The most important thing about Robert Jenrick’s sacking isn’t Robert Jenrick. It’s that it is yet another demonstration of Kemi Badenoch’s increasing stature as Tory leader.
The Tory leader was presented with a gift – a sacking that was both necessary, obvious and politically useful to her, further cementing her standing as leader
For most of her first year – Badenoch Mark I, as it were – the mood music was all about when she would be deposed. The assumption was that her replacement would be Jenrick. That changed pretty much overnight at last year’s Tory conference, when Badenoch Mark II emerged. She made a stomper of a speech that was clear and convincing and told a story about her party, while Jenrick’s speech was a damp squib. That coincided with Badenoch’s PMQs performances moving from halting to dominant. They are now a weekly opportunity for her to display her strength.
Under Badenoch Mark I, the last thing Jenrick would have been thinking about was defecting to Reform. His eyes were clearly on replacing her as leader.
Badenoch Mark II meant that wasn’t going to happen. Jenrick has a knack for polished social media videos but that’s about it. And his transformation from Tory centrist to supposed champion of the right in the run-up to the last election and the subsequent leadership contest was a bit too obviously careerist. That was one of the reasons Badenoch beat him when they stood against each other. She was clearly more authentic.
With his Tory ambitions so diminished, it seems he has seen more chance of advancement in Reform. Presented with what Badenoch calls ‘clear, irrefutable evidence’ that Jenrick was plotting to defect, the Tory leader was presented with a gift – a sacking that was both necessary, obvious and politically useful to her, further cementing her standing as leader.
As it happens, a few minutes after Nadhim Zahawi defected earlier this week I received a text from a very senior Reform member who predicted that, rather than defect, Jenrick would simply walk away from politics. ‘There is no appetite for him in Reform beyond a potential junior cabinet level position, which will not attract him.’ Let’s see…
The golfer Gary Player used to say that it was a strange coincidence that the more he practised, the luckier he got. There’s a parallel there with Kemi Badenoch. It might sound ridiculous, given that she is leading a diminished party that is struggling to regain support. But Kemi Badenoch is turning out to be a lucky leader of the Conservative party. Lucky, in the sense that the longer she is in the job, the better she gets at it – and the luckier she is with her enemies.
Listen to James Heale and Tim Shipman discuss Jenrick’s sacking on Coffee House Shots:
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