Latest from Coffee House

Latest from Coffee House

All the latest analysis of the day's news and stories

Political tides have made the ‘blue wave’ impossible

All day Election Day, everyone — well, everyone in the business — looks for early signs of the results to come. I heard reports from friends in real life and on Twitter that the lines at polling stations were far longer in the D.C. suburbs and New York City today than they were during the contentious Trump-Clinton contest of 2016. Such anecdotal data seemed to confirmed the predictions of most pundits that a ‘blue wave’ would see Democrats take over the House of Representatives and make it difficult for Republicans to keep control of the Senate. But of course cities of the elites would see a lot of enthusiasm today: They’re the centers of the #Resistance determined to vote against the president, even if he isn’t directly on the ballot himself.

blue wave beto o’rourke
midterm results

Only an idiot would predict tonight’s midterm results. So let me oblige

If a midterm is a referendum on a presidency, it is one that presidents usually lose, especially Republican presidents. Since the Civil War, the president’s party has gained seats one only three occasions: 1934, 1998 and 2002. Only on the last of those was recipient of the public’s inexplicable affection was a Republican president, in this case George W. Bush. And in that instance the public’s affection was explicable in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks. So yes, Republican losses tonight will constitute a diminution of Donald Trump’s presidency. The question is not one of nature but of degree. Will the diminution resemble a mild paddling of the kind that a pornographic actress might perform on the presidential backside with a rolled-up magazine?

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In Michigan, Elissa Slotkin aims squarely for the middle

Paying homage to Republican national security officials and touting your allegiance to intelligence agencies might seem like an odd strategy to channel the enthusiasm of anti-Trump voters this election cycle but it’s the course chosen by a handful of CIA-operatives-turned-Democrats with decent odds to win House seats today. Foremost among them is Elissa Slotkin, a former ‘Principal Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Policy’ in the Obama administration who is quick to point out that she also served dutifully under George W. Bush, and apparently assumes that will have electoral appeal among voters in Michigan’s 8th congressional district.

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Will Jon Tester win in Montana?

The Democratic Party appears to see its red-state Senate races as sticky short-term exercises in triangulation and coalition-building, best conducted as far from the national spotlight as possible. It has neglected the opportunity of grouping this handful of candidates behind an assertive vision of its own future leadership in rural and small-town America. Take the Democratic senator Jon Tester, the only working farmer in the United States Senate. ‘Jon? He’s just real,’ said Martha Small, a member of the Northern Cheyenne tribe I spoke to. ‘He’s a real person. My concerns are his concerns. Public lands, Native American issues – suicide among our 18-24 youths being the number one.

forecasting midterms

Forecasting the midterms: pick your poison

Would you like to forecast a ‘better than expected night for the GOP’? Start saying things like ‘interest levels in the elections are broadly similar between the two parties — if Dems were going to have such a great night, why aren’t they ahead in this key metric?’ or, ‘remember the enthusiasm gap closed after the Kavanaugh hearings.’ On the other hand, if you want to make the case for the Blue Wave, you’ll probably find there’s even more data to help back you up. Start by looking to YouGov/CBS News’s final MRP model (the same approach that proved super accurate in last year’s UK general election) showing a likely 225-210 Democratic win in the House.

The Democratic faithful are spooked

‘Remember, remember the 5th of November/ The gunpowder treason and plot . . .’ Well, it’s not Guy Fawkes who is planning to blow up things this November. It’s our version of the Picts: blue-dyed political marauders swarming over the ramparts in Hollywood, universities, Democratic campaign offices, and woke, acronymic former news channels. If you calibrate the performances just right, it can look like a confident pep rally. ‘We’re really going to show those knuckle-dragging, toxic male Caucasian deplorables this time! Two, four, six, eight, whom do you repudiate? Trump! Trump! Trump!’ The networks and newspapers and internet sites are abuzz with polls and prognostications.

democratic faithful spooked

Why aren’t Republicans campaigning on the economy? Trump!

Friday brought boffo news for the Republicans, just four days before the midterm elections that will determine if the party keeps control of both chambers of Congress. The Wall Street Journal succinctly captured the story: ‘Wages Rise at Fastest Rate in Nearly a Decade as Hiring Jumps: Unemployment rate held at a 49-year low in October; wages increased 3.1%.’ As the story went on to explain, a few factors converged to paint a particularly positive economic picture last month. ‘Employers shook off a September slowdown to add 250,000 jobs to their payrolls in October, above monthly averages in recent years, the Labor Department said Friday. With unemployment holding at 3.7 percent, a 49-year low, and employers competing for scarce workers, wages increased 3.

