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Why Xi thinks he has the upper hand

Taiwan is “the most important issue,” Xi Jinping warned Donald Trump. “If mishandled, the two nations could collide or even come into conflict, pushing the entire China-US relationship into a highly perilous situation,” according to Chinese state media. The contrast with Trump’s comments was striking. Trump had earlier named trade as the most important issue. In opening remarks, the American President stuck to bland flattery, saying he and Xi had a “fantastic relationship,” that Xi was a “great leader” and that “it is an honor to be your friend.” “The relationship between China and the USA is going to be better than ever before,” he insisted.

Spotlight

Featured economics news and data.

Cutting Britain’s giant welfare bill would be an act of kindness

Does having money really matter that much? There are those, usually with quite a bit of it, who want us to care less about materialism. But, unequivocally, money really does matter – not because of any status it supposedly brings, but for the freedom it buys: freedom to choose how we live and how we look after others. Considering this, it seems that the deep disillusionment with mainstream politicians in recent years stems from a protracted and ongoing period of stagnant living standards over which they have presided. But the truth is that the average person has not got poorer since the global financial crisis. They have got a little bit richer. Employment levels are still exceptionally high. And, both historically and internationally, we are a very rich country.

Steve Bannon: ‘We have to end the Cold War with Russia’

Yesterday, in central London, I spent an interesting hour with Stephen K. Bannon, discussing the fall out from President Trump’s Helsinki summit. We recorded a podcast which you can listen to here: https://audioboom.com/posts/6936042-steve-bannon-why-china-is-a-bigger-threat-than-russia I asked Bannon whether he felt the media were right to be working themselves into such a lather over Trump’s apparent siding with Russia over American intelligence services over the 2016 election – this was before the Commander-in-Chief’s peculiar ‘double negative’ volte-face in the afternoon. In reply, Bannon reiterated the now fairly standard – nonetheless fair – point that the media conflates Russian meddling with Russian collusion.

Trump is behaving like a caudillo in trying to intimidate Harley-Davidson

President Trump declared “Wow!” after he learned of the Supreme Court’s 5-4 decision upholding the third version of his travel ban. It’s a big victory for him. In its decision, the Supreme Court pointed to national security concerns, which Trump has consistently invoked about immigration and trade.The dubious decision underscores the extent to America has become a national security state. The Washington Post reports that a major new study indicates that a majority of Americans believe that the United States is in peril of becoming a “nondemocratic, authoritarian country.” Eight in 10 said they are “somewhat” or “very” apprehensive about the state of democracy in America.

What’s the real reason Jared Kushner lost his security clearance?

Jared Kushner had his security clearance restored last month. He can, once again, read classified documents, such as the President’s Daily Brief, or PDB, which contains some of the nation’s most sensitive secrets. Many American commentators said this must mean Kushner is out of danger with the special counsel’s inquiry into the Trump campaign and Russia. If the special counsel, Robert Mueller, had turned up anything really bad, they argue, he would have told the FBI agents doing Kushner’s background check. One legal expert told the New York Times that Kushner could breath a sigh of relief. Perhaps. Perhaps not. Kusher, Trump’s son in law, had been working in the White House for a year under a temporary top secret clearance.

Trump’s ZTE talks have Congress wondering if he’s putting America first

It doesn’t happen often, but it happened this week: Republicans in Congress made it officially known that they disagree with their party leader, President Donald Trump, on an important issue of policy.On Thursday, the House Appropriations Committee voted unanimously to accept an amendment to the 2019 Commerce, Justice, and Science Appropriations Bill. That amendment, introduced by Democratic Maryland congressman Dutch Ruppersberger, forbids the Commerce Department from renegotiating the sanctions it enacted last month on Chinese telecom company ZTE.It’s a real reprimand of the president, who started sending tweets in support of the company on Sunday.

AI

Does Facebook want news ratings to fail?

