

From our UK edition

Theresa May’s official spokesperson has just issued a statement on Catalonia’s declaration of independence that will please Madrid. It makes clear that the ‘UK does not and will not recognise the Unilateral Declaration of Independence’. It says that the declaration is ‘based on a vote declared illegal by the Spanish courts’. It concludes by saying that ‘we want to see the rule of law upheld, the Spanish constitution respected, and Spanish unity preserved’. What is telling about this statement is that it doesn’t even included the kind of diplomatically phrased call for restraint that Donald Tusk’s tweet did.

Thursday

The Spectator

Letters | 26 October 2017

From our UK edition

Meeting halfway Sir: If our Brexit negotiator David Davis has not read Robert Tombs’s wonderful article ‘Lost in translation’ (21 October) on how different the French and the British can be when it comes to the negotiating table, he really should, as it splendidly exemplifies how useful history can be. The trouble is, of course, that politicians are often too busy to read history, or that historians get round to writing something useful too late to exert practical influence. In this instance, however, there is still time: manufactured deadlines can be adjusted, and (given adequate cross-cultural empathy) accommodations can be reached. Brian Harrison Oxford The law in France Sir: Robert Tombs highlights the differences between the UK and France brilliantly.

Charles Moore

The Spectator’s notes | 26 October 2017

From our UK edition

Theresa May’s style of negotiating with the European Union is coming spookily to resemble David Cameron’s. She is in the mindset where the important thing is to get a deal, rather than working out what sort of a deal is worth getting. The EU understands this, and therefore delays, making Cameron/May more desperate to settle, even on bad terms. Eventually, there is an inadequate deal which the British government then has to sell to a doubting electorate. Mr Cameron was punished for this at the referendum he had called. Mrs May is inviting punishment at a general election. It is interesting how moderate politics cannot get a hearing just now.

Hans-Olaf Henkel

The EU must open trade talks with the UK

From our UK edition

Let me make it clear at the outset: I was against Brexit. However, I am appalled by the reaction to the referendum of the Europhiles in Brussels and elsewhere in the EU. Instead of taking the right lesson from Brexit, Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and French President Emmanuel Macron used it to promote their project of a United States of Europe. The European Parliament’s Brexit spokesman Guy Verhofstadt displayed an unacceptable arrogance towards the British voters during the recent Brexit debate in Strasbourg and EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier continues to give the impression that he is out to punish them. Instead of developing a timetable for the negotiations together with the British, he forces his own down their throat.

James Landale

Greece Notebook | 26 October 2017

From our UK edition

I have come to Greece in search of sanity over Brexit. Ostensibly it is a symposium to discuss relations between Britain and Greece. But it is also an excuse to step away from the minutiae of the negotiations to think about the future of Europe. It was from Greece, of course, that our continent derived its name — from the mythological Europa who was ravished by Zeus and bore a future king of Crete. One contributor notes dryly that Greece is also not a bad place to think about the rise and fall of empires, the follies of politicians, the failings of institutions and what happens to elites when they become obsessed by Byzantine theological detail. The EU has no monopoly on schism.

James Forsyth

MPs are undermining Britain’s world-class university system

From our UK edition

The debate about universities in the last few days has been extremely frustrating. Britain has the two best universities in the world, according to The Times Higher Education rankings, and five of the top 25. This should be a cause for national celebration. Politicians should be seeking to build on this strength, not doing anything to undermine it. But instead, MPs on both the left and the right are behaving in reckless and irresponsible ways. Oxford is the best university in the world. But a former universities minister, David Lammy, the shadow Education Secretary, the Tory chair of the Education Select Committee and 100-odd other MPs want to massively interfere in how it is run. They want Oxford to move to a more centralised admissions system.

James Forsyth

Hammond can build his way out of trouble

From our UK edition

Sometimes in life the biggest risk you can take is to play it safe. This is the predicament of Philip Hammond as he approaches the Budget next month. If he adopts a safety-first approach, it will almost certainly go wrong and he’ll be forced into a credibility-draining U-turn, as he was in March. His best hope is to be bold, and to hope this generates enough momentum to carry him over any bumps in the road. The two longest-serving chancellors of recent times have relished the theatrics of Budget Day. Both Gordon Brown and George Osborne loved pulling a rabbit out of the hat at the last minute, wrongfooting the opposition and grabbing the headlines. Hammond isn’t like that.

Wednesday

Stephen Daisley

The eurosceptic right are copying the SNP’s sinister playbook

From our UK edition

If democracy is government by the people and meritocracy by the most able, Brexitocracy is rule by charlatans. Anyone who doubts that should survey the limp justifications, weaker than the Labour vetting process, for Chris Heaton-Harris’s letter to vice-chancellors. The Eurosceptic MP wrote to universities and asked if they wouldn’t mind drawing up a list of names for him. Nothing fancy, just everyone involved in teaching about Brexit and copies of their teaching materials. Now, the normal procedure when an MP – a government whip no less – does something completely deranged and massively embarrassing is to cordon them off with yellow hazard tape and hose down the crime scene.