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The troika of absurdity

In a speech richly deserving adaption as a Saturday Night Live skit, US national security adviser John Bolton has unveiled the latest extension of America’s enemies list. Eclipsing the post-9/11 ‘Axis of Evil’ we now have a ‘Troika of Tyranny,’ consisting of those powerhouse troublemakers Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua. According to Bolton, ‘this triangle of terror stretching from Havana to Caracas to Managua is the cause of immense human suffering, the impetus of enormous regional instability, and the genesis of a sordid cradle of communism in the Western Hemisphere.’ But fear not. Under the leadership of President Trump, the United States is now ‘taking direct action against all three regimes to defend the rule of law, liberty, and basic human decency in our region.

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Don’t fall for Pelosi’s claims of civility: Democrats will be ruthless if they take power

What does the Democratic Party stand for other than visceral and vocal opposition to President Donald Trump? Ask the average Democrat on the street, and you’re likely to get a million different answers; it’s one of the major reasons why the party has been struggling to define itself since Trump shocked the universe with his upset victory in November 2016. ‘The Resistance’ will settle for nothing short of pitchfork leftist populism, a rambunctiousness that party elders tend to regard as juvenile.Nancy Pelosi, the House Speaker-in-waiting, has tried to demonstrate a more mature face of the party to American voters less than a week before the polls open.

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The Trumps are focused on securing the Senate

Will the King be toppled? No one is likely to observe of Steve King of Iowa, as nasty a piece of work as has ever served as a Congressman, ‘My heart is inditing of a good matter: I speak of the things which I have made unto the King.’ Intel and Land O’Lakes have rescinded their financial backing for him. King isn’t running any ads or even much of a campaign for reelection. His challenger J.D. Scholten, by contrast, has raised some $641,000 in the past two days. At the same time, the press is brimming with stories about young people turning out in droves to vote. The Cook Report has revised its predictions to indicate that the Democrats may win up to 40 seats in the House.

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Tech doesn’t have a gender problem

The tech sector, we are forever being told, has a gender problem. Recently, for example, Women in Technology International reported that only a quarter of US information technology workers are women – something which it was quick to claim was a result of ‘unconscious bias’. How else, it invited us to ask ourselves, can the proportion of women in technology be so low when women receive 57 percent of college degrees and nearly half of professional degrees in law, medicine, and the physical sciences? Worse, we are led to think, the bias is inbred in the machines themselves.

Why are Democrats blue?

It is a curious fact that while English conservatives identify with the colour blue and English lefties with the colour red, the opposite is the case in America. I have struggled to recollect why the Democrats chose blue in 2000 but rather suspect it had something to do what Dr Christine Blasey Ford would call the ‘prefrontal cortex’. Many human decisions are taken on emotional grounds and emotion, as we are taught, is often governed by childhood memory.

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Calm down, President Trump won’t change birthright citizenship yet

Donald Trump has been on full offense in the run up to next week’s midterms. The latest front he’s opened with Democrats is over ‘birthright citizenship,’ the practice of awarding citizenship to almost anyone who happens to the born in US territory, regardless of the parents’ allegiance. Liberals insist that the 14th Amendment guarantees this method of making citizens; conservatives take a more restrictive view of the amendment’s language, which recognizes the citizenship of ‘All persons born or naturalised in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof…’ Are children born to illegal immigrants, for example, subject to US ‘jurisdiction’ in the every sense?

Jacob Wohl and the moronic attempt to #MeToo Robert Mueller

Does Robert Mueller have a secret sex life? A Republican activist named Jack Burkman, who previously touted the conspiracy theory that Democratic National Committee staffer Seth Rich was assassinated by members of the Deep State, has apparently been investigating the past life of Trump’s chief investigator. His aim was to ferret out misdeeds by the G-man whose true interest was supposed to be the G-spot. The amateurish plot against Mueller fizzled out fairly quickly, but it has caught the interest of the FBI. It seems to have centred on a former female paralegal who knew Mueller at the Pillsbury, Madison and Sutro law firm in 1974, though not very well, by her own accounting.

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At last, a Jordan Peterson vs. feminist debate that isn’t an absolute bloodbath

The British edition of GQ is 30 years old and, to celebrate its birthday, it is conducting a ‘dissection of masculinity’. I can’t help feeling that’s a bit of a shame – if a men’s magazine won’t celebrate masculinity, who will?  – but fear not. The male gender still has one unapologetic champion – step forward Canadian psychology professor Dr Jordan Peterson – and, as part of this promotional push, GQ sent Helen Lewis to interview him. Those hoping for a re-run of Peterson’s famous encounter with Cathy Newman, the Channel 4 News presenter, will be disappointed. Peterson comes out on top, of course, but Lewis, the deputy editor of the New Statesman, is better prepared than Newman.

