Boris johnson

When we interviewed Matt Hancock this week, he was clear that the government isn’t going for herd immunity through vaccination. Instead, the government is seeking to use the vaccine to protect the vulnerable and break the link between cases, hospitalisations and deaths. Once that is done, the government will start to ease restrictions. Crucially, he was also clear that the government now regards the first shot as the most important metric when counting vaccinations. In his Monday night address, Boris Johnson said that if the government could succeed in giving a first shot to the first four groups in the vaccination programme by mid-February then the government would start ‘cautiously, to move regions down the tiers.

Boris Johnson doesn't have as angry a Conservative party to deal with as he might have expected after announcing his third national lockdown. The Covid Recovery Group of MPs has largely moved on from opposing further restrictions to putting pressure on the government over its vaccine timetable, meaning any revolt on tonight's vote will be much smaller than the 55 who rebelled against the tiered system in December. But that's not to say that the Prime Minister can afford to be careless with the way he communicates with MPs, and his statement in the Commons today showed that.

Boris Johnson this evening tried to give a little more background to why he had called England’s latest lockdown – and why he had confidence that this really was the darkness before the dawn. The Prime Minister told the Downing Street coronavirus briefing (yes, we are back in that sort of lockdown) that more than 1 million people in England are now infected with Covid – around 2 per cent of the population, according to the ONS – but that as of today, the same number of people in England, and a total of 1.3 million people across the UK, have received the vaccine. He had to explain why he had changed his tune on schools so rapidly, going from insisting that most schools should return to cancelling face-to-face teaching within 36 hours.

Boris Johnson is coming under increased pressure from Tory MPs on both sides of the Covid debate today. On the one hand, there is former Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt calling for schools and borders to close and a ban on all household mixing straight away in order to prevent the NHS from collapsing. On the other, there is Mark Harper, chair of the influential Covid Recovery Group, who has just issued a call for the government to start relaxing restrictions from February. The two demands aren't necessarily mutually-exclusive: the two men just have rather different timescales.

As many hospitals struggle to cope with a surge of Covid-19 patients, the most important judgement yet to be made about 2020 is how much difference it would have made had England been pre-emptively locked down in September. This is not an academic question. Because there were two separate occasions in September when the prime minister's political and scientific advisers urged him to impose tough national restrictions and suppress the incidence of the virus back to low levels. It is well known that on 21 September the government's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies recommended a short ‘circuit-breaking’ lockdown.

After all the parliamentary drama of the past four and a half years, the final Commons phase of Brexit is passing with remarkably little drama. Boris Johnson knows his agreement will be voted through this afternoon and, following the European Research Group decision, with nearly universal Tory support. Johnson’s speech was upbeat, as he sought to declare the deal a triumph. He pointed to the exclusion of any role for the European Court of Justice, the speed with which the deal had been done and the fact it was zero tariff, zero quota. In a sign of the fight to come, Johnson had to fend off multiple points of order from Ian Blackford, the leader of the Scottish National Party, who sought to critique the compromise on fishing.

This country will end the Brexit transition period with a zero tariff, zero quota deal with the EU. Four and a half years after the Brexit vote, the issue that has so convulsed British politics is settled. We are still awaiting the text of the deal. But from what both sides have said it is clear that this is a pretty full fat Brexit: Britain leaves the single market and the customs union and there’ll be no dynamic alignment with EU rules in the future. On the three key tests of money, borders and laws – it looks like the deal passes The two sides will be able to put tariffs on each other if they feel that they have raised their standards and the others refusal to follow suit puts them at a trading disadvantage.

Tonight we are still waiting for confirmation that a Brexit deal has been done. But the noises coming out of both London and Brussels are optimistic — something would have to go wrong for there not to be a deal. However, it currently looks like there will be one more late night in Brussels before Brexit is done. The pace at which things have moved today has been surprising; I was not expecting a deal today last night. But there is now a broad expectation that an agreement will emerge tonight or tomorrow morning. The European Research Group of Tory MPs have announced that they are convening their panel of legal experts to pass judgement on the text and Nigel Farage has already accused the government of a ‘fisheries sell out’.

The Brexit and Covid crises have merged into one. As of today, 21 December, France has blocked trucks from crossing the Channel as fears about a new strain of Covid — ‘the Kent virus’ to coin a phrase — sweep the continent. Perishable food was rotting, approach roads were jammed… it was as if we were living under a wartime blockade. By the time you read this, the French may have shifted from an outright ban to stringent health checks on exports and imports, but the pressure will still be on. In less than a fortnight, on 1 January, we will have the real Brexit. It will be either without a deal or with a thin deal.