On Wednesday, the Prime Minister announced that the UK will send four additional Typhoon fighters to Qatar, an acknowledgement that Britain has not done enough since the US and Israeli strikes on Iran to support its partners in the region. Indeed, our Gulf allies, as Tim Shipman reported this week, are said to be ‘furious’ about Britain’s hesitant response, with ‘the Emiratis, Kuwaitis, and even the Canadians… all asking, “What the fuck are you doing? Whose side are you on?”’
As Iranian missiles hit the Palm Dubai, we even saw the disgusting moral spectacle of politicians on the left (I’m looking at you Ed Davey) gloating about expats who had the temerity to leave the UK tax regime. The message from both the government and many in the commentariat was clear: this is Trump’s war, and not our problem.
This is very much our war, and we have thrown away all our leverage
What these politicians forget is that the fate of Britain is intrinsically linked to the Gulf. This is very much our war, and we have thrown away all our leverage.
The Kingdoms of the Gulf were brought into the world by Britain. Yet our relationship with them is not just historic – London is the playground of the Gulf elite, while some 300,000 British nationals live in the region. It is Brits – not Americans nor continental Europeans – that form the core of the western expat community in the UAE.
Our economies are also deeply intertwined. British consultants fill the board rooms of Riyadh, Doha and Duba, while tens of billions flow into everything from real estate to the Premier League. And London is still the prime actor in insuring the tankers now stacking up around the straits of Hormuz. Even without the short-term spike to energy prices, the economic impact of a collapse of the Gulf economy would be felt in the pockets of every British citizen.
But our foreign policy – both now and in the past – has been to turn away. Last year’s Strategic Defence Review barely mentioned the Middle East. It was driven by the British academic Fiona Hill, a defence expert who has focused her career on Russia. Dr Hill is a talented academic, rising from a working-class background in the north to presidential advisor in the US, a trajectory worthy of a British Henry Kissinger. It is unfair to criticise her for her focus on Russia, much as it is unfair to criticise a hammer for viewing every problem as a nail. But her leadership should have been balanced by experts on the Middle East, Africa and East Asia. As a result, we now have a strategic defence policy which could just as easily have been designed for Poland, Estonia or Germany. Britain’s wider priorities have been ignored.
The reality in the Gulf reflects this. Britain had no warship in the region for the first time in half a century. The Type 45 destroyer with air defence capabilities which we have committed to send still sits in Portsmouth with visible scaffolding on the deck. The Prime Minister, a man terrified of international law, did not allow the US to use our air bases on Diego Garcia and Cyprus for strikes on Iran, alienating the Americans. Keir Starmer is a master at conference calls – he presses the speak button with all the portentousness of a man launching the nuclear deterrent. But his dithering has meant we are no longer at the top table as the US and Israel pursue the most consequential war in a generation. Meanwhile, our soft power in the Gulf, which is enormous, has been destroyed in a matter of days.
It is clear that Britain has just as much to lose from the war in the Gulf as it does in in Ukraine. At this moment of global peril, it is time to turn and change our strategy. Russia is a clear and present danger to our islands and Ukraine must be supported, but we have mispriced our strategy. While Britain’s intervention, especially in the early stages of the conflict, was vital in preventing the fall of Ukraine, it is unclear if it has really given us the political leverage that we hoped for in Europe. Britain has done the right thing in Ukraine, but both failed to gain a top seat at the European military table while neglecting our historic global relationships.
It is time for Britain to revitalise its commitment to the Gulf in the months and years ahead. We should not abandon our European allies, but recognise that our history and economy mean we have interests beyond the continent.
By committing to once again take on a share of the burden of defending the Gulf we can, perhaps, regain some relevance and influence in this region before it is too late. If we do not reorientate, to paraphrase Tennyson’s ‘The Charge of the Light Brigade’ – someone has blundered.
Jonathan Brown is Founder of CEO of the Centre for a Better Britain. He served in the FCO from 2003-2011 with a focus on the Middle East, including a posting to Kuwait. Since leaving government service he has worked for governments and business across the GCC.
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