Brexit

I hate to take issue with a fellow Spectator writer, but Robert Peston’s revelation that a “no deal” Brexit is now off the table strikes me as a prime example of Westminster’s ability to ignore the bleeding obvious for months on end then talk cobblers in an authoritative voice when finally forced to confront reality. Robert is far from alone in his conclusion about last night’s Commons vote. To be honest, I’m just taking issue with his post because the spectacle of Spectator writers disagreeing seems to interest some people, probably because they struggle with the idea of one publication publishing multiple and contradictory viewpoints.

So MPs have (narrowly) rejected the Lords' amendment to the EU Withdrawal Bill, which would (if passed) have given parliament the power to force the PM back into negotiations with Brussels if MPs and Lords reject whatever Brexit deal she ultimately negotiates. (Phew: that was a mouthful). But the price Theresa May is paying for that victory - paying to Tory Remainer rebels led by Dominic Grieve - is that she has agreed to redraft the Bill when it returns to the Lords so as to account of Grieve's own amendment to the bill.

Oh dear. It seems that not everyone has taken Theresa May's appeal for party unity to heart. Although Amber Rudd and Iain Duncan Smith penned a Sunday Telegraph article calling for Tories to come together this week for the EU Withdrawal Bill votes, not everyone appears convinced. Over the weekend, former Remain rebel Antoinette Sandbach took to social media to tweet 'Remainers need courage to go for the kill', and share Matthew Parris's Times column on the topic. In the piece, Parris urges would-be rebels to not be put off rebelling by the whips: 'This is the moment when you must lift your eyes from the trees and see the wood.

Theresa May's cabinet is divided and her MPs increasingly worried over the government's Brexit plans – or lack thereof. Yet despite all this, the latest Times/YouGov poll puts the Tories seven points ahead of Labour. With many in Westminster left scratching their head over the apparent disconnect, could a clue be found in ITV2's Love Island? Mr S only asks after Friday's episode saw contestants on the popular reality show – in which twenty-somethings attempt to find their perfect match – discuss the issue of the day. Only, rather than talk backstop options, customs arrangements, the Irish border or post-Brexit immigration systems, the conversation centred around what Brexit was and whether the UK would still have trees come March 2019: https://twitter.

Could Brexit talks soon be heading for the ‘meltdown’ that Boris Johnson predicted? Michel Barnier’s press conference just now hardly inspires confidence that things are going to plan. The EU’s chief negotiator said that Britain was playing a ‘blame game’ in Brexit talks and that it had to accept the consequences of its decision to leave the EU. He went on to call for the British government to have something of a reality check over the way things were going. Today, that reality check came in the form of his rejection of Britain’s backstop proposal to solve the Irish border problem. Theresa May had put forward the suggestion that the whole of the UK would remain in the customs union after Britain leaves the EU next March.

A distinguished retired EU diplomat from a small EU member state sends me a thoughtful letter. He complains that Brexit ‘has been handled in the most amateurish way by British politicians’. ‘When one removes something,’ he goes on, ‘one has to be ready with its replacement’: Mrs May ‘is far from clear in her plans, but those who criticise her are not any clearer’. All this is true, and it points to the weirdness of our current situation, which is that Brexit is not being executed by a government that wants it. In conversation, people often say ‘The Brexit supporters promised X’, and then accuse them of breaking that promise.

Put June 12th in your diary, for that’s when the EU withdrawal bill will return to the House of Commons. Julian Smith, the chief whip, has written to Tory MPs telling them, ‘There will be a number of divisions that day’ as the government attempts to overturn the Lords’ amendments to the bill. Smith’s letter includes a pointed reference to the Tory manifesto, which included a commitment to leave the customs union. This is designed to remind potential Tory rebels that they’d be breaking with the manifesto on which they were elected if they vote for the customs union amendment. But it’ll take more than this to get the government through these votes. One Cabinet minister tells me that it is ‘going to get messy’.