Michael Auslin

Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine has paradoxically heightened China’s global reputation, if only because it has not yet invaded a weaker neighbour. Yet China remains a far greater threat over the long run than Russia. And recent disruptive behaviour by Xi Jinping should remind London, Washington and their allies that Beijing poses not merely a regional threat, but a global one. Though overlooked in the wake of Russia’s devastation of Ukraine, Beijing has flagrantly interfered in Britain’s national interests by proclaiming support for Argentina’s claims to the Falkland Islands. China’s timing was particularly provocative, given that 2022 marks the 40th anniversary of the Falklands war.

Four years ago, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping made pancakes together in Vladivostok while thousands of their military forces conducted joint exercises in Siberia. This month, as China hosted the Olympics, Putin and Xi announced that a ‘new era’ in international relations had begun, one in which the two great authoritarian powers of the 21st century will reshape the liberal international order established in 1945 and reaffirmed in 1991. Some call it Cold War II, yet the blossoming relationship between Moscow and Beijing may best be thought of as an alliance of disruptors.

Last week, the Trump administration warned the German government that if it uses 5G wireless technology built by China’s Huawei, Washington will curtail intelligence sharing with its Nato ally. American officials are concerned that Berlin’s willingness to host Chinese technology threatens Nato security, and will give cover to other countries considering letting Huawei into their telecommunications systems. Yet Washington’s blunt statement might also have been a shot across Britain’s bow. Far more than Germany, Britain is a key intelligence partner of the United States, the cornerstone of the so-called 'Five Eyes' community.

The Royal Navy and US Navy held joint exercises in the South China Sea last week, for the first time since China began building new military bases in those waters. The exercises sent a message to Beijing that it faces an evolving united front of nations committed to maintaining freedom of navigation in some of the world’s most vital waterways. The frigate HMS Argyll joined the USS McCampbell, a guided-missile destroyer, for nearly a week of drills and operations. This comes just a few months after HMS Albion conducted the Royal Navy’s first freedom of navigation operation last August near the contested Paracel Islands, drawing a sharp response from China.

After repeated denials, Chinese officials finally admitted last month that they have set up internment camps in the far-western province of Xinjiang, where up to one million ethnic Uighurs, almost all of whom are Muslim, are being held. Under China’s anti-terrorism law and ‘religious affairs regulation,’ the government in the Xinjiang Autonomous Region publicly introduced the 'Regulation on De-extremification.' What it describes is a new gulag, where re-education and the suppression of Uighur identity is its main goal. There are approximately 25 million Muslims in China today, but these new draconian laws in Xinjiang are aimed solely at the ethnic Uighurs, of which there are just over 11 million.

President Xi Jinping's second term was meant to come to an end in 2023. However, the news that the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee has moved to eliminate the constitution’s two-term limit for presidents suggests he plans on staying in power longer than this – and perhaps indefinitely.  The rest of the world will now have to figure out how best to deal with him. Xi is currently 64 years old, which means he could dominate Chinese politics until 2030. This would let him implement his ambitious 'Belt and Road Initiative', to link Eurasia through Chinese infrastructure and trade, and the 'Made In China 2025' plan, which aims to make China a manufacturing leader in advanced technologies like aviation, energy and IT.

Beijing is starting to worry that the rest of the world will steal its advanced technology. The Chinese military is calling for stronger protection of the country’s intellectual property, particularly in sensitive defence areas. Supercomputers, drones, rocket launchers and the like, were singled out as areas where 'generations' of Chinese research cannot be allowed to be put at risk. Give China credit where it’s due: not in its technology, but in its gall. China is the world’s largest or second-largest economy (depending on how you count) because of its size, its hard-working labor force, its focus on STEM education, its relentless government policy, etc, etc. But also because it cheats.