It is a mark of Nigel Farage’s position on the nation’s consciousness that he has succeeded in pushing the judgement in the Prince Harry vs Associated Newspaper’s legal case – an absolute cataclysm for Harry which on any other day would dominate the airwaves and has huge implications for the future of royalty – into second place on the news. Did he deliberately choose to go head to head with Mr Justice Nicklin in order to test his power and influence over national life? If he did, he has won hands-down.
Farage has taken a huge risk in resigning his Clacton seat and fighting to regain it in a by-election on an ‘us vs the establishment’ ticket. Yet there will be an enormous prize if he wins. Every time he appears in the news over the next few weeks as the contest takes place, his determination to seek a fresh political mandate will contrast with the actions of another politician who seems determined to chicken out of doing the same: Andy Burnham. The presumptive prime minister took a big risk of his own, of course, in fighting a by-election in Makerfield. Had he lost, he would have slipped away into provincial obscurity. But if, as looks likely, he refuses calls for a general election, that will be put to one side. Rather, he will look scared of the people. He will be promising a sharp change and a bright new future – why would he topple a prime minister just to follow his manifesto? – but will be scorning the electorate by denying them judgement.
Perhaps this is Farage’s game: to try to shame Burnham into an early general election while Reform is still riding high in the polls (in spite of disappointing results in recent by-elections). Come September, there will be huge pressure on Burnham to call an election, and everything he does will be compromised if he fails to do so. From his point of view, he will be looking at that enormous majority won by the PM he has displaced and contemplating the likely result of a general election. Even in the best-possible scenario he will be nursing a tiny majority. More likely, he will find himself in charge of a minority government, a ragged coalition or out of power before he has had a chance to change the furniture in No. 10.
But what are the chances of Farage pulling off an emphatic victory in Clacton? The anti-Farage vote will of course coalesce like never before, but tactical voting can only achieve so much given that in 2024 left wing parties were not even at the races in the Essex constituency. Farage won a majority of 8,405, with a 46 per cent share of the vote. Second were the Conservatives on 28 per cent. Labour was a miserable third on 16 per cent, in spite of this being a working class seat with one of the most deprived wards in the country: the jerry-built Clacton suburb of Jaywick.
Farage and his team have presumably taken soundings and are confident that their by-election disappointments elsewhere will not be repeated here. In championing the cause of wealthy politicians at the podium today, Farage has more or less resigned as a man of the people. But he will be counting on his native charisma to convince him that he is, nevertheless, their effective champion. I wouldn’t bet against him pulling it off.
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