‘Two nations; between whom there is no intercourse and no sympathy; who are as ignorant of each other’s habits, thoughts, and feelings, as if they were dwellers in different zones.’ Disraeli’s words from 1845 are relevant today when considering the tale of election night 2026. For London has voted very differently to the rest of England, with Reform keen to distinguish between results which include the capital and those that exclude it. A teal tide has swept the country, but much of London remains resistant: a reflection of demographics, social factors and established voting patterns.
That is good news for Kemi Badenoch and the Conservatives, who have long signalled that London would be where they were focusing much of their efforts in this election campaign. As I wrote back in March, Westminster and Wandsworth have long been viewed as favourable terrain for ‘good news stories’. In 1990, Ken Baker, Margaret Thatcher’s chairman, pointed to these two ‘flagship’ councils as a way of spinning defeats caused by voters’ hatred of the poll tax. Today a similar exercise is going on, with Tory strategists pointing to results in the capital as proof of Badenoch’s success as leader.
A teal tide has swept much of the country but London remains resistent
In Wandsworth, they ensured Labour lost control; in Westminster, they took back power, winning 32 of the 54 seats. Alan Mendoza, a foreign affairs advisor to Nigel Farage, lost his seat, while Damien Moore, an ex-Tory MP who defected, was unsuccessful as well. In Bexley, the Tories pulled off an impressive win, defeating Reform in a tight race to keep control of the council. Their victories will give Tory high command something to cheer about on a challenging night: as of 9:30 a.m, Wandsworth, Westminster and Bexley were the only three subjects on which CCHQ had sent out a press release. We can expect to see Badenoch and her shadow cabinet speaking much about these results in the days ahead.
Results from the outer areas of the capital are still coming in and as one senior Reform source notes: ‘London can’t win you a majority.’ But it can offer models, leaders and ideas for the rest of the country. For too long, the Tories have relied on an ever-diminishing pool of big figures and veterans in the capital, a result of ten years of Labour gains. Now, there are signs that future prospects are coming through the ranks – the likes of Tom Pridham in Wandsworth, Elliot Keck in Westminster and Max Austin in Merton.
Kemi Badenoch has set out the beginnings of an offer for professional thirty-somethings sick of high taxes, with her stamp duty cut and student loan relief offer. Expect to see some of those elected last night championing much of this agenda going forward.
Comments