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America’s first quantum president

Talmudic tradition establishes a practice of providing a variety of voices and understandings, which could lead to multiple versions of any position. Or as the old saying goes, ‘ask two Jews, you’ll get three opinions.’ Recently, in the aftermath of the massacre at the Tree of Life Synagogue in Pittsburgh and the earlier bomb-spree scare, I had the opportunity to test the validity of this famous aphorism, when as a libertarian-conservative Jew, adhering to classical liberal positions, who decided to cast his vote for Donald Trump in 2016 (after considering voting for Gary Johnson), I had a somewhat long and scorching email exchange with a liberal Jewish friend who also happens to be an enraged anti-Trumpist.

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The audacity of Obama’s lying

What makes a good liar? It’s a harder question to answer than you might think, partly because it’s a harder and more complex thing to accomplish than you might think. Let me begin by acknowledging that I do not have a satisfactory answer to the question. Nevertheless, as an aficionado of the sport, I admire from afar expert practitioners. And I was reminded just a few days ago that we have in our midst a grand master of mendacity. In his speech in Milwaukee on Friday, Barack Obama demonstrated once again his effortless, masterly deployment of deceit. Again, I do not say that we groundlings have been vouchsafed all the inner workings of the mechanism. But one thing is clear from Obama’s performance: brazenness is key.

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Should Donald Trump spend his ‘Executive Time’ learning how to empathise?

This morning Matt Drudge tweeted, ‘A segment on Fox News this morning where hosts laughed and joked their way through a discussion on political impact of terror was bizarre. Not even 48 hours since blood flowed at synagogue? Check your soul in the makeup chair!’ A new Gallup poll indicates that one week before the midterms, a number of voters may also be checking out from supporting Donald Trump. His numbers dropped from a 44 per cent approval rating a week ago to 40 per cent. Trump has made the elections a referendum on himself, which means that he has bet the house, so to speak, on whether or not the GOP retains the Senate and House. If it does, he emerges as America’s strongman.

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The dangerous politics of guilt by association

Pittsburgh is less a city than a loose federation of urban villages, of which Squirrel Hill provides a classic example. A long-thriving heart of Jewish life and culture, an authentically rooted community, Squirrel Hill is now irrevocably scarred by the murderous actions of one monster, whose crimes will leave a legacy of social harm and intimidation for a generation. Robert Bowers’s attributed words about wishing to kill Jews leave no doubt of the explicitly political character of the act. No worthwhile definition of terrorism could fail to include an act like this. But as in any case of terrorism, identifying an act is only the first stage in a much larger process of interpretation and rhetorical expansion.

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Liberals don’t want Donald Trump to be civil. They want him to lose

Independence of mind is nowadays in short supply among the commentariat. Certain big background concepts have been propagated thoroughly enough that everyone knows just what to write as soon as anything happens. If there’s any doubt — or worse, any resistance — wave upon wave of goodthink browbeating will put a quick end to it. And if that fails, a dissenter’s sheer sense of futility may do the trick. What’s the point of insisting that two and two is four when everyone else in the clever class insists it’s five? Edmund Burke never gave up.

The trouble with baby boomers and social media

Spending too long online can take its toll, no matter your age. The majority of under 35s grew up squinting at backlit screens with bags below their eyes, poring over forums and AOL Messenger, pornography and Netflix. Yet somehow it’s baby boomers who are the worst victims of the internet: technologically dumb, easily scammed, and often more susceptible to fake news. And it looks as if Cesar Sayoc, the Florida man arrested in connection to the pipe bombs sent to prominent Democrats and left-wing celebrities, is the latest spectacular example of a silver (or in his case, it seems. hairplugged) surfer going off the deep end.

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Can America learn to shut its mouth?

Interviewed earlier this week, 80-year-old American actress Jane Fonda said that she has dropped some of her oldest friends for holding political opinions that are at odds with her own and that she is so afraid of Donald Trump that she can ‘hardly breathe’. She needs to see a doctor. Apnea is no laughing matter and whether her condition is attributable to President Trump or to other factors, she must have it seen to. Many women complain of breathing difficulties following plastic surgery operations to their noses and breasts. Could her air pipes have deteriorated from years of bouncing around on videos in tight leotards? Or might the orgasm machine into which Dr Durand Durand placed her in Barbarella 50 years ago have something to do with it?

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Bombgate and the new species of political theatre

Andrew McCarthy, writing in National Review Online a couple of days ago, was certainly correct that it would have been outrageous and irresponsible to have suggested, at that early juncture of this still-unfolding episode, that the pipe ‘bombs’ were hoaxes devised by leftist activists to make it appear that nebulous right wing activists are targeting famous critics of Donald Trump, from Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, all the way down the food chain to Senator ‘Spartacus’ Booker and Mad Maxine Waters. But the fact that McCarthy’s column is titled ‘Why No One Trusts the Media’ tells you that his prudent restraint is redolent of that device rhetoricians denominate apophasis or praeteritio.

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Why are fake bombs sent to Democrats more shocking than real ricin packages to Republicans?

