Leading article

Osborne’s duty

Vince Cable has a point. The government does, alas, lack a ‘compelling vision for the economy’ but the Liberal Democrats see this as an opportunity, not a defect. They regard George Osborne’s agenda as a blank slate on to which they can write all sorts of policies: a mansion tax, capital gains tax, even a state bank which would bring to corporate Britain the sub-prime loans that triggered the financial meltdown in America. With the budget looming, open negotiations have begun. It has been a festival of bad ideas, which have prospered in the absence of a Tory agenda. The risk of the Cameron project was not that voters would be appalled that the Prime Minister went to Eton or that his Chancellor is the heir to a baronetcy.

Bad habits | 3 March 2012

Professor Hamid Ghodse, president of the UN’s International Narcotics Control Board, is not the first to observe that Liverpool, Manchester and Birmingham have acquired ‘no-go’ areas of ‘fractured communities’ ruled by gangs. But if he were brave enough to venture just a little bit closer to the frontline of Britain’s drug problem he would realise that much of the rest of his analysis, delivered with the board’s annual report this week, is bunk. Making a case for a shift towards treatment and rehabilitation programmes, he claims that Britain offers proof that ‘it is no good to have only law enforcement, which always shows it does not succeed’.

George should listen to Danny

Britain is in the middle of the deepest slump in our modern history. What can be done? The best idea we seem to have is one which Danny Alexander drew up on the back of an envelope. When advising Nick Clegg, the now Chief Secretary to the Treasury came up with the idea that no one paid below £10,000 a year should pay income tax. His short-lived predecessor, David Laws, reprised the idea this week, calling for the policy to be financed by cutting higher-rate tax relief on pensions. The Liberal Democrats are rightly exploiting one of the more worrying gaps in British politics: the vacuum where a Tory growth agenda ought to be. George Osborne performs many roles in the government. He is the chief strategist and the arch-fixer.

Get-out clause

In the same week that Sun journalists were subjected to dawn raids at home, the British justice system released one of the leading ideologues of al-Qa’eda to walk the streets. The fact that Abu Qatada should never have been here in the first place, having arrived in 1993 on a forged passport, is not a minor point. He has cost this country much in expense and security. He is said to be connected to terrorist jihadist groups in the UK, Egypt, Algeria, Jordan, Tunisia, Iraq, Indonesia, Italy, Belgium, Morocco, Libya, France, Afghanistan and Sweden — in 2007, the Special Immigration and Appeals Commission described his influence as ‘formidable, even incalculable.

Economies of shale

The weather conditions of the past week could not have been better conceived to show up the inadequacies of Britain’s — and the rest of Europe’s — energy policy. A vast anticyclone extending from Siberia to eastern England has brought snow as far south as Rome and temperatures of minus 40˚C to Eastern Europe. With North Sea gas production in sharp decline, never has Europe’s position on the end of a long gas pipeline originating in Russia been so exposed. As that country’s demand for energy has spiked, so the quantity of gas which it is prepared to export to the rest of Europe — also gagging for extra energy — has slumped. The wholesale price of gas has soared by more than a third in a week.

Bank withdrawals

When George Osborne became Chancellor, he took charge of a very large zombie bank with a medium-sized government attached to it. The Royal Bank of Scotland was nationalised in 2008 with assets of £2.2 trillion, almost four times state annual spending. The difference between RBS being run well or run badly could be counted in billions. The man who would make that difference was Stephen Hester, a top-flight banker who in a moment of madness had accepted the contract from Alistair Darling’s Treasury and got to work. He would not have known how his new ­masters would turn on him, demanding that he refuse his bonus of nearly £1 million. Hester’s bonus was almost twice as large last year — but then, fewer people cared.

Things fall apart

Last week, the Islamist group Boko Haram launched a horrific attack, bombing five Nigerian police stations and killing 186 in one day. What started as a campaign targeting Christians in the north has now grown into a crisis that threatens to overwhelm the Nigerian government — and the church leaders who appealed for foreign assistance have had little response. When Nigeria’s president said he is now facing a crisis as grave as the civil war of 1967, in which a million died, his words were barely reported by the foreign press. This former British colony, which we controlled until 1960, has slipped off our political radar.

