It was a little before 3 a.m that Nigel Farage sauntered in to the spin room at Millbank Tower, where an overnight election party was being hosted for journalists. Reform’s leader reeled off a list of positive areas before declaring: ‘This for me was our Becher’s Brook. If we cleared Becher’s Brook and landed well, we would go on and win the Grand National. And what is very clear is our voters will stick with us, now, all the way through.’
That is a microcosm of the overall election night: Labour trounced, Reform triumphant, with the Tories out the picture across swathes of Britain
You can see why Farage is feeling optimistic. In Hartlepool, where voters flew a blimp of Boris Johnson just five years ago, now all twelve councillors are Reform. The Tories have none, with one of the Labour losers being the wife of the MP, Jonathan Brash, who has called on Keir Starmer to go.
That is a microcosm of the overall election night: Labour trounced, Reform triumphant, with the Tories out the picture across swathes of Britain. With his focus on the ‘battle for the north’, Farage is working to rebuild the coalition which delivered Boris Johnson victory in 2019. One key aspect are Labour heartlands which voted Leave in 2016. Sir John Curtice suggests that Reform’s support is running at 40 per cent in wards where 60 per cent voted for Brexit. Reform made early gains across Wigan, Bolton, Salford and Halton, including a clean sweep of six of six in Runcorn, which Farage’s party only just squeaked by six votes last year. By 5:30 a.m, Reform had won a third of all seats and were on 35 per cent of the vote. These numbers will change, as the less favourable London results come in. But it is a positive start that gives Farage an early boost in the battle of the narratives.
For Labour, tonight looks likely to be as bad as some around Keir Starmer had feared. The party has lost around a half of the seats that they have been trying to retain. In Hartlepool, Tameside, Redditch and Tamworth Labour have lost control of the council: in Wigan, represented in parliament by Lisa Nandy, the culture secretary, the party lost 20 seats. This is leading to the predictable drumbeat of criticisms from defeated and disgruntled Labour figures. Already, Darren Hale, the group leader in Hull, has called on the Prime Minister to go: ‘I wish Sir Keir Starmer no ill, but I think ultimately, he’s not the right man for the job to take us to the next level.’ Expect more such calls over the next 48 hours as Labour comes to terms with defeats in areas of high symbolism that they did not lose, even under Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership.
In England, the smaller parties are, broadly, having more good results than bad. The Liberal Democrats have gained Stockport and Portsmouth, while now holding every single council seat in Richmond-upon-Thames. However, they lost control of Hull – a blow to Ed Davey’s efforts to show that his party are not merely the political wing of disaffected prosperous southerners.
The Greens have seen their vote share increase since 2022, but have struggled to turn that into significant seat gains – a classic consequence of First Past the Post. More cheering news for Zack Polanski is likely to come in London later today when the likes of Hackney and Haringey are set to declare.
The Conservatives meanwhile are having a mixed night. In the battle for Essex, there are areas where they have had some success in stemming the teal tide. They managed to win all eleven seats on Harlow council – despite a strong push from Reform. Bexley, in outer London, has proved more willing to stick with Kemi Badenoch than some had previously predicted. But her party is set for scores of losses elsewhere, with Norfolk and Suffolk likely to be key Tory/Reform battlegrounds. Tonight is very much a night for the Ukip long-marchers. Places such as Thurrock and Southend which resisted Farage’s charms a decade ago now look set to turn their back on the Tories, amid a sustained campaign of mail-outs and targeted adverts by Reform HQ.
As the results flooded in at Millbank Tower this morning, I asked one veteran of Nigel Farage’s party just how it felt to taste success in places where he has suffered so many disappointments. He answered that it was like ‘one of the arcade machines with the 2p slots’ – after accumulating enough coins, now the balance had tipped and started to yield results. For some sceptics in Westminster, the penny ought to be dropping this morning. Nigel Farage has built a formidable campaign machine that has won the local elections two years running. Once might be dismissed as a fluke; twice shows how serious they are. Places that have never voted Farage are turning teal and the electoral map of Britain is being redrawn as a result.
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