With the modern-day racehorse increasingly bred for speed, it is likely that several of tomorrow’s runners at Epsom in the Betfred Derby (4 p.m.) will not truly stay the race distance of a mile and a half. The fact that this year’s contest is going to be run with plenty of cut in the ground means that, unless there is an unusually slow pace, it will take a proper three-year-old staying colt to win this prestigious Grade 1 race.
After his 1-2-3 in the French Derby last weekend, Irish maestro Aidan O’Brien is the likeliest trainer to win tomorrow’s Classic with one of his four runners, but most realistically with either Benvenuto Cellini or Pierre Bonnard.
However, particularly with several bookmakers now paying four places in this 14-runner contest, I would rather be on two horses who look certain to relish this stamina test. The first is BAY OF BRILLIANCE, who at the start of the season was thought of by his trainer Ralph Beckett as a type for the St Leger Stakes (the fifth and final classic of the flat season run over a distance of two and a half furlongs further than the Derby).
My main fancy this weekend is in the Betfred ‘Dash’, a contest for 20 runners
We know Bay of Brilliance stays at least a mile and a half because he was a close second, beaten only a neck, to Maltese Cross in the William Hill Lingfield Derby Trial last month. Whereas that was Maltese Cross’s second run of the season, it was Bay of Brilliance’s seasonal debut and he should come on plenty for that prep run.
We also know Bay of Brilliance, who has only raced four times in his short career, will relish the likely ‘good to soft’ ground since he won on ‘soft’ at Goodwood and ‘good to soft’ at Redcar last season. He will need to step on those two wins to land the Derby but his shrewd trainer is confident of a big run. The horse has a near-perfect draw in stall 9 so back him one point each way with the race sponsors Betfred at 14-1, paying four places.
The other horse that looks overpriced is trainer Joseph O’Brien’s JAMES J BRADDOCK, who wore down his father’s Pierre Bonnard in the Cashel Palace Hotel Derby Trial Stakes at Leopardstown last month to score by a short-head.
He ran as though he would relish this extra two furlongs of the Derby trip and he has winning form on ‘heavy’ ground from the Curragh last season. It’s only a matter of time before Joseph O’Brien lands the Derby given his talent as a trainer and this horse is an improver. Back James J Braddock, who is named after a rags to riches boxer, one point each way at 11-1 with BetVictor, paying four places.
Of the bigger outsiders, Aidan O’Brien’s Christmas Day could easily outrun his odds of 25-1. I suspect he is better than he showed at York last time out when only third behind Andrew Balding’s unbeaten colt, Item, in the Group 2 Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Dante Stakes. Item certainly has a big chance tomorrow but odds of 4-1 or less seem skinny.
I have already put up Venetian Lace for today’s Betfred Oaks (4 p.m.) but the weather has gone against her. That is because she is a filly who is not guaranteed to stay this distance and appears not to be suited by soft ground. She is classy and shorted to 7-1 shortly after I put her up at 12-1 last month. However, the heavy rain this week means she has drifted back to 12-1 again.
I have not totally given up on her chances but I will watch the race in hope rather than expectation. I am not going to go in with a second bet in the contest as the market seems to have got things about right, with Amelia Earhart and Legacy Link first and second favourites, and Thundering On in with a big each-way shout too. Don’t rule out Cameo outrunning her odds either in an open race.
However, my main fancy this weekend is in the Betfred ‘Dash’ (Epsom, Saturday 3.15 p.m.), a contest for 20 runners. This is not a race for the faint-hearted, either horses or jockeys, as it takes under a minute from start to finish. Indeed, coming just 45 minutes before the Derby, some of the top riders prefer to sit this race out rather than risk getting injured.
LEXINGTON BLITZ is not the double-figure price that I was hoping for but he is an improving sprinter who won comfortably last time out at Goodwood which, like Epsom, is a fast downhill sprint track. Lexington Blitz is up 9 lbs in the ratings for that run but his handler, Robert Cowell, hopes he is a group horse in the making so the four-year-old gelding can win off his new official mark of 97.
Lexington Blitz was second in the Betfred 3-year-old ‘Dash’ at this meeting last year so we know he handles the track too. Back him two points to win at 7-1 with Betfair fixed odds. If he is as good as I think he is and gets a clear run, I really hope he will win so I am not going each way.
It’s become trendy now to knock the Derby meeting as a major sporting event but I have been several times in recent years and always enjoyed the Saturday (other than the queues at the railway station after racing). Next week, however, I will be looking forward to the best and most exciting flat meeting of the entire year, Royal Ascot.
Pending:
1 point each way Venetian Lace at 12-1 for the Oaks, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
2 points win Lexington Blitz at 7-1 for the “Dash”.
1 point each way Bay of Brilliance at 14-1 for the Derby, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places.
1 point each way James J Braddock at 11-1 for the Derby, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Rogue Diplomat at 25-1 for the Royal Hunt Cup, paying ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Rahiebb at 14-1 for the Ascot Gold Cup, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
Last weekend: – 4 points.
1 point each way Celandine at 13-2 for theAchilles Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Coedana at 14-1 for the Lester Piggott Fillies Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places. 3rd (but with a non-runner so…the bookies paid only two places). – 2 points.
2026 flat season running total: – 10.075 points.
2025-26 jumps season: – 57.785 points
2025 flat season: + 84.12 points on all tips.
2024-5 jumps season: – 47.61 points on all tips.
2024 flat season: + 41.4 points on all tips.
2023-4 jumps season: + 42.01 points on all tips.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
Total for seven full seasons of tipping: + 68.215 points
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