Latest from Coffee House

Latest from Coffee House

All the latest analysis of the day's news and stories

The invisible 2020 Democratic primary is already underway

Is there a possibility Hillary Clinton will launch her third presidential campaign in 2020? If you ask former chief political strategist Steve Bannon, there is no doubt in his mind the former First Lady, US Senator, Secretary of State, and 2016 Democratic presidential nominee is itching to run. ‘She’s looking for a rematch’ against Donald Trump, Bannon told Curt Mills in a Spectator USA exclusive. Whether or not Clinton enters the race, Democrats across America will have plenty of choices when candidates officially declare their bids next year.

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How the mob was made

I am a little surprised that the English essayist Walter Bagehot is not a more conspicuous part of our intellectual furniture. His was a gently disabused, quietly penetrating sensibility, at once sophisticated and manly. How much wisdom is packed into his warning that ‘History is strewn with the wrecks of nations which have gained a little progressiveness at the cost of a great deal of hard manliness, and have thus prepared themselves for destruction as soon as the movements of the world gave a chance for it.’ Then there was his observation, drawn from the same basket of anthropological canniness, that ‘Civilised ages inherit the human nature which was victorious in barbarous ages, and that nature is, in many respects, not at all suited to civilised circumstances.

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Hillary Clinton will run in 2020, Steve Bannon claims

‘It will be Stalingrad every day,’ if the Republicans lose the House in November, Steve Bannon, the president’s former chief strategist, told me earlier this month at his house in Washington. But, he adds, ‘I think he’s on fire right now. I think the Kavanaugh thing, ironically, will play against the Democrats.’ ‘They’re going to start to turn on each other,’ Bannon says of the Democrats if the Republicans continue to close in the polls. ‘The Clinton Junta has never been held accountable. How do you lose the presidency? She’s never been held accountable for that.’ That, says Bannon, creates the perfect storm for her to run. ‘It’s not that she’s going to run,’ Bannon told me.

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Horseface: Donald Trump and the American comedy circus

As any admirer of stage comedy will vouch, nothing beats a double-act. This immortally funny formula requires little more than one man making a lot of silly anarchic jokes while another, the so-called ‘straight-man’ or ‘stooge’, remains rigidly po-faced. The funny-man’s gag does not have to be that funny, for the real joke – the great laugh, as it were – is triggered by the straight-man’s priggish reaction to it. The more pompous the straight-man, the funnier the joke.

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Beto O’Rourke may be the opposite of Trump – but is that what Texas wants?

Donald Trump’s dominance of the US political scene shows up in surprising ways, at surprising moments. For instance, in the retort of an exuberant Democratic senatorial candidate striving for headway in a televised debate with his incumbent Republican opponent. ‘He’s dishonest,’ says Congressman Robert Francis ‘Beto’ O’Rourke, assailing Sen, Ted Cruz. It’s why the president called him Lyin’ Ted, and it’s why the nickname stuck.’ Oh, boy, the Dems are looking to Donald Trump for character references? As I keep saying – and you’ve probably had the same thought – it’s a weird time we live in, getting weirder by the minute.

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Trump undaunted in the face of a midterm onslaught

Poor Paul Manafort. His defense attorney Kevin Downing asked if he could appear in his street clothing rather than a dark-green prison jumpsuit for his sentencing on Friday. Manafort, who has spent millions on bespoke suits, has always placed a premium on his public appearance. Judge T.S. Ellis III, however, was having none of it: ‘This defendant should be treated no differently from other defendants who are in custody post conviction.’Another former Donald Trump associate also got kicked in the shins this week, but the source wasn’t a federal judge. Instead, it was Trump who delivered the blow, dismissing his old chum and confederate Michael Cohen as a nobody.

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I feel for Elizabeth Warren. I pretended to be Jewish for a year

As a child, I was fond of a catchy little ditty called ‘I’m An Indian Too’ (‘A Sioux!’) Though she’s 10 years older than me, I wonder whether this ear-worm also stuck in the consciousness of the Democratic senator Elizabeth Warren, whose claim of Native American descent has recently been rubbished by both a DNA test which revealed her to be around 1/1024th of this persuasion (most of us are more unicorn than this, surely?) and the Cherokee Nation Secretary of State, Chuck Hoskin Jr, who accused Warren of ‘undermining tribal interests with her continued claims of tribal heritage.

