Brexit

Cabinet is certain to be tetchy this morning after Boris Johnson called the PM's preferred customs arrangement 'crazy'. Things were no different on Sky News just now when Iain Duncan Smith popped up to discuss Brexit. IDS clashed repeatedly with Adam Boulton as the pair discussed borders, Brexit and whether Boris would do a better job than Theresa May. Here’s how it unfolded: IDS: Let me finish, because you need to understand what the problem is AB: No, but you’re making an assertion IDS: No, I’m not … IDS: Adam, sorry, just wait. Let me finish. Wouldn’t you like to know the answer to that question? AB: Yeah IDS: Right, let me finish. … IDS: Do me a favour, Alan, err Adam. You ask me a question, let me finish.

Theresa May has received a shot in the arm from the local election results. But, as I say in The Sun this morning, she still needs to deal with the whole customs partnership question. Even after the remarkable rebuff that the ‘new customs partnership’ received from the Brexit inner Cabinet on Wednesday, despite the Prime Minister putting her authority on the line by making clear her support for it, Number 10 won’t give up on the idea. It believes that with a few changes it can be made to work. Already, ministers are being told that what really matters is getting out of the EU. The case is being made that once Britain is no longer, legally a member of the EU all these problems can be ironed out.

As time passes, some things become clear. The problem isn’t Brexit; the problem is the Brexiteers. Or, to put it slightly differently, while Brexit may be sub-optimal, the Brexiteers are much worse than that. They are awful.  Extraordinarily, Jacob Rees-Mogg is now the bookmakers’ favourite to be the next prime minister. As the champion of the backbench Brexiteers he can no longer be dismissed – or, indeed, indulged – as an enjoyable eccentric. He is serious and perhaps now merits being taken seriously himself.  As an intellectual matter, Brexit remains a respectable cause.

Another day, another Brexit defeat in the House of Lords for the Government. This time around, peers have voted to back an amendment to the Brexit bill which would hand Parliament, rather than ministers, the power to decide what to do if MPs reject the final deal agreed with Brussels. The margin in today’s vote was considerable: 335 to 224. But more worrying for the Government is the number of times it has been now been defeated in the Lords on Brexit, with this afternoon's vote marking the seventh time peers have gone against the Government on the issue. Among those who backed the amendment were 19 Tory lords, including 11 former ministers. The names of those who rebelled are no surprise. But make no mistake: this vote will worry ministers.

I am living in Paris in the unofficial role of Diplomatic Wag. Though since I am neither wife nor girlfriend, but fiancée, or, in best Franglais, la vielle balle et chaîne, I have been searching for a new acronym. Foho (Foreign Office Hanger On)? Andy is a ‘Directeur de SIN’, a demonic job description out of C.S. Lewis’s The Screwtape Letters. SIN is the government’s Science and Innovation Network, promoting collaboration between international scientists. There is goodwill in laboratories on both sides of the Channel to go on working together post-You-Know-What. Brexit is pronounced to rhyme with Brigitte, as in Bardot. Parisians ask if you’re American or English and when you say English they bring up Brexitte.

The government’s opponents were not slow, as usual, to blame today’s disappointing data on economic growth on Brexit (the IOD) or ‘austerity’ (John McDonnell) – while the Chancellor, Philip Hammond, chose to fall back on that old chestnut used by corporate spokesmen when announcing dismal results: the weather. None of these will really do as an explanation as to why GDP growth, according to the ONS, plunged from a healthy 0.4 per cent in the final quarter of last year to a miserable 0.1 per cent in the first quarter of 2018. As for Brexit, GDP figures have been shrugging it off for nearly two years – the economy even accelerated for the first two quarters.

For those Brexiteers worried the government may change its mind on leaving the customs union, David Davis’s appearance in front of a select committee gave reasons for reassurance – but also possibly some cause to worry. The Brexit secretary was clear that he is sticking firmly to his guns on the issue. But can he – and the government – continue to do so under pressure from MPs who are seeking to keep Britain inside the customs union? Hilary Benn asked Davis what would happen if the vote in Parliament on the Brexit trade bill went against the government.

Whole industries will be devastated. There will be thirty mile queues of lorries stretching back from Dover. The price of food will rocket, our farmers will be wiped out, and the IRA will be letting off bombs all over the UK as the Troubles return to Northern Ireland. With every day that passes, the scare stories about leaving the customs union are getting more and more hysterical – and the pressure is growing to stay inside. In fact, most of it is nonsense. The fifth largest economy in the world is perfectly capable of managing its own trade arrangements. But leaving needs a big sell. Why? Because there is a powerful alliance of industrial lobbyists and ultra remainers behind staying inside, and that means the case for getting out may easily be lost.