The battle for South Thanet — can Nigel Farage win?

Isle of Thanet, Kent

‘Are you having me on?’ a lady shouts from inside her bungalow. ‘I’m going back in the bath.’ As with many residents of Ramsgate, this voter, who is wearing nothing but a towel, can not believe Nigel Farage is on her doorstep. The Ukip leader belts out his hearty laugh as her husband admits the pair will be voting Ukip — another tick on the clipboard. Farage’s cabal of sign carriers and bodyguards shuffle towards the next house before we are interrupted by a group of goths keen for a selfie. They appear too young to vote but Farage happily obliges. Has he got a chance of winning here? In three hours of traipsing around doorsteps of South Thanet, before ending up in the pub, there were no negative reactions to Farage. The press seem to think he’s in danger — as Ukip’s vote has been squeezed nationally, the talk of Farage’s career coming to a sudden end on May 7 has ramped up. But when the party was riding high in the polls last year, it was assumed that Farage would stroll to victory. The polls have consistently shown that his chosen seat is a tight race between the Conservatives and Ukip, with Labour coming in close behind.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FuI-5l-M-tw

Farage thinks he can win

Farage remains typically buoyant. ‘I don’t want to appear to be over-confident, but I think we’re going to win’, Farage told me. But does he have any regrets about choosing to stand here, or promising to resign as party leader if he fails? ‘Certainly not — it’s the right thing to do,’ he said. ‘You know, this is my Becher’s Brook. There’s a fence there: I’ve got to clear it. If I don’t clear it, you know, then, life will change.’ But he is not leaving it to chance. With three weeks till polling day, Farage has duly been knuckling down for old-fashioned campaigning, of the sort Ed Miliband and David Cameron haven’t had to do in years. He is spending long evenings knocking on doors to persuade voters he will make South Thanet heard. On top of this, Farage has hosted 21 public meetings this year, addressing thousands of undecided voters. His campaign hopes to bring out the ‘soft kipper’ vote: those who are nervous about supporting Ukip and may have slipped under the polling radar. Whether these voters turn out will be key as to whether Farage wins. For the final three weeks of the campaign, Ukip is duly focusing on their get out the vote operation.

The Ukip-lite Tory

On the same day I joined Farage on the campaign trail, the Conservative candidate Craig Mackinlay was pleading with voters to come back to the fold a few miles away. In many ways, he is a softer, more acceptable version of Farage. He drives a Land Rover Defender and took to the stump in a Barbour jacket and chinos. He was even briefly the leader of Ukip and stood as a kipper in the 2001 and 2005 general elections. Even though he is now a confirmed Tory, Mackinlay’s views are quite purple. He tells me if there was a referendum on the EU as it stands ‘very clearly I’d be voting ‘out’.’ On immigration, he says the Conservatives have been ‘very tough on non-EU migration’ and he remains ‘very hopeful’ that these numbers will come down.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4glWZ5FLD2I

So if his policies and personality are a pale ale version of Farage, why would voters chose him over the full strength version? Mackinlay said the choice for South Thanet is ‘do they want a proper, local MP committed to them or do they want a part-timer?’ On the doorstep, Mackinlay attempted to convince voters with charm that he is the only option to keep Ed Miliband out of No.10. The first doorstep I visited with him was answered by John, a life-long Conservative who is backing Farage. ‘I love him and think he’s wonderful,’ he says. Mackinlay said ‘I need you back because I want to be your local MP’ and goes on to explain why Farage won’t get in. ‘I’ll tell you that because the polls say he’s not going to, he’s suffering all over the country and I’ve knocked on 20,000 doors so I know what people are thinking and they’re not thinking Ukip’. John was unconvinced but took a leaflet anyway. Three polls have been conducted in the seat — all suggest that a good chunk of the South Thanet electorate is thinking Ukip. According to Lord Ashcroft’s survey in November last year, the Conservatives were on 33 per cent compared to 32 for Ukip. Survation said in February that Ukip were eleven points ahead while ComRes reported in March that the Tories were on 31 per cent and Ukip on 30. Aside from the Survation poll, these results are within the margin of error and all sides realise the stakes are high. The Tories have brought in Henry Macrory, who was head of press at Conservative HQ during the last election, to handle communications for the Mackinley campaign. Meanwhile, Ukip has been piling in activists, billboards, strategists and data collection to run their most sophisticated campaign to date. [datawrapper chart=”http://static.spectator.co.uk/D4KiP/index.html”]

What of Labour?

South Thanet remains a three way and Labour remain confident of putting in a good showing. The party’s candidate is Will Scobie, a young councillor who is making his first effort to become an MP. Helped on by the ‘Stop Farage’ campaign, backed by the trade unions and the likes of Guardian columnist Owen Jones, his campaign is designed to pick up the anti-Farage vote. Last week, Scobie sent out thousands of letters to Thanet residents comparing Ukip to the BNP — something he denies constitutes negative campaigning. In an interview, Scobie is keen to point out that he is the ‘only local candidate’ and thinks the Tories’ mistake was not to choose a ‘Laura Sandys-type One Nation Tory’. ‘Links to an area for me is living here, working here, bringing up a family here, actually having proper connections,’ he says. ‘Mr Farage does none of those things. He’s only come to Thanet when he wants to get elected and it’s the same with Craig Mackinlay and for me that is cynical.’ Does he think he can win? ‘From what we’re seeing on the doorstep, all three parties are neck and neck,’ he says. ‘The difference is going to be who can get their supporters out on the day and who can build a narrative that can bring over those swing voters’.

Who is going to win?

Those on Farage’s campaign acknowledge that it’s a tight race. All of the bookies say he’s the favourite to win — Ladbrokes has Ukip on 4/6 to win and the Conservative on 5/2. South Thanet is not the most Ukip friendly seat in the area — kippers point out that North Thanet or Thurrock would have been an easier seat to win. But Farage stood in South Thanet ten years ago, garnering just five per cent of the vote, and he believes that this small base is a better starting point than nothing at all. Campaign insiders point out that the visibility of Farage trumps Labour or the Tories. ‘Just look at how many Ukip posters there are, why is no one promoting Mackinley or Scobie?’ says one Ukip insider. Having spent time on the doorstep with Farage, it’s hard to see how the other candidates can match his level of celebrity. Mackinlay is a very good Tory PPC but he is not one of the most recognisable politicians on the country. But there will be plenty of people who will be horrified at the thought of Farage — and how they vote will decide the result. The Tory and Ukip campaigns are keen to say it’s a two horse race and only Mackinley or Farage will be the next MP. The Tories in particular are keen to push this strategy: the ‘anyone but Farage’ vote rally could behind Mackinley and keep Farage out. Or it could split with Scobie and Farage will slip in. There is more to South Thanet than just Farage; the result here will say much about the outcome of this election. If the Tories can return the seat, it will show they have discovered how to beat Ukip. If Labour can put in a good showing, it will prove they can remain competitive in three-way marginal. Or it will show that the Ukip bandwagon hasn’t yet ground to a halt.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jQMCdfhHsdE