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The heart of populism is identity, not race

There have been many efforts to explain the rise of global populism, most of which posit it as a blowback against globalisation and the unequal economic effects that it has had on developed-country populations. The liberal international order has exacerbated income inequality, with middle classes rising in places like China and India at the expense of working classes in North America and Western Europe. But there has been a competing explanation for the shift that is rooted in cultural identity rather than economics. Or rather, identity becomes the way that voters interpret economic decline.

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Let’s speak ill of Dennis Hof

Dennis Hof, America’s biggest pimp, is dead, and I am about to speak ill of him. Yes, I know the protocol – ‘wait until the body is at least cold’. But I won’t be following polite form in this instance, and I will not be alone. Hof, 72, was found dead in one of his brothels, after a weekend-long birthday celebration, by the porn actor Ron Jeremy. At the time of his death, Hof, who won the nomination contest for a Republican state assembly seat, was looking forward to becoming an elected politician. Hof, who was being investigated for various sexual crimes against women, including rape and trafficking, at the time of his death, made that other pimp and exploiter of women, Hugh Hefner, look like a radical feminist.

Teepee or not teepee? That is the question

It has long been fashionable for Americans to claim descent from Rebecca Rolfe (née Pocahontas) the heroical daughter of Chief Powhatan of Virginia. Woodrow Wilson’s wife was one, the actor, Glenn Strange, another. Then people started claiming any family connection whatsoever to Mrs Rolfe’s descendants, as the Bushes now do. Soon the great contagion spread to the point where everyone in the State of Virginia was descended from Mrs Rolfe, and then all the smart-sets from all the other states joined the rush for Native American blood of their own.

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Will the royal baby be an American?

The news that Duchess Meghan of Markle, Britain’s favourite American, has a right royal bun in the oven by dashing sex maniac Prince Harry brings a smile to the faces of all patriotic Britons. An absent-minded smile, the quiet smile of a polite, proud people as it visualises the Duke and Duchess of Sussex, butt naked in various positions, and tries to guess which one it was that resulted in conception. It’s a national game of Clue. This may seem intrusive, but the royals have never had their sex so privately. In the good old days, royalty mated like pandas, with difficulty and before an approving audience. A royal wedding was a diplomatic union, not a love match.

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Will Elizabeth Warren’s DNA results help her claim Trump’s scalp?

Geronimo! Elizabeth Warren, whom President Trump has repeatedly mocked as ‘Pocahontas,’ has now issued the results of a DNA test indicating that she does indeed have Native American ancestry going back some 6-10 generations. A video released by Warren shows her receiving the news from one Carlos Bustamante, a professor of genetics at Stanford University. According to Bustamante, ‘The facts suggest that you absolutely have a Native American ancestor in your pedigree.’ Trump has been fixated with Warren’s heritage.This was supposed to be his new ‘birther’ issue. In Iowa last week, he observed that he would like to ‘finally get down to the fact as to whether or not she has Indian blood.’ Why this was the case he did not indicate.

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The party of Pelosi can win in November — but not in 2020

What does it say about President Trump if Republicans lose control of the House of Representatives after the November 6 midterms? If your answer is that Trump is failure or Trump is a disaster for his party, then you have to say the same thing about President Clinton and President Obama, both of whom also lost the House in their first midterms. Here’s my prediction: the GOP will indeed lose control, but the swing to the Democrats will be smaller than the swing to Republicans was in 1994 (54 seats) or 2010 (63 seats). Trump will have outperformed Clinton and Obama, and on strictly empirical grounds — setting aside anti-Trump bias, including among NeverTrump media conservatives — any honest analyst will have to admit as much.

