Tim Shipman

Keir Starmer began the year saying that any ​minute he wasn’t focused on the cost of living would be a minute wasted. Then he spent the first week of the political year engaged in foreign affairs and yet another U-turn. While Downing Street wants to talk about ‘the year of proof’ for its reforms of the public services, it has less ability to control the news agenda than even recent Tory administrations. Here are six things we have learnt this week. This government is increasingly the victim of events, not their master Fair enough, you might think, when Donald Trump is on the scene, a president who is not only capable of impulsive action but seems to positively revel in controlling the news agenda as if he was still the main attraction in a reality television show.

Contemplating a new year always raises questions. Was there a Third Protocol? What was wrong with Oral-A? Can Keir Starmer survive 2026 as prime minister? It is the biggest question in politics this year and the fact that it does not have an easy answer illustrates the mess Starmer has got himself into over the past 18 months. A few days before Christmas, a senior figure in No. 10 outlined how Labour’s high command still believes the winds will change for the party in 2026: a ‘virtuous circle’ of falling interest rates and inflation, more investment, growth, and rising confidence in the government among the public and the Parliamentary Labour Party. Another Starmer loyalist noted the old adage: ‘It’s always darkest before the dawn.

The government has delivered an early Christmas present to farmers by modifying the new rules on inheritance tax. Or that’s one way of looking at it. The other is that it’s a huge political U-turn, the latest of many, after months of digging in and insisting there was nothing to see here. Following talks last week between Keir Starmer and Tom Bradshaw, the president of the National Farmers Union, the government has increased the threshold at which IHT will apply from £1 million to £2.5 million. It allows spouses to pass on £5 million worth of assets between them before being hit by inheritance tax. The number of estates affected will fall from 375 to 185, so while it’s not a total solution, but farmers regard it as a step in the right direction.

The theme of British politics in 2025 has been the assertion of the fun fringe over the staid centre. Nigel Farage and Reform have led all year in the polls and maintain a healthy lead over Labour and the Tories as the year comes to a close. In the final quarter of