Remember that time American media was consumed with news that the deadly poison ricin – contact with the skin can be deadly – was sent to President Trump, Republican Senator Ted Cruz, Defense Secretary James Mattis, and the Chief of Naval Operations, Admiral John Richardson? Remember all of the introspective opinion pieces wondering if attacks on the president had gone too far? Or if claiming that Republican policies kill people, might not be an incitement to violence? Me either. But who can remember all the way back to October 2? There are a few other differences between then and now. The target then was the president, his Secretary of Defense, a senior naval officer, and a Republican Senator.

The pipe bombs could actually help Trump in the midterms

Seven days before the Brexit referendum, the Labour MP Jo Cox was out campaigning for Britain to remain in the European Union, when she was shot, stabbed and murdered by a far-right maniac shouting ‘Britain First’. People were shocked, and shock instantly turned to rage. This is what happens, they said, when you fan the flames of right-wing extremism. Pundits pointed at a provocative UKIP poster that showed a queue of migrants from the developing world and said, in Trumpian capitals, BREAKING POINT. That was a clear incitement to violence, they said. The whole political/media class thought that was that. The staff at Vote Leave (the official, pro-Brexit campaign, who hadn’t put out that poster) were despondent.

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After bomb threats to Democrats, Trump’s election strategy is in jeopardy

Donald Trump, only a few hours ago seen as a master manipulator in the run-up to the midterm elections, has lost the narrative, at least for now. ‘This egregious conduct is abhorrent to everything we hold dear and sacred as Americans,’ he said today. ‘I just want to tell you that in these times we have to unify, we have to come together and send one very clear, strong, unmistakable message that acts or threats of political violence of any kind have no place in the United States of America.’ When Trump is reduced to issuing such emollient statements, he is decidedly on the backfoot.Tonight Trump is scheduled to attend a rally in Wisconsin. Media scrutiny will be more intense than ever.

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The caravan of the saints

You can feel the excitement in Fox News’s reports that a DHS spokesman, backing the claims that Trump has now walked back, has confirmed that the migrant caravan that has just entered Mexico includes ‘gang members’ and people with ‘significant criminal histories’, as well as people from the Middle East. How hot and uncomfortable they must be, walking all that way in an explosive vest. You can feel the disappointment in CNN’s report that by November 6, the migrant caravan ‘could still be somewhere in the middle of Mexico’, and well short of what CNN recommends as the ‘safest route’, to San Diego via Tijuana.

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Bombs in Democratic mailboxes show how ugly American politics has become

Whoever posted these bombs, he or she clearly doesn’t care for Democrats and progressives; suspicious devices were sent to the Clintons, Barack Obama, Trump critic John Brennan, billionaire George Soros, Maxine Waters, Eric Holder, the Democratic National Committee, and CNN’s New York studios. Fortunately, nobody has been killed or hurt. Unfortunately, the bombs have already told us something about how ugly American politics has become. Commentators have been quick to say that Donald Trump deserves blame for his purposely divisive rhetoric.

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The Democrats need a political entrepreneur

The law of political gravity favours the Democrats in the midterm elections less than two weeks away. They will gain seats in the House of Representatives no matter what they do, barring an upset of a kind that has happened only twice in the last 80 years. Curiously, both exceptions to the rule that the president’s party loses ground in the midterms were either side of the 2000 election. The Democrats under Bill Clinton picked up five House seats in 1998; the Republicans under George W. Bush gained eight in 2002. There were unusual circumstances at play in both instances: Republicans in 1998 were getting ready to impeach Clinton, while in 2002 the Bush administration was preparing for the Iraq War while the memory of 9/11 was still fresh in voters’ minds.

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Is the prospect of prison time enough to crack Roger Stone?

Robert Mueller is getting stoned. Not in any corporeal sense, I hasten to note. Rather, his investigation appears to be focusing on any ties that the Trump campaign may have had to the voluble former Nixon operative Roger Stone. Like Michael Cohen, who once proclaimed that he would take a bullet for Donald Trump, Stone is now noisily professing his loyalty to the president. ‘The special counsel pokes into every aspect of my social, family, personal, business and political life, seeking something — anything — he can use to pressure me, to silence me and to try to induce me to testify against my friend Donald Trump,’ Stone declared in a recent video. ‘This I will not do.

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When justice is a PR stunt

Last week the public was informed of the indictment of a Russian citizen, ‘Elena Alekseevna Khusyaynova, 44’, for conspiring to defraud the United States. What had she done wrong? According to FBI Special Agent, David Holt, whose girlish signature appears on the official ‘Criminal Complaint’ submitted to a District Court in Virginia, she had served, since 2014, as an accountant to a firm in St Petersburg that had attempted to influence the American electorate by posting discourteous opinions about US politicians and officials online.