Facebook has had a great ride, but they are now hitting limits. At least in the U.S., we can’t spend much more time than we do on social media, and Facebook can’t gain a much larger fraction of that time. So instead of seeking new vistas here, Facebook is probably now turning their attention to how to lock in their current advantage.And one classic strategy, widely known among economic and business experts, is “regulatory capture.” Get your industry regulated in a way that puts new smaller competitors at a disadvantage.

The perfect recipe for a Trump meltdown

President Trump has invited Russian president Vladimir Putin to the White House. This news is rocking Washington, but it shouldn’t really come as a surprise, at least no more than Trump’s willingness to meet with the portly pariah of Pyongyang. I have long suspected that Trump would like nothing more than to hold a state dinner for Putin. Trump’s move has temporarily managed to displace his budding tariff war with China from the headlines, but it is of a piece with his embrace of what might be called his inner Trump. Recall that at the July 2017 Republican Convention in Cleveland, Trump declared that “I alone can fix it.” Now he is giving it a go. But what, exactly, is he fixing? When it comes to trade, Trump is manufacturing an artificial crisis.

Are you a winner or a loser in Trump’s trade war?

China’s imposition today of tariffs on 128 imports from the US was inevitable – and is no doubt exactly the reaction that Donald Trump wants, giving him the excuse to announce yet more tariffs in addition to those on steel and aluminium imports which he has already imposed.  After all he did say, even before China announced any form of retaliation:  “trade wars are good.  It should easy for the US to win one”.  A trade war is what he wanted, and what he has got. But does he have any more of a strategy for his trade war than George W Bush had a plan for winning the peace in Iraq? There is an argument for saying that China will come off worse – on the basis that it exports far more to the US than travels in the other direction.

A trade war with China sounds terrifying – but the US is doing the right thing

Nobody likes the sound of trade war, and rightly so. China’s new retaliatory tariffs against US products feel like the beginning of something bad: an escalating tit-for-tat trade conflict between the world’s richest countries which could choke the global economy. But there are good reasons to think that, far from being another silly move by a hothead president, Trump’s right about trade with China and that, as he has with North Korea, he is grasping a dangerous nettle that other presidents dared not touch. It may be scary, but it needs to be done. And it’s not just necessary for America, but perhaps the rest of the world as well. China is deeply protectionist, and is rapidly becoming the most powerful country on earth.

Kudlow vs. Navarro? The Race To Replace ‘Globalist Gary’

Cockburn has learned that Lawrence Kudlow, the CNBC star, former Reagan official and financier, is a major candidate to replace Gary Cohn as Donald Trump’s top economic advisor, according to a source familiar with the matter.Other candidates include the man who forced Cohn’s departure: the tariff-loving Peter Navarro.Also in contention are Mick Mulvaney, the former South Carolina Congressman who is currently holding down not one, but two jobs for Trump, Andy Puzder, who was once nominated, but then withdrawn for Labor Secretary, and little-known Cohn subordinate Sharira Knight.Navarro and Kudlow are the biggest names.

Why Trump’s ‘trade war’ makes strategic sense

Has Donald Trump sparked off a trade war? His plans for a 25 percent tariff on steel imports and 10 percent tariff on aluminum have shocked friend and foe alike. China is outraged; so are Canada, Japan, and South Korea—allies that in fact export more steel to the U.S. than China does. They stand to be hurt worst if they aren’t granted exemptions or cut special deals by the president. Trump accuses the Chinese of 'dumping' steel into the American market, while the legal grounds for his new tariffs rest in the idea that strategically critical manufacturing is endangered by a diminished U.S. metals industry.

1,2,3,4 — Trump declares a trade war

‘Whatever complicates the world more — I do,’ Donald Trump once said. As President, that still seems to be his mantra. Everybody knows that he feels America has been ripped off for decades when it comes to global trade — and that he intends address imbalances that hurt his country wherever he can. But his abrupt decision to announce huge tariffs on steel and aluminium has sent shockwaves across the world. It has thrown global markets into a panic. It has caused division in his White House and put him at odds with his party establishment, which is ideologically committed to free trade and terrified of protectionism. It is vintage Trump, in other words. The great disruptor strikes again. So what is he doing?