When Donald Trump announced yesterday that Vladimir Putin had agreed to stop bombing Ukrainian cities for a week, officials in Kyiv were taken aback. Volodymyr Zelensky said there were no direct agreements between Ukraine and Russia to suspend air strikes on critical infrastructure despite the issue being discussed at last week’s peace talks in Abu Dhabi. The Ukrainian President had no idea when this ceasefire was supposed to begin or end – and he wasn’t the only one. The Kremlin, it quickly turned out, didn’t have any idea either.
The first to start the rumours were outraged pro-Kremlin military bloggers, who began reporting that Moscow had ordered its forces not to strike Ukraine’s energy infrastructure yesterday morning. By the evening, Trump said he had personally called Putin and asked him not to fire on Kyiv and other cities for one week as Ukrainians endure an ‘extraordinarily cold, record-setting… pile of bad weather’. In typical fawning style, the US President added: ‘He agreed to do that. It was very nice.’
The Kremlin declined to comment until this morning after checking notes with Putin. His spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed that Trump had requested Moscow refrain from strikes on Kyiv until 1 February ‘to create favourable conditions for negotiations’. Peskov refused to clarify whether the agreement was to halt all strikes or only those targeting energy infrastructure.
That suggests the ‘week-long’ energy truce was supposed to start on Monday – in which case Russia has already violated it several times. On Tuesday, Russia launched 165 drones at cities across Ukraine – 24 of which reached their targets. Odesa was hit hardest: three people were killed, dozens injured and almost 50 apartment blocks damaged. DTEK, Ukraine’s largest private energy firm, said one of its power facilities was also struck, causing ‘colossal’ destruction. On Wednesday, another attack on Kyiv left more than half a million residents without electricity in sub-zero temperatures.
In effect, the US President appears to have secured little more than a three-day pause in Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Ceasefire or no ceasefire, several days often pass between attacks anyway so Moscow’s forces can refuel aircraft and top up missile and drone supplies. Trump’s ‘achievement’ is therefore an illusion. However humanitarian his intentions, the deal he apparently struck has helped Moscow more than Kyiv. Trump was rewarded with triumph and flattery; Russia with some breathing space.
After a relatively warmer week, overnight temperatures in Kyiv are forecast to plunge again to -23°C from Monday. Almost 400 high-rise buildings remain without heating – a figure that will only soar after the next inevitable strike on devastated energy infrastructure. Putin will continue to weaponise winter and terrorise Ukrainian civilians until spring, having proved once again that there is no ceasefire that Russia will not break. The difference this time is that the agreement was struck by Trump: the same ‘mastermind’ of the peace deal Ukraine is being pushed towards. For Ukrainians, it’s further confirmation – if any more were needed – that that deal may prove just as precarious and just as short-lived.
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