Samuel Ramani

Samuel Ramani is a politics tutor at the University of Oxford and associate fellow at RUSI. He is writing a book on Russia’s war with Ukraine, which will be published by Hurst and Co in December 2022

How Qatar helped Trump broker peace in Iran

From our UK edition

Qatar is basking in its latest diplomatic success. On Monday evening, Qatari diplomats brokered a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. This truce remains intact despite Iran’s parliamentary vote to suspend cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) nuclear watchdog and brinkmanship over alleged breaches of the ceasefire.  Qatar’s success was the product of years of tenacious diplomacy and capitalisation on time-tested partnerships with the key warring parties. During the summer of 2022, Qatar hosted indirect nuclear negotiations between US and Iranian officials. While these talks did not produce immediate results, Qatar continued its efforts. In August 2023, Qatar facilitated a US-Iran hostage deal that led to the unfreezing of $6 billion (£4.

Does Qatar still hold the key to a Hamas hostage deal?

From our UK edition

Qatar is the Middle East’s mediator-in-chief. The assassination of Hamas’s senior leadership and Gaza War’s regionalisation to Lebanon have not thwarted Qatar’s push for a ceasefire and the release of ninety-seven Israeli hostages in Hamas’s custody.  The CIA and Mossad chiefs brainstormed plans for a hostage release deal Qatari prime minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani welcomed US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to Doha last Thursday. Sheikh Mohammed announced that Qatar had 're-engaged' with Hamas after Yahya Sinwar’s death and would host US and Israeli negotiators for ceasefire talks. Blinken enthusiastically endorsed this proposal. On Sunday, CIA chief Bill Burns and Mossad head David Barnea arrived in Doha.

Spare a thought for Russia’s forgotten political prisoners

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Last Thursday’s prisoner exchange with the US was a rare victory for human rights in Russia. Vladimir Kara-Murza, the Vice Chairman of Open Russia and protégé of slain opposition figure Boris Nemtsov, was freed from his 25-year sentence for treason. Ilya Yashin, a liberal politician who called Vladimir Putin a ‘war criminal’ and said Russia’s wartime censorship laws were unconstitutional, saw his eight-and-a-half-year sentence terminated. The chairs of the shuttered human rights organisation Memorial Oleg Orlov and Sasha Skochilenko are also embracing their newfound freedom.  Despite only just escaping Putin’s draconian prisons, the eyes of these human rights crusaders are firmly on Russia’s future.

The paradox at the heart of Russia’s missile strategy

From our UK edition

Russia has launched five waves of missile strikes against Ukraine’s civilian infrastructures since 10 October. These strikes have damaged or destroyed almost half of Ukraine’s electricity infrastructure and made blackouts a way of life across Ukraine and neighboring Moldova. Nato Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has aptly accused Russia of ‘weaponising winter’ against Ukraine and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned that Russia will not ‘calm down’ as long as it has missiles. Russia’s deployment of a warship capable of carrying Kalibr missiles to the Black Sea suggests that the worst may be yet to come for Ukraine’s war-ravaged cities.

Putin doesn’t need to seize Kyiv to destroy Ukraine

From our UK edition

Russia and Ukraine took one step forward and two steps back in the search for an elusive peace settlement during talks last week. Negotiators met in Istanbul to discuss Ukraine’s potential accession to the EU and Nato, the status of Crimea and Donbas, and security guarantees for Ukraine. But Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov and Russia’s chief negotiator Vladimir Medinsky dismissed hopes of a breakthrough and dashed hopes for a meeting between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky. Russia’s bad faith approach to negotiations with Ukraine is unsurprising and fully aligns with its conduct during previous military interventions.