The Iranian people have shown true courage as they protest against the Islamic Republic. As the pressure mounts, some elements of Iran’s regime have been pushing to negotiate with the Trump administration – trying to create the impression they are ready to drink from the “poisoned chalice” as the Islamic Revolution’s founder Ruhollah Khomeini did to end the Iran-Iraq war in 1988.
Saeed Laylaz, a reformist economist, told Euro News last week that, “I have information that Iranian political officials are ready for dialog with the other side.” More pragmatic figures within the Islamic Republic – namely Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani, President Masoud Pezeshkian, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and others – are likely arguing internally for diplomatic outreach to the United States. This is not because they want to fundamentally change the regime but because they have a vested interest in preserving it. The Islamic Republic has repeatedly throughout its history demonstrated that it is incapable of reform, which is why the Iranian people are trying to oust it.
If the US government were to pursue a deal with Tehran now, it risks being seen by the Iranian people as an external intervention backing the Islamic Republic as the protesters fight to bring about its downfall. Instead, the Trump administration and its allies should focus on supporting the Iranian people.
The first step should be to freeze diplomacy with the Iranian regime. Any entreaties from mediators should be rejected. This alone would narrow the options open to the Islamic Republic’s political elite. As the last four decades of US diplomatic engagement with the Islamic Republic has demonstrated, it is highly unlikely that there will ever be a durable negotiated outcome with Tehran anyway. At the same time, the Trump administration should encourage its allies and partners in Europe and around the world to downgrade their diplomatic ties with Tehran to isolate the regime.
Second, western capitals should begin compiling a package of sanctions against those complicit in human rights abuses. Collective sanctions against Iran’s supreme leader would be a powerful signal to send to the Iranian people. Additionally, individuals like Iran’s Attorney General Mohammad Movahedi Azad – who has been threatening protesters with the death penalty – should be sanctioned as well. As should Ali Larijani and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who have long records overseeing abuses of the Iranian people. Both have served as heads of state bodies which have cracked down on protesters over the years. Ghalibaf, especially, is wildly corrupt and is considered by some to be a candidate to lead Iran should the IRGC mount an internal coup and dislodge Iran’s clerical rule. The West should ensure they too cannot escape unscathed.
Third, the US government should pursue federal criminal indictments against Iran’s supreme leader and his henchmen for terrorism, corruption and human rights abuses. If the United States could indict Maduro, it can indict Khamenei. It is highly unlikely the Trump administration would seize Khamenei like it did with Maduro. But the very existence of an indictment against Khamenei and his lieutenants would put the Iranian elite on edge and delegitimize their rule.
Fourth, the US and its allies should deploy offensive cyber capabilities, covert action and missile strikes against the regime. This should be aimed at preventing Iran from throttling the internet and damaging its surveillance and suppressive apparatus. Iran’s police and IRGC forces – which respond to domestic protests – should be targeted, in particular. Hitting these targets would help even the playing field between the Iranian people, who are largely unarmed, and the regime.
Striking Iran militarily over its human rights abuses would be unprecedented for an American president. But President Trump has already broken taboos and shattered the faulty assumptions that have paralyzed US-Iran policy for decades. It would also be consistent with President Trump’s punishment of then-Syrian President Bashar al-Assad who used chemical weapons against his own people during his first term in office. Trump authorized the use of force against the Syrian regime for those crimes in 2017 and 2018, seeking to distinguish himself from President Obama who backed away from his own red lines. In 2026, President Trump can protect the Iranian people and right the wrongs of the Obama administration in 2009, when it failed to meaningfully assist the Iranian people, who were protesting the disputed re-election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as president.
An implacable US adversary for over four decades is experiencing an existential crisis. Now is the time to pressure the regime and come to the aid of the Iranian people. Doing so would give Iranians the power to reclaim their country and at the same time further the West’s interests.
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