Work in progress | 21 January 2012

It is often claimed that the Lords, unencumbered by the rivalries and ambitions of the Commons, have a greater affinity with ordinary people than MPs. Certainly, this is the spin which opponents of the Welfare Reform Bill would like to put on its rocky passage through the upper house, where the government narrowly avoided a fourth defeat this week. But there is an alternative interpretation: that their lordships are suffering from a form of noblesse oblige which prevents them from seeing that the welfare system has become a racket, incubating the poverty it was set up to eradicate. This week’s near-defeat, on the subject of the Disability Living Allowance (DLA) — which is paid to 3.

Save the union

‘Saving the union’ is unlikely to rank highly on David Cameron’s list of new year resolutions. Scotland is becoming a land about which most Westminster politicians know little and care less. It is being handled in 10 Downing St by Ed Llewellyn, who specialises in foreign affairs, yet neither he nor anyone else has the faintest idea what to do about Alex Salmond. The Scots around Cameron regard their motherland as a distant memory, a place where they lived before seeking political asylum in England. The Edinburgh parliament, its arguments and dynamics, are a mystery to the Prime Minister and his aides. And yet somehow he needs to fight and win a referendum on independence. The longer he ignores this problem, the worse it will become.

Global Britain

David Cameron did not expect to spend Christmas being toasted as a conquering hero. The Prime Minister fully intended to sign a new EU Treaty that night in Brussels, subject to a modest condition that the City of London would be exempt from even further regulation. But the French refused him so much as a fig leaf, and Nicolas Sarkozy went off to cast Britain as the villain of the summit. Had talks started at 7 a.m., rather than 7 p.m., they might have ended more amiably. But much of history is decided by frayed tempers in negotiating rooms. It could scarcely have ended better for the Prime Minister. He is aligned on this definitive issue not just with his own party but with the British public, who back his decision by a margin of four-to-one.

Leadership, please

Is a time of economic crisis an opportunity for fundamental reform, or a time to muddle through while waiting for calmer waters in which to effect lasting political and economic change? When he came to power last year, David Cameron argued for reform. He laid out plans so radical that Vince Cable complained they were ‘Maoist’. There would never be a better time to shake things up, he reasoned; if it were left until crises had passed, the momentum for change would be lost. Now, Cameron’s zeal has vanished. A crisis, it transpires, is no time to be radical. It would be rude, almost selfish to use the summit negotiations as an opportunity to improve Britain’s relationship with the EU.

The forgotten workers

It was a reasonable guess that, once the government had appointed a group of the great and good to investigate the summer riots, somehow we would all have to share the blame. It is a central tenet of liberal Britain that while criminals may share some of the blame for the acts which they perpetrate, they are invariably driven to committing them through the negligence and callousness of the rest of us. Meanwhile, the real problems — those created by an unreformed welfare system — are ignored. The Riots, Communities and Victims Panel has certainly not let us down on this score. Among the factors it blames for the riots in its interim report published this week is ‘conspicuous consumption’.

The technocrats’ coup

Just a few weeks ago, calling someone a ‘technocrat’ was a soft insult. The word meant, in effect, an efficient dullard. Now, technocrats appear to be inheriting the earth. They represent a new global elite, and they have recently added Greece and Italy to their empire. When Egypt’s military faced riots on the streets this week, it sought to assuage the crowds by replacing the government with a cabinet of technocrats. The Libyan rebels are doing the same. We have seen two very different types of regime change this year. The Arab Spring is driven by popular uprising; Europe has pioneered the reverse: an uprising of an unelected European elite deposing democratically elected governments. In both, technocrats seem to triumph.

