William Cook

The German Embassy in London threw an election party yesterday, but as the guests gathered round the big screens to watch the exit poll the mood became subdued. Of course diplomats are supposed to be neutral and even German journalists strive to be objective, but off the record everyone here in Belgrave Square was saying the same thing: ‘Anyone but AfD.’ [caption id="attachment_9940622" align="aligncenter" width="620"] The exit poll from Germany's election[/caption] Alternative für Deutschland, Germany’s anti-immigration party, has been a thorn in Angela Merkel’s side ever since it was founded four years ago. In Germany’s last election, in 2013, it polled 4.

Theresa May’s Florence speech may have been welcomed with cautious optimism by Michel Barnier, but the reaction in Germany has been decidedly more downbeat. ‘In substance, May is bringing no more clarity,’ tweeted German MEP Manfred Weber. ‘I am even more concerned now.’ Weber is Chairman of the centre-right European Peoples Party, the biggest grouping in the European Parliament, and a rising star in Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union. So does he speak for Merkel? Well, that would be pushing it, but while ‘Mutti’ maintains her deafening silence about all matters Brexit, it’s probably the closest we’re going to get.

With the German election a fortnight away, and Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union enjoying a commanding lead, you might suppose the German Chancellor would be tempted to play safe and keep her head down. However as Theresa May has shown, that’s a risky strategy for an incumbent. Far better to come out fighting, take the battle to your opponents – and choose the ground upon which you wish to fight. Merkel’s favourite battleground has always been foreign policy, and with her conservative CDU on course for a resounding victory, yesterday’s interview with the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung gives the clearest outline so far of what her priorities will be when she returns for a fourth term as Chancellor in two weeks’ time.

 Berlin Under the PR system we gave them, it's inevitable that Merkel will have to govern in some sort of coalition ‘Capitalism is armed robbery,’ reads the graffiti on the subway wall, but here in Berlin, German capitalists are doing what capitalism does best — creating new jobs and new industries. Berlin used to be regarded as ‘poor but sexy’(as Berlin’s former mayor Klaus Wowereit put it), but last year the German capital boasted the highest growth in the country — 2.7 per cent, 0.7 per cent above the national average. A city of squats and bombsites has become a city of high-tech start-ups, and now tech giants such as Google and Microsoft are moving in. Cheap rents and a lively nightlife attract smart millennials from across the globe.

Last night’s TV debate between Angela Merkel and Martin Schulz poses a nagging question for British conservatives. No, nothing to do with Brexit – the subject wasn’t even mentioned. Rather, why was Theresa May so afraid of going toe to toe with Jeremy Corbyn before the General Election? If only she’d done a Merkel and faced off her main rival on television, she might have won a decent majority - just as Merkel looks set to do in three weeks’ time. Like May, Merkel is widely (and quite rightly) regarded as an uninspiring public speaker. Like Corbyn, Schulz is an assured performer, with a polished ‘man of the people’ shtick.

In the summer of 1990, the editor of The Spectator, Dominic Lawson, went to interview Nicholas Ridley, Margaret Thatcher’s Secretary of State for Industry, and asked him about the drive towards European Monetary Union. ‘This is all a German racket designed to take over the whole of Europe,’ said Ridley. ‘I’m not against giving up sovereignty in principle, but not to this lot. You might as well give it up to Adolf Hitler, frankly.’ The consequences of these comments were seismic. Thatcher demanded Ridley’s resignation, she resigned herself a few months later, and for a quarter of a century thereafter successive Prime Ministers did their utmost to distance themselves from Ridley’s remarks.

Liberal Brits got a welcome wake-up call yesterday, when the woman they’ve been calling the leader of the free world voted against Gay Marriage. ‘For me, marriage in law should be between a man and a woman, and that’s why I didn’t vote in favour of this bill,’ said Angela Merkel, after the German parliament voted to legalise same-sex unions by 393 votes to 226. All the usual suspects have been on Twitter, voicing their right-on indignation, but for anyone who knows anything about Merkel, the wonder is that anybody should be in the slightest bit surprised.

The British public never really warmed to Helmut Kohl. In Britain, he was always seen as too bossy, too bumptious, too… well, too Teutonic. Margaret Thatcher thought so too. ‘My God, that man is SO German,’ she told Charles Powell, after Kohl’s attempt to woo her with his favourite dish, stuffed pig’s stomach, fell horribly flat. Even the Germans were often ambivalent about their longest serving Chancellor since Bismarck. East Germans ended up disillusioned when Kohl’s lavish promises of ‘blooming landscapes’ failed to materialise. West Germans ended up disillusioned when they had to foot the bill. Yet history will judge him kindly, in Germany and Britain.

Enda Kenny stepped down as Ireland’s Taoiseach yesterday, and his farewell speech, at the National Gallery of Ireland, was an object lesson for British Conservative politicians. Amid the splendour of this palatial building, he delivered a speech which was warm and affable, enlivened with personal revelations and underpinned by heartfelt sincerity. If only our Prime Minister had a smidgeon of his public speaking skills. Kenny was here to re-open Dublin’s newly renovated National Gallery, which has been under wraps these last six years - the entire duration of his time as Taoiseach. Naturally, it was an easy gig. Yet Kenny didn’t get polite applause. He brought the house down, and he did so by articulating what the people in this room were feeling.

Angela Merkel has never been a showboating politician. Public speaking isn’t her forte – she prefers to work behind the scenes. That’s why her latest speech has made such big waves, on both sides of the Atlantic. The Washington Post said it marked the beginning of a ‘new chapter in US-European relations.’ The New York Times called it a ‘potentially seismic shift.’ Seasoned US diplomat Richard Haas described it as ‘a watershed’ in America’s relationship with Europe. So what did Merkel say? What did she mean by it? And what are the implications for Germany, and for Britain?

Last year's Austrian presidential election looked like a turning point for the European Union. Alexander Van der Bellen, a soft left Eurofederalist (narrowly) defeated Eurosceptic Norbert Hofer, of the hard right Austrian Freedom Party, and Continental Europhiles went into 2017 with fresh hope that they might halt the tidal wave of Brexit, before it engulfed the EU. Sure enough, this year France and Holland have both returned Europhile candidates, and Germany looks set to follow suit. The tide had turned, the pundits said. 2016 had been the high water mark of Populism. 2017 would be the year the EU fought back.