Can Marianne Williamson change anything?

The first question asked of any presidential bid is, “Can she win?” It’s not an unreasonable query, and in the case of Marianne Williamson, the spiritual guru, bestselling self-help author and failed 2020 Democratic primary contender, it’s one that is reasonably easy to answer. I could add some throat-clearing caveats and health warnings but instead I’ll just say it: Marianne Williamson will not be the next president of the United States.

But unsuccessful presidential bids can change history. And so, what, if anything, might Williamson’s ultra-long-shot, which she launched with a speech in a ballroom at Washington’s Union Station, achieve?

Williamson’s launch speech was light on the kooky talk of dark, psychic forces and the power of love that made her something of a cult hero four years ago. Instead, it was a straightforward challenge from the left, attacking Biden for failing to push for “genuine reform” and not passing an increase in the minimum wage. “The status quo will not disrupt itself; that’s our job,” said Williamson. Writing for The Spectator, Grace Curley speculates that Williamson “might be able to seize on one of President Biden’s major weaknesses: his incredible lack of empathy.”

Williamson making any kind of impact might seem far-fetched, but her entry means Biden will not go entirely unopposed in his bid for the Democratic nomination. For now, that fact is something the White House and the party establishment are choosing to ignore. The White House declined to comment on Williamson’s announcement, and the DNC has no plans to host debates. Williamson has been treated as nothing more than a minor irritation.

But in an environment where a majority of Democrats don’t want a visibly aging octogenarian incumbent to run again, minor irritations can lead to more serious complications. Williamson’s presence prolongs the conversation about whether Biden should bow out or not — a conversation the White House is keen to bring to as swift an end as possible. And if her campaign can show even the faintest signs of life, heavyweight Democrats might start to wonder if Biden might be even more vulnerable than they had thought. Progressive Democrats, in particular, might start to get ideas if her message of economic justice gets any purchase. And if she shows any kind of momentum, establishment Democrats will have to answer a series of uncomfortable questions about whether she and Biden should debate, whether the primary process is fair, and so on. (Already Williamson has accused the DNC of “rigging” the system.)

This may all seem far-fetched, and perhaps it is. But Team Biden doesn’t seem especially adept at demonstrating cool, calm self-confidence. Consider, for instance, Jill Biden’s answer to a question from CNN’s Arlette Saenz about mental competency tests for politicians over seventy-five, a proposal of Republican 2024 candidate Nikki Haley. “Ridiculous,” replied Biden. Saenz then asked if the president would take a mental competency test. “I mean, we haven’t even discussed,” replied the First Lady. “We would never even discuss something like that.”

Williamson’s candidacy will likely never be much more than an amusing political sideshow. But her long-shot challenge means a high-profile Democrat is touring the country explaining why she thinks Joe Biden is a bad option for her party and the country. “I believe he is an unwise offering and a weak choice for 2024,” she said this weekend. And, however far-fetched her candidacy, the polls suggest she has one big thing going for her: most Democrats agree.

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Biden’s hazy memory on civil rights

President Biden used the fifty-eighth anniversary of the Bloody Sunday march in Selma, Alabama to repeat an unsubstantiated claim that he was a civil rights activist.

Biden’s speech yesterday centered around the right to vote, which the president said “remains under assault” because the Supreme Court has “gutted the Voting Rights Act over the years” and states have passed “dozens, dozens of anti-voting laws fueled by the big lie” (that the 2020 election was stolen).

“I was a student up north in the civil rights movement,” Biden added. “I remember feeling how guilty I was, [that] I wasn’t here. How could we all be up there, and you going through what you went through?”

Biden has a rich and confusing history of claims about his involvement in the fight for racial equality. Claiming that he was a civil rights activist is a favorite tall tale. In 2020, the Washington Post awarded Biden two Pinnochios for his “shifting recollection on his civil rights activities.” Over the years, Biden has claimed he was “very engaged” in the civil rights movement, that he “participated in sit-ins to desegregate restaurants and movie houses” and that he was arrested for taking part in a civil rights protest.

During his 1987 presidential campaign, Biden said he was “very concerned about the civil rights movement,” but clarified, “I was not an activist. I worked at an all-black swimming pool in the east side of Wilmington, Delaware. I was involved in what they were thinking, in what they were feeling. But I was not out marching, I was not down in Selma. I was not anywhere else.”

Perhaps all Biden needed to jog his memory was some music. During a Black History Month event last month, Biden told a group of musical performers:

Y’all can sing, man. You know, I know most of those songs for a simple reason: As my buddy from Delaware can tell you, when you’re involved in the civil rights movement as a kid in high school — I used to go down to the Black church. I’d go to 7:30 mass; I’m a practicing Catholic. Then I’d go to 10 o’clock. And then we’d sit and plan what we’re going to do, in terms of deseg- — you think I’m joking; I’m not.

–Teresa Mull

China spends big on defense

China has announced its defense budget for 2023 will grow by 7.2 percent to about 1.55 trillion CNY, or $224 billion, as the country faces what it calls “external attempts to suppress and contain China.” The real number is estimated to be much higher, as China’s military expenditure is notoriously murky. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, 2021 government-reported defense spending was 1.36 trillion CNY, or $209 billion, while in reality it was closer to $293 billion. The International Institute for Strategic Studies estimate was a bit more conservative, at $270 billion. Trends indicate, then, that China’s 2023 budget is likely well above $300 billion.

While this is less than half what the United States spends in real terms, it is more complicated than that. The breakdown of the US defense budget in 2021 had Washington spending about 20 percent on procurement, while China typically spends closer to 40 percent on the same. Depending on what the true Chinese defense expenditure is, this could bring the numbers much closer on the equipment front. Even if the countries are not at spending parity, the equipment China needs to impose huge costs on the US in a conflict over Taiwan are relatively inexpensive, consisting mainly of anti-ship and anti-aircraft missiles.

None of this is likely to calm jitters in the West about China’s aggressive intentions. With the near-monthly assessments confirming that Beijing is still very much committed to taking Taiwan, the US is still not prepared for a fight. Washington will be under renewed pressure to maintain its steady defense spending increases to meet the threat despite economic headwinds at home.

–John Pietro

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Poll watch

President Biden job approval Approve 44 percent | Disapprove 51.8 percent | Net approval -7.8 (RCP average)

Which country do voters consider to be America’s greatest enemy today? China 50 percent | Russia 32 percent | North Korea 7 percent | Iran 2 percent (Gallup)