A cardinal error in politics is hating your opponents so much you cannot understand them. If you know no one who supports Reform or the Greens, you have a limited social circle. If you cannot conceive of a reasonable person who might do so, you have a limited political imagination. A useful reminder comes in the form of a new poll from Ipsos that suggests the Greens will be the main opposition party in the Scottish Parliament after May’s devolved elections. Cue much horror and disbelief from the party’s detractors.
Incidentally, I am one of those detractors, and I seldom miss an opportunity to point out in print that the Greens are a bunch of keffiyeh-clad, pronoun-peddling, cosplay communists, their revolutionary zeal sharpened on the mean streets of Newton Mearns and their political consciousness honed in the two-bedroom flat in Porty that their granny bought for them. The disdain is mutual, as the party’s leadership has made clear. But I never let emotions get in the way of numbers and the numbers look good for the Greens, and have for some months now.
In December, the consensus was that, with the SNP all but guaranteed to win a fifth consecutive term in government, the key battle was the struggle for second place between Reform and Labour. I wrote a column for the Scottish Daily Mail predicting that the real story would be the Greens. Based on polling and demographic trends, I proposed that the Greens stood ‘a good chance of picking up a considerable number of seats’ and forecast they ‘would return the largest number of Green MSPs ever seen’. At the time, polling put them in fourth place behind Reform, and my prediction met with incredulity of the none-of-my-friends-vote-for-them variety.
The latest poll puts the Greens neck-and-neck with Reform on the regional list ballot, the more proportional slate from which the party sources all of its MSPs. A projection by STV News, which commissioned the poll, translates this to 17 Green MSPs, two more than Reform, and with the SNP just shy of an overall majority on 63. There is still a month to go and the Greens, specifically their more radical candidates, are at last coming under media scrutiny. Reform’s Scottish leader Malcolm Offord proved a dud as soon as the spotlight hit him, and the Greens might see their own numbers soften if the public decides they’re a bit too kooky.
But as things stand today, they are in an enviable position, poised either to return to government as the junior (though, on these numbers, much less junior) partner in a coalition government, or to take up the mantle of opposition to a minority SNP administration or perhaps a coalition with the Liberal Democrats. The power to make policy or the power to shape Scottish politics in a more leftwards direction. The former is obviously preferable for them, but the latter is no slouch as consolation prizes go.
Everything the Scottish Greens’ opponents say about them is true. They are a mad gaggle of cranks and extremists. Those opponents might wish to pause and consider why, given the choice between them and the Greens, a growing share of the electorate prefers the cranks. While you’re busy hating them, they’re busy beating you.
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