Now that the Democrats have secured majorities in the House and Senate, what will they do? “I heard they submitted articles of impeachment this morning!” said one gentleman to his cellphone as I passed him near Columbus Circle. I didn’t recognize him but the odds are pretty good that he spoke with the full authority of the Party. After all, impeaching Donald Trump was the mandate of the millions of voters who turned out on Tuesday for the sole purpose of freeing the nation from this would-be king.
On the other hand, a lot of those voters took the time to explain to pollsters and journalists that their top issue was the cost of living in the United States, rephased as “affordability,” or simply “the economy.” But plainly what they meant was, “Impeach the creep and bring all his minions to justice too.” And while you are at it, “Arrest Elon Musk and confiscate all his wealth.”
And in short order, the “cost of living” will decline from insufferable to agreeable. A Starbucks cappuccino currently retailing at $4.85, will be repriced at 98 cents. The current 30-year fixed mortgage rate tops 7 percent, but soon it will be 2.5 percent. The average apartment rental in Brooklyn today ranges from $3,119 to $4,231. But in a trice, spacious two-bedrooms with parks views will set you back only $2,000 per month.
Well, no. Congress can’t make any of that happen. It can, however, treat Americans to two years of non-stop investigations and impeachments, and it is pretty certain that it will devote a large portion of its time to doing just that.
The Democrats are inhaling deeply the heady vapors of victory, and are likely to make some unwise decisions
The Democrats, of course, have many other things in mind as well. They will like to find ways to impede Trump’s war with Iran and reverse his tariffs. There is no obvious legislative path to do either, which suggests they will entertain their base with “hearings” on these topics that accomplish nothing but will be met with huzzahs at the New York Times.
The Democrats might try their hand at forcing changes to Medicaid and nutritional assistance. The Republican majority of the last Congress pushed through major changes in these programs over the united opposition of the Democrats. This would be a hard but substantive use of their new-found power, which is a reason why they probably won’t pursue it. Wrestling back some of Trump’s tax cuts that benefitted high-income households would likewise earn praise from social-justice advocates, but would have virtually no effect on the average voter.
More tempting will be a policy of subpoenaing everyone in Trump’s inner, and then outer circles, forcing them to spend time and money to endure Congressional show business.
The scent of victory is intoxicating. The odor of defeat is demoralizing. Having lived with the latter for several years, the Democrats are inhaling deeply the heady vapors of victory, and are likely to make some unwise decisions.
I see seven areas where the new Democratic majority is likely to squander its advantage. The first is DEI – diversity, equity, and inclusion – which may be the most important issue for the nation’s race-based bureaucratic elite. Trump’s executive orders outlawing DEI hiring policies and racial preferences have infuriated this portion of the left’s nomenclature. Many have lost their jobs or have been forced to disguise their lawlessness. They want a restoration of their power. Congress can’t really deliver that but it can spend a lot of sound and fury on it.
Second, enforcement of the nation’s borders and the arrests and deportation of illegal immigrants rankles the mainstream Democratic base and a portion of the Wall Street wing of the Republicans. Border security and expulsion of illegals, however, is enormously popular with most Americans and it is hard to see that the Democrats will gain much by scratching their itch to do something. ICE is not the enemy to most Americans, though it is reviled by the liberal activists.
Third, and in the same vein, is the Democrats’ inclination to “defund the police,” or at least cut them off at the knees. Our murder rate is now the lowest recorded in the nation’s history and the streets are generally safe, at least in areas where the illegal population is thin. Restoring violence and crime to cities and towns ought to be a non-starter for the Democrats, but then again, they are thinking of their base, i.e. voters who are convinced that every arrest is an act of racial oppression and every conviction is at root an injustice. Ordinary Americans think no such thing.
Fourth, Democrats will be tempted to go to war with data centers. It is true that most Americans don’t want have one planted next door, but it is equally true that Americans want the economic gains that come from embracing the new AI-based industrial revolution. What we need is a careful balance of the concern over unsightly buildings and the need for new infrastructure. Democrats could win on this one, provided they avoid the easy path of demonizing the data centers. Any bets?
Fifth, Democrats will be tempted to re-engage the debate over how to help Ukraine in its war with Russia, and what role our European allies should play. All I can say here is that Congress is ill-equipped to play a constructive role in shaping US foreign policy. When either party tries, the results are seldom helpful, but the pressure from liberal voters to increase assistance to Ukraine will not go completely unanswered by this Congress.
Sixth, the Democrats will be tempted to indulge their anti-Semitic wing and their Hamas sympathizers. They must surely recognize that this is perilous ground for a political party that still wants the favor of the general American public, but the recent election shows a path towards giving the Jew haters some of what they want. The likeliest approaches would be cut support for Israel and ban public purchase of Israeli goods.
Seventh, the Democrats will almost certainly continue their fixation on “gender affirming care” for minors. It would be hard to find a less popular issue with American voters, but those who favor such “care” support it with impassioned devotion. I expect the Democrats will throw them a bone in the form some bill, which Trump will duly veto.
I can think of other matters that might snare the Democrats into wasting their current advantages. Climate change comes to mind, though it was virtually absent from the campaigns. In any case, intoxicated with victory, the Democrats will want to do everything to please the people who put them in office. A few gestures in that direction might suffice to pay that debt, but any more than that will result in the next two years teaching the country that this is a party that can’t be trusted to govern wisely.
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