Middle East

Trying to predict what comes next in Syria after the toppling of dictator Bashar al-Assad is a fool’s errand. It is hard not to be moved by the jubilant scenes in Damascus but we have been here before: Assad’s downfall evokes images and memories of far too many other recent uprisings in the region. The masses celebrating freedom signifies nothing beyond the joy of tasting momentary escape from decades of tyranny Who can forget the joyful crowds in Baghdad tearing down the statue of Saddam Hussein after the 2003 American-led invasion of Iraq? There was similar joy in Egypt in 2011 when Hosni Mubarak’s thirty-year dictatorship came to an end, and the

One hundred years after the world’s major powers conceived the landscape of the modern Middle East, the tumultuous events unfolding in Syria have the potential to enact an equally profound reorientation of the region’s political dynamics. The Cairo conference of 1921, where Winston Churchill famously quipped that he had created the new kingdom of Jordan ‘with the stroke of a pen on a Sunday afternoon’, was responsible for creating the modern geography of the Middle East. Present-day Syria emerged from the remnants of the larger domain that had existed during the Ottoman era. There are practical issues that must be addressed, such as the rehabilitation of an estimated 13 million

There are unintended consequences, and then there are unintended consequences. What we are seeing in Syria, as Aleppo and Hama fall (and Homs braces itself) to a coalition of anti-regime forces whose DNA is to be found in al-Qaeda et al, is an unintended consequence of Israel’s bombardment in Syria of Iran-funded pro-Assad groups, and the pulverising of Hezbollah in Lebanon. An unintended consequence of the weakening of Iran and its Axis of Resistance. For the three pillars on which Bashar al-Assad props up (for the time being) his murderous kleptocratic narco-state – Iran, Hezbollah and Russia – are, respectively, on their ‘best’ behaviour in the hope of talks with

This week’s state visit by the Emir of Qatar is the first of any Arab leader since King Charles ascended the throne. This is no coincidence: while its role is often misunderstood, Qatar has skilfully positioned itself as one of the West’s most important allies in the Middle East. Doha’s role as the world’s mediator-in-chief is only going to become more important With the current conflict in the Levant showing no signs of slowing, the Russo-Ukrainian War entering a critical phase, and events in Syria and Yemen increasing the risk of a wider conflict, Doha’s role as the world’s mediator-in-chief is only going to become more important. Yet the polarisation

Syrian Sunni Islamist fighters are continuing to consolidate their gains in Syria’s Aleppo province. Almost the entirety of Aleppo city, sometimes called the capital of Syria’s north, is now in the hands of the Turkey-backed fighters. Russian and Assad regime airstrikes have begun in earnest on opposition-held parts of the country’s north west. The lightning advance of the insurgents has now slowed down. Fresh from their triumph in Aleppo, the Sunni fighters sought to push into Hama province further south. Elements of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS – or the ‘Organization for the liberation of Syria/the Levant’), which is spearheading the push south, entered the suburbs of the city but were

The mood music from Tehran regarding Donald Trump’s election victory was a mixture of ‘don’t care,’ and ‘very much do care.’ Regime insiders remember only too well the toll Trump’s last four years took on their state; Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Commander Qassem Soleimani killed; economy shattered; regionally isolated due to Israeli-Arab normalisation. Trump is not a popular figure in the Khamenei household. But others reacted with a shrug; we’ve dealt with him before and survived. Why not now? Many ordinary Iranians welcomed the pressure he’d bring to bear on the regime, hoping it may prove decisive. Trump is well known for being an admirer of pre-revolutionary Iran, miniskirts,

Following the mass ballistic missile attack on Israel at the beginning of the month, speculation is rife once again that Iran might close the Strait of Hormuz should it be subject to the reprisal attack promised by Israel. The thinking is that this is particularly likely if Israel were to attack Iranian oil facilities. Iran certainly has the capability to close the Strait, at least in the short term. Recent experience in the Red and Black Seas shows clearly that not every ship attempting passage needs to be attacked: the increased risk – and heightened insurance premiums – following a small number of attacks will be enough to persuade owners to

Lebanon is teetering on the edge of a seismic political shift, facing increasing pressure both from internal factions and external military threats. Years of dominance in Lebanon’s political and military arenas have not shielded the terror group Hezbollah from devastating external blows, including the assassination of its longtime leader, Hassan Nasrallah. The group’s entrenched power within the country’s political, military, and social structures has long presented a seemingly insurmountable challenge. As the group’s grip appears to weaken, a rare moment of vulnerability has emerged, one that could reshape Lebanon’s future. Yet the question remains: will this be a fleeting opportunity or the beginning of Lebanon’s long-awaited liberation from Hezbollah’s shadow?