Tuesday

Philip Sime

The Czech Republic could be the next country to leave the EU

From our UK edition

In the immediate aftermath of Britain’s vote to leave the EU, there were fears in the corridors of Brussels that it would trigger a so-called ‘domino effect’. Many predicted that other Eurosceptic nations would follow Britain’s lead, unravelling the European project which took 65 years to build. More than one year after the Brexit vote, spirits in Brussels are relatively high. The popular European federalist, Guy Verhofstadt, is even hailing a ‘reverse domino-effect’. However, over the weekend, a little-noticed political earthquake struck the Czech Republic as Andrej Babiš, a Trump-style populist billionaire, led his ‘Action for Dissatisfied Citizens’ party to victory in the country’s legislative election.

Friday

Isabel Hardman

Ceci n’est pas une no deal, says Macron

From our UK edition

This post is from tonight's Evening Blend email, a free round-up and analysis of the day's politics. Sign up here. Is the government really changing its policy on planning for a no deal? That question isn’t simple to answer, not least because it’s not entirely clear what the government’s policy is on this matter: Philip Hammond has said the government won’t spend the necessary money until it needs to, while Theresa May says whatever money needs to be spent will be spent. But the pressure has been rising from Brexiteers for ministers to make real plans and produce real money to ensure that those plans are implemented.

Martin Vander Weyer

Thank goodness for doses of statistical reality

From our UK edition

How did we mislay half a trillion pounds? Revised data from the Office for National Statistics has just reduced the UK’s ‘net international investment position’ from a surplus of £469 billion to a deficit of £22 billion. Downing Street dismissed this as ‘a technical revision’ — and in truth it’s not as bad it sounds, since what it tells us is that we own fewer foreign assets, and foreigners own more British assets, than had previously been recorded. Does national pride not attach to the idea that the rest of the world sees us as an investment safe haven? So why worry? Well, past miscounting apart, actual current trends in this respect do not encourage optimism.

Thursday

The Spectator

Portrait of the Week – 19 October 2017

From our UK edition

Home Theresa May, the Prime Minister, and David Davis, the Brexit Secretary, went to Brussels and had dinner with Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the European Commission and the EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier. They came up with a joint statement that ‘efforts should accelerate over the months to come’. But by this week’s meeting of the European Council, Britain was deemed not to have done enough about the price it would pay to allow the EU to discuss trade matters. No great hope was held out that it would be any better by the next meeting in December. Keir Starmer, Labour’s Brexit spokesman, said: ‘There is no way we would vote for a no deal.

Isabel Hardman

Ministers may have to withdraw the EU Withdrawal Bill for a long time

From our UK edition

So the EU (Withdrawal) Bill has been delayed once again, with Andrea Leadsom confirming a ‘pause’ to MPs this morning. The legislation is so weighed down with hundreds of hostile amendments that the whips daren’t take it anywhere near the Commons, and are trying to work on compromises with the many different groups of rebels in order to avoid a series of embarrassing defeats. Leadsom told the Chamber that ‘out of respect for this House, the Government are doing justice to the very significant concerns that have been raised about procedures and policy in the EU (Withdrawal) Bill, and it will come back to the House just as soon as the Government are prepared to do justice to the new clauses and amendments that have been tabled by Members’.

Steerpike

Watch: Alastair Campbell’s Brexit ding-dong with John Redwood

From our UK edition

Alastair Campbell has made his views on Brexit loud and clear to anyone who will listen. Tony Blair’s former spin doctor is not happy about Britain leaving the EU and he wants us all to know it. It’s something of a shame then that he doesn’t give others who don’t agree with him about Brexit the opportunity to have their say. Cracking set-to between Alistair Campbell and John Redwood over the WTO. pic.twitter.com/veUDBFCDTy — Nick Hilton (@nickfthilton) October 19, 2017 Campbell popped up on Sky News this afternoon to discuss why he thought walking away with no Brexit deal would be a mistake. But when it came to Tory MP John Redwood’s turn to speak, Campbell was having none of it: AC: 'Because people like you..

Liam Halligan

No deal is a good deal

From our UK edition

So Theresa May and Jean-Claude Juncker enjoyed a ‘broad and constructive exchange’ during their working dinner in Brussels. Last time the Prime Minister broke bread with the President of the European Commission — at Downing Street six months ago — Juncker dubbed her ‘deluded’ and complained about the food. Despite better mood music, this latest supper summit was hardly positive. European Union negotiators still refuse to discuss trade or end the divisive impasse over citizens’ rights until Britain agrees to pay a stonking ‘divorce bill’ — upwards of £40-£50 billion. All the while, the Article 50 clock is ticking. The prospect of a ‘no deal’ Brexit has lately loomed into view, and not a moment too soon.

James Forsyth

Brexit can strengthen the Union

From our UK edition

There will be no chance of the United Kingdom making a success of Brexit if Scotland votes to break up the kingdom. And although the immediate danger of that happening appears to have passed — the Scottish National Party lost ground in the general election and Nicola Sturgeon doesn’t speak anywhere near as much about independence nowadays — this could change if Brexit is mishandled. When Britain leaves the EU then Scotland leaves too — those are the rules, and Spain, which is not too keen on the idea of secession, will insist upon them. So Brexit in itself will make Scottish independence an even bigger risk.