Gavin McInnes: ‘Personally I think the guy was looking to get beat up for optics’

Much has been made of the so-called ‘mob mentality’ of left-wing protesters in the last few weeks. The GOP has been eager to paint anti-Kavanaugh activists as the kind of hysterical torch-wielders that deeply concerned this country’s founders. It’s intriguing, therefore, to see how quickly many in the media seized the opportunity to show the violent ‘mob’ mindset in action on the right. Last night, VICE founder Gavin McInnes was the talk of Twitter after footage emerged showing a protester being beaten by a group of ‘Proud Boys’ (McInnes’s followers) on a Manhattan pavement. https://www.youtube.com/watch?

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Kanye West is winning Trump over with flattery. Does that make him a ‘madman’?

Shortly after yesterday’s outlandish Oval Office episode, several national political reporters under age 40, such as the New York Times’s Jonathan Martin and the Washington Post’s Ashley Parker, claimed total ignorance of Kanye West’s discography — as though impressed with themselves for being oblivious to one of American pop culture’s most titanic figures of the past decade and a half. Maybe they’ve really somehow never heard ‘Jesus Walks,’ ‘Gold Digger,’ or ‘Power,’ which would cast slight doubt on their ability to gauge the political sentiments of the population they purport to cover. Or maybe they just feel compelled to throw Kanye down the memory hole now that he’s taken up with Donald Trump.

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It’s that time again! Bloomberg considers White House run

Every four years, Michael Bloomberg hears something nobody else hears: a groundswell of support for a Michael Bloomberg presidential candidacy. Now, it’s happening again. Bloomberg, the media mogul with an estimated worth of $48 billion, announced on Wednesday that he has changed his political registration to Democrat. That makes a full circle for the former New York City mayor, who began as a Democrat, became a Republican, became an Independent, and has now returned home. ‘Today, I have re-registered as a Democrat — I had been a member for most of my life — because we need Democrats to provide the checks and balance our nation so badly needs,’ Bloomberg wrote in an Instagram post announcing his move. Democrats are welcoming Bloomberg — and his checkbook.

If America needs a manager, Michael Bloomberg bids to be the man

So Michael Bloomberg is now officially a Democrat. He started out as a Democrat, became a Republican, then an independent, and now he’s back to being a Democrat. These days, for a Manhattanite worth $52 billion, it’s the logical place to be. For their part, the Democrats, the erstwhile party of the workers, are happy enough to have him. After all, in 2016, Bloomberg loudly endorsed Hillary Clinton, and this year he has given the Democrats $100 million. And that’s on top of the many millions he has spent to advance liberal causes, notably gun control, climate change — and the dreaded super-sized soda. Still, that’s not the same thing as the Democrats’ being willing to pick him to lead anything — except perhaps their finance committee.

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Is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez a Republican in disguise?

I can't actually believe that Democratic ‘It Girl’ Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a Republican mole, any more than I really believe that Creepy Porn Lawyer Michael What’s-his-name is. But is the idea really so far fetched? Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the Supreme Court seemed to be foundering, buffeted as it was by a tsunami of groundless charges reaching back into his high school days. None was ‘credible,’ pace the talking points of Senators Feinstein, Spartacus, et al. But what sent that narrative into a tail spin was the Julie Swetnick Show, brought to you by the latest casualty of the memory hole, Creepy Porn Lawyer Something Avenatti.

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From Russia Today with love

I like to think I’m a journalist like any other. But I work at the RT London office. That’s the Russian state-funded news channel. Four days a week, I’m a straight up news reporter. But, once a week, I do an even more sinister job. On Wednesdays, I ascend an extra couple of floors to a different ‘zone’ within the RT London compound, where I join a stealthy, covert team of online propagandists. There, in the lair of online information warfare, (six sad looking desks and quite a bit of mundane office banter) we record a short, and (we hope) funny and often expletive-laden video on a topic of entirely our choosing, satirizing the sorry state of the world.

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Hitler’s descendants think Trump is doing a bad job

Donald Trump has been dogged by Nazi associations, whether it’s his reluctance to condemn David Duke during the campaign — after temporising, he finally said ‘I disavow,’ though what, exactly, he was disavowing he left unclear — or the Charlottesville rally, which he said in August 2017 had ‘some very fine people on both sides.’ Now comes Germany’s popular tabloid Bild newspaper to sound out Hitler’s surviving great-nephews — Brian, Louis, and Alexander Stuart-Houston — about their views of Trump. They represent the last paternal bloodline of the family and live on Long Island. Their father William Patrick was born in 1911 in Liverpool, the descendant of Alois Hitler, a half-brother of the Führer.