The Chancellor’s challenge

First the good bit: the pronouncements of George Osborne’s early weeks at No. 11 helped to pacify investors who might otherwise have treated our government bonds to the same degrading treatment as those of Greece, Ireland, Spain and now Italy. As a result of a credible programme to reduce (albeit not eliminate) the deficit, confidence in UK government debt held firm and the Treasury is now able to borrow money at a shade above 2 per cent, rather than at the 7 per cent now being imposed on Italy. This is, today, the Treasury’s greatest single boast. Unfortunately, however, Osborne has not kept up the momentum. Impending disaster averted, No. 11 ought to have begun churning out reforms to set the country on a path towards prosperity.

Border skirmish

No job in government has its path so strewn with banana skins as that of Home Secretary. A missing criminal, slippery detainee or foreign terrorist can end a ministerial career. And with tens of thousands of people going in and out of the country daily it can happen at any moment. The Home Office has become the department where political careers go to die. There is a reason for this. As John Reid famously said of the Home Office’s immigration operation, it is quite simply ‘not fit for purpose’. Five years on from that bleak assessment, the situation has not improved. A case this summer highlighted the problem.

Don’t blame the Greeks

One can’t help but admire the Greeks. To be sure, they lied and cheated their way into the euro, and even the threat of a referendum on the bailout may yet tip the eurozone into a financial abyss. But there is something to be said for actually consulting the people about their future. Greece faces a choice: a decade (or more) of Frankfurt-enforced austerity, or bringing back the drachma and defaulting on their loans. Neither option is attractive. But this is about sovereignty, not just about money. This needs to be seen as a choice of the Greek people, not a deal imposed from outside and aimed primarily at saving eurozone banks. No wonder that George Papandreou, Greece’s American-born prime minister, gave Brussels no prior notice of his decision.

Old world order

Britain has never been defined by its place on the map. Our nation’s reach and interests have always been global, not merely continental. Not so long ago, a quarter of humanity was united under our empire. Today, in empire’s place, stands the Commonwealth. This weekend, the Queen convenes the meeting of its various heads of government: a convention of friends, allies and trading partners. Unlikely as it may seem, the Commonwealth has become the model of a modern and global alliance. The European Union, by contrast, looks more and more dated. It now appears less like a trading union than a self-help group for debt addicts.

Leading article: A Faustian pact

Given the hold that Goethe had over the German elite in the 1920s, it is impossible that the Weimar Republic’s leaders could have been ignorant about what happens when desperate politicians start printing money. In Part II of Faust, the devil suggests to an emperor that he solves his fiscal crisis by mass-producing banknotes. He does so — and, for a brief period, all seems well. The public sector salaries are paid, debts are settled, courtiers run off to feast on food and wine. Later it is revealed that these were ‘bogus riches’ and the empire ‘collapsed in anarchy’. This, more or less, is what happened in Weimar Germany. For George Osborne, the story is different.

Egypt’s new theocracy

The massacre this week of Coptic Christians in Cairo stands as a bloody corrective to the idea that the ‘Arab Spring’ was a wonderful uprising of the masses against dictators. Revolutions are not, in themselves, causes for celebration if they create a vacuum that can be filled by evil. The deliberate mowing down of dozens of peaceful demonstrators by armoured vehicles (hundreds of others were shot at point-blank range by Egyptian soldiers) is the starkest indication yet that the land of the Pharaohs is fast becoming a fundamentalist Islamic state, with the blessing of its powerful military establishment.

Leading article: The Osborne doctrine

What with all the excitement over Italian courtroom dramas, not enough attention was given to a radical statement by George Osborne at the Conservative party conference. It was one of the few important pronouncements made in Manchester this week. He declared: ‘Let’s at the very least resolve that we’re going to cut our carbon emissions no slower but also no faster than our fellow countries in Europe.’ There is no mistaking his meaning. And while it might not sound like much, it was a declaration of open defiance. Under the Climate Change Act, as it is currently structured, the government is legally bound to cut Britain’s carbon emissions by 34 per cent by the end of this decade. The rest of the EU, on the other hand, has only committed to 20 per cent.