The Republicans walking 2024 tightropes
One of the big questions hanging over Ron DeSantis’s 2024 bid is how he will position himself on foreign policy. A governor with the broad backing of conservatives on a range of domestic issues, DeSantis has so far been reluctant to wade into geopolitics, on which his party is more divided. But in an appearance on Fox and Friends this week — conducted during a swing through the New York, Chicago and Philadelphia — DeSantis was asked about Joe Biden’s trip to Ukraine.
In response, he chose to downplay Russia’s threat to Europe, dismissing its military as “third rate” and criticizing what he called Biden’s “blank-check policy” towards Ukraine. “He’s very concerned about those borders halfway around the world. He’s not done anything to secure our own border here at home,” DeSantis added. He also said he thought Russia was “not on the same level as China” when it comes to which constitutes a more serious threat to America.
Does this amount to going “full America First” as some, like New York’s Jonathan Chait, have claimed? I don’t think so. DeSantis’s comments are best understood as a careful hedge: he was nonspecific and reluctant to tackle the issue head on, but decidedly less hawkish on Ukraine than the median Republican senator; he gave more skeptical conservative voters something to cheer while preserving plenty of wiggle room for the future; and he made clear the importance of prioritizing China — a point of GOP consensus. They were, in other words, the remarks of a presidential candidate not quite ready to come off the fence on foreign policy. His comments are a sign of the ways in which the Republican Party has changed in recent years, but they aren’t nearly enough to indicate exactly what foreign policy DeSantis will settle on during the campaign.
A few days later, another 2024 contender was on another breakfast news show answering questions about another controversial issue over which there has been some red-on-red action. This time it was Mike Pence on CNBC’s Squawk Box grabbing the third rail of entitlement spending. Asked about the debt fight, Pence broke with Kevin McCarthy and the overwhelming majority of elected Republicans to say that he thought Social Security and Medicare should be “on the table in the long term.” He said that “while I respect the speaker’s commitment to take Social Security and Medicare off the table for the debt ceiling negotiations, we’ve got to put them on the table in the long-term because right now, President Biden’s is insolvency.”
The leadership of Pence’s party has been desperate not to give Democrats something that can be used to claim that Republicans are coming for Americans’ entitlements, but the former vice president offered a morsel on TV this morning. If DeSantis’s comments on Ukraine are an attempt to find the midpoint of GOP geopolitical thinking, Pence’s comments on Social Security are an attempt to find the midpoint between his own convictions and short-term political expediency.
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The politics of Ukraine are win-win for Biden
From TV studios to the world stage. Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin both delivered major speeches on the Ukraine war yesterday, and as Jacob Heilbrunn explains, the differences could hardly have been starker: “One is dwelling in his own dream palace, indulging fantasies about a return to superpower status while transforming his dismal fiefdom into a larger North Korea. The other is on a roll, creating a new grand alliance to prevent his foe from claiming suzerainty over Ukraine and engaging in further territorial predation.”
For now, the domestic politics of the war are a no-brainer for Biden. Support for Ukraine is a popular policy among American voters and Republican division on the issue gives the president’s stance an edge. As Jason Willick points out in an astute column, that Republican opposition also gives Biden more substantive wiggle room, allowing him to pair soaring rhetoric with a more circumspect and balanced approach. In the GOP-controlled House, Willick notes, Biden has the perfect excuse to throttle support for Ukraine. Things could get a lot tricker if things on the ground change, but for now, the administration has both maneuverability and popular support on a very difficult foreign policy question.
Tester run
Democrats will be breathing a sigh of relief today as Montana Senator Jon Tester has announced he plans to run for re-election next year. The potty-mouthed Montanan is, by some margin, his party’s best bet at holding on to a seat in an otherwise red state and today’s news makes a horrible 2024 map for Democrats marginally more tolerable.
What you should be reading today
Roger Kimball: Don Lemon gets away with a slap
Ben Domenech: Thunderdome 2024
Charles Lipson: Victimhood and mudslinging now define American politics
Brian Riedl, New York Times: Biden’s promises on Social Security and Medicare have no basis in reality
Matthew Kaminski, Politico: The West is avoiding the big question about Ukraine
Wall Street Journal: Putin buries nuclear arms control
Poll watch
President Biden job approval
Approve: 44.4 percent
Disapprove: 50.9 percent
Net approval: -6.5 (RCP average)
Direction of the country
Right direction: 33 percent
Wrong direction: 60 percent (Economist/YouGov)