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What Putin and Trump understand about UFC

Did you watch the Conor McGregor fight at the weekend? It wasn’t for the faint hearted. McGregor took a stupendous beating from a man, Khabib Nurmagomedov, whose hairline seems to start at his eyebrows. I’d got out of bed at 4am to watch and quickly rather wished I hadn’t. There was nothing balletic or mesmerising about the megaviolence, the way there often is with a McGregor fight. Instead, it was like watching a particularly brutal and skilful bludgeoning outside a pub. Khabib spent a good portion of the contest squatting over his prone opponent and thumping him very hard in the face. As I say, not an easy watch in the small hours, although there was an excellent riot at the end.

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Trump’s luck and the Democratic death wish

Do you remember what the political landscape looked like before L’affaire Kavanaugh? If you don’t, that’s not surprising. A week in politics is long; a month in Trumpworld is an eternity. Let us rewind, then, to that dim-lit Sunday, September 16, when the Washington Post first ran the Christine Blasey Ford story. Trump was in trouble. His approval rating was 40 per cent. The Dems were surging in the polls; and talk was all about a midterm blue wave crashing over the administration. The rumbling of a trade war with China was giving fright. The Mueller, Cohen, Manafort scandals were bumping along, each adding to the common sense that, even if no smoking Russian gun, Trump’s circle is significantly dodgier than a President’s should be.

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The yin of Andrew Yang

Single issue campaigns are often built around whimsy. The Polish Beer Lovers’ Party springs deliciously to mind, as do Jimmy McMillan’s tireless efforts to remind New Yorkers that the rent was too damn high. Andrew Yang’s attempt to become the Democratic Party candidate for the 2020 elections is based on an idea that might seem whimsical and yet he is a deeply serious man. His campaign is to address the problem of automation: how, in other words, to make the best of a future where machines have rendered millions of jobs redundant. The first thing to be said is that Yang has about as much of a chance of becoming the Democrat nominee as this author has of becoming the UFC heavyweight champion.

Black Mirror politics is coming to the midterms

Black Mirror politics is coming to America, courtesy of a new Democratic initiative called Citizen Strong. Announcing their existence in Bloomberg this week, Citizen Strong claims to have assembled an army of 17,000 amateur secret police who have spent months looking for damaging material on dozens of vulnerable Republicans in Congress and state legislatures. The information - presumably embarrassing at least, career ending at worst - will be unleashed on them just in time for the midterms. Though this kind of dirt-digging is as old as politics itself, the direction the Democrats are taking opposition research through Citizen Strong reveals how it has been re-energised and refashioned by the communications technology of the early 21st century.

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What’s the matter with Kansas? Trump heads inland to find out

Donald Trump celebrated the confirmation of the second Supreme Court justice of his presidency at the Kansas Expocentre in Topeka on Saturday evening, in a typically boisterous rally meant to boost Republicans running in the state. But all is not well in the land of Oz. Kansas, thought to be a deep-red state which went for Trump in 2016 by more than 20 per cent, nonetheless is posing problems for GOP candidates running in November. The legacy of former governor Sam Brownback, one of the least popular governors in the nation, may be having an impact on the race, despite having left office in January to become Trump’s Ambassador-at-Large for International Religious Freedom.

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Kavanaugh confirmed, despite the Democratic ‘search and destroy mission’

Teachers Scotch used to run an amusing ad that read ‘In life, experience is the great teacher. In Scotch, Teachers is the great experience.’ Droll, what? But is it true? Or was T. S. Eliot’s mournful observation that ‘we had the experience but missed the meaning’ more pertinent to our situation? What happens in the aftermath of Judge — as of a few minutes ago, make that ‘Justice’ — Brett Kavanaugh’s bizarre confirmation process will tell us a lot about whether we have learned anything from the horrible experience of the last weeks. When the Senate voted 50 to 48 to confirm Kavanaugh, they drew a line under a battle that was not just bitter but insane.

