In the Premier League this season, the number of open-play goals, shots and passes are all the lowest in years. There have been just six wins by four goals or more, compared with 33 two years ago. Arsenal are on course to win the league with 84 points, nine fewer the average of the champions over the past decade. Some 28 per cent of goals this season have come from corners, free-kicks and penalties, compared with 19 per cent five years ago. Phone-ins, podcasts and message-boards are full of journalists, pundits and fans lamenting how boring the Premier League has become.
Not so: this is the most interesting Premier League season in years. The biggest concern about the competition in the past decade has been the impact of soaring revenue at the top end generating a predictable and uninspiring competition, with Manchester City racking up the title wins like Bayern Munich in Germany and Paris Saint-Germain in France. This season has put that fear to bed. Instead, it is more difficult than ever to win matches in the Premier League.
This year’s league table defies logic. The champions, Liverpool, added three exceptional forwards to their team, but were first too chaotic and are now too slow. They face a real battle to qualify for the Champions League. Brentford lost their manager and their two best forwards in the summer, but have barely missed a beat. Sunderland bought half a new squad and were effectively safe from relegation by Christmas. And then there is Tottenham. A team with the 9th-highest revenue in Europe is above the relegation zone on goal difference.
The biggest reason for this unpredictability is a surge in international media rights. Rising domestic rights during the 2000s and 2010s were enough to push the Premier League’s leading clubs into the top tier of European football. But these have plateaued in the past two rights cycles. (To keep the overall value of domestic rights rising, the Premier League have made more and more games available for live broadcast, which is why your team never seems to play on Saturday at 3 p.m. any more.)
Instead, the growth has come from higher prices in selling rights in the US, South America and Asia, reflecting the league’s global popularity. This income – and the fact that the Premier League has a fairly equitable distribution model between the clubs – means that mid-table clubs have become much richer relative to clubs outside of the Premier League. Georgio Furlani, the chief executive officer of AC Milan – a team that has won seven European Cups, told The Athletic in 2023 that it is team are competing with Bournemouth and Leeds in the transfer market. The talent level in the middle of the Premier League is much higher than it was five years ago.
Several of the clubs in the Premier League’s middle class have also been wholehearted adopters of data science. Bournemouth, Brentford and Brighton use data to determine transfer policy and playing style. Bournemouth, for example, sold Antoine Semenyo for £60 million in January and replaced him with one of the best prospects in Brazilian football, Rayan, for half the price. So far, Rayan has fitted in seamlessly. Manchester United and Tottenham, by contrast, continue to let the tactical preferences of their coaches dictate their transfer policies, a slower and more expensive way of operating.
It is true that much of the football has been stodgy to watch
Another important piece is financial regulation. Manchester City (and before them, Chelsea and Blackburn Rovers) were able to buy their way to the Premier League title thanks to the deep pockets of their owners. But the Premier League’s profit and sustainability rules, which limit the financial losses that clubs can make, have put an end to that practice. PSR has caused frustration among some teams who had ambitions to spend their way to the top, such as Newcastle and Aston Villa, but has also held back already established super-clubs, such as Manchester City and Chelsea, from inflating transfer fees even more quickly.
For 2025/26, these trends have generated a much more competitive Premier League. It is true that much of the football has been stodgy to watch. Liverpool’s increasingly curmudgeonly coach, Arne Slot, has said he doesn’t enjoy watching most of the matches. But we also need to acknowledge the glass half-empty nature of much football discourse. Five years ago, the league was labelled boring because Manchester City won every game with 75 per cent possession and repeatedly scored the same goal. (The one where Kevin de Bruyne worked the ball wide to Raheem Sterling, who cut in and slid a cross into the six-yard box for Sergio Aguero to tap in.) Pep Guardiola ushered in a new, more direct era by replacing Aguero with Erling Haaland, and Manchester City’s struggle for fluency in the past two years demonstrate that even the best-resourced club on the planet is being challenged by a stronger league.
This will go down as a weird, transitional season. The league is entering a new era, and change is never boring.
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