The left in France believe that Donald Trump’s mid-term mauling is an omen. The Greens, Socialists and the far-left La France insoumise are convinced that the age of ‘populism’ is over. Trump is finished and so too, they cheer, is Marine Le Pen’s dream of becoming president of the Republic next year.
In a tweet this week Marine Tondelier, the leader of the Greens, declared that Le Pen’s National Rally ‘is as fascist as Donald Trump’ and as ‘incapable of solving our problems’. His presidency should act as a warning to any voter in France foolish enough to think Le Pen is the solution to the country’s myriad woes.
Not so fast. A poll this week revealed that Le Pen is more popular than ever and will comfortably win the second round presidential run-off regardless of her opponent. She is now winning over demographics that were once fiercely resistant; for example, support among the over-65s is up to 32 per cent, an increase of 15 per cent on 2022.
If Le Pen is to succeed Macron, she must continue to win over middle-class centrists
She is even attracting embittered centrists, Millennial men and women who only a few years ago believed Emmanuel Macron was the Messiah. Such is the state of the country, economically and socially, that 19 per cent of Macron’s electors in 2022 are now ready to vote for his archenemy, Marine Le Pen.
This figure will keep rising as long as the violent street protests continue. More than half a million people demonstrated against the cost of living crisis on Thursday, and although most voiced their discontent peacefully, there was, as ever, a violent minority.
In Toulouse, youths burned down part of a school and in Paris there were angry confrontations between the police and bottle-throwing thugs. ‘These images are unbearable and shock the French people,’ tweeted Le Pen in response. ‘The rioters and vandals must be rendered incapable of destroying, and we will ensure that they are.’
Le Pen spent Thursday visiting the Euronaval trade fair in Paris, where global defence and maritime manufacturers were exhibiting their wares. She had plenty to say about her day on social media, all of it tailored to convey an image of a president-in-waiting.
If Le Pen is to succeed Macron, she must continue to win over middle-class centrists. This strategy of ‘de-demonisation’, of making her and her party respectable, explains why she has kept her distance from Trump since he won back the White House.
She congratulated him on his victory in 2024 and added that she hoped it would lead to ‘the pursuit of constructive dialogue and cooperation on the international stage’. In contrast, the likes of Geert Wilders, Eric Zemmour and Giorgia Meloni were beside themselves with joy. The Italian PM was invited to the inauguration and for a while she was Trump’s darling; the love-in didn’t last long and Meloni admitted recently that she ‘thought it would be easier with Trump’.
Le Pen tried the Meloni approach in 2016 when she hitched herself to both Trump and Brexit. Her reaction to Britain’s vote to leave the EU was one of unbridled joy. She called it a ‘victory for freedom’ and demanded that France be given a similar vote.
Le Pen no longer mentions ‘Frexit’. It is not a vote winner, just as she has come to understand that cosying up to Trump is a turn off for the French bourgeoisie.
According to a report in Politico, Nigel Farage has been trying to wangle a meeting with Le Pen for weeks but she is keeping him at arm’s length. Farage is persistent but National Rally insiders claim that there is ‘no urgency in refocusing media attention on relations with Reform’.
It’s not that Farage is too far-right for her taste – as is the case with Germany’s AfD – but rather the fact that Farage is known as ‘Monsieur Brexit’ in France. Being photographed in the same room as Farage will invariably result in a slew of ‘Frexit’ stories, guaranteed to spook undecided centrists.
Le Pen may also still be sulking with Farage after he criticised her party’s economic policies in 2024. Describing them as a ‘disaster’, he quipped that Le Pen’s party would be ‘even worse for the economy than the current lot’.
Could anyone be worse than Macron? Most French don’t think so. That’s another factor in Le Pen’s popularity; they’ve tried every other party so why not hers? Trump may be on his last legs but there’s plenty of life still in Le Pen.
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