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Kagan and Sotomayor discuss everything but Kavanaugh at Princeton

Supreme Court Justices Elena Kagan and Sonia Sotomayor spoke for more than an hour on Friday evening at Princeton University about the importance of neutrality for justices and the struggles women face in the workplace without once saying the name ‘Kavanaugh.’ ‘It’s an incredibly important thing for the court to guard, is this reputation of being fair, of being impartial, of being neutral,’ Kagan said. ‘This is a challenge.’ Both justices spoke at length about the necessity of preserving the Court’s reputation for fairness and neutrality. Kagan noted that having a swing vote, such as Justices Sandra Day O’Connor and Anthony Kennedy, has made the court seem more balanced.

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J’accuse! America gets its own Dreyfus Affair

After several excruciating weeks, the sordid spectacle surrounding Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the Supreme Court is finally coming to an end. A Senate vote is expected imminently. Republicans seem confident that Judge Kavanaugh will be promoted to the highest court in the land, but nothing is over until it’s over. Regardless of the outcome, the Kavanaugh affair isn’t going anywhere.It will dog American politics for years, even decades to come. The partisan nastiness surrounding the Kavanaugh nomination is a hinge point in our political life – no matter what one thinks about the judge and his case.

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How Trumpian should a GOP candidate be to win a midterm?

It’s Donald Trump’s party now, but Republicans are still struggling with what that means. The primaries weren’t especially kind to insurgent candidates who imitated the president’s brash style — albeit almost uniformly without his humor or marketing flare — or wrapped themselves in the MAGA flag. That’s not to say Trump didn’t have an outsized influence in the party’s nominating contests this year. He most certainly did, as Ron DeSantis, Brian Kemp and Kris Kobach — the Republican gubernatorial nominees in Florida, Georgia and Kansas, respectively — can all attest. So can soon-to-be former Rep. Mark Sanford of South Carolina. When Alabama’s Rep.

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Don’t blame Trump for the Presidential Alert folly

Watch out, Twitter — Donald Trump doesn’t need you anymore. He now has his own Presidential Alert system that can send messages right to every cell phone in the country. Twitter allowed Trump to bypass the traditional media when he wanted to; the service is a sterling example of ‘disintermediation’ and the direct connection that can now be established between celebrities and the public. But with his new text alerts, Trump can well and truly speak directly to people without any fear of censorship by a tech zillionaire. Or at least he could if the Presidential Alert system actually were such a thing, and not just a 21st-century analogue to the dowdy old Emergency Broadcast System that used to transmit a beep to TVs and radios once a month.

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Why are the New York Times’s ‘law professors’ pretending the Kavanaugh hearings weren’t partisan?

The FBI’s additional background check on Brett Kavanaugh isn’t the only document regarding President Donald Trump’s Supreme Court nominee being presented to the Senate today. On Wednesday night, the New York Times published online a letter headlined ‘The Senate Should Not Confirm Kavanaugh, Signed, 650 Law Professors.’ By Thursday, the number of signatories had jumped to more than 1,700. The letter comes as Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell set in motion events that will likely result in a final vote on Kavanaugh’s appointment early Saturday evening. Word had it that the FBI hadn’t found any additional evidence to corroborate Christine Blasey Ford’s allegation that Kavanaugh attempted to rape her when they were high school students.

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Kavanaugh is almost through — but at what cost to the Republicans?

Senator Mitch McConnell was right. Brett Kavanaugh will become a member of the Supreme Court. Senators Flake and Collins are already making reassuring noises about the new FBI report. But will his investiture help the GOP?The investigation demanded by Flake and others has proven not to have investigated very much. Mark Judge and a few other of Kavanaugh’s high school cronies were interviewed. Kavanaugh himself was not. Nor was Christine Blasey Ford. Senator Charles Grassley says about the FBI report that ‘there’s nothing in it that we didn’t already know.’ That was by design. Federal gumshoes found what the White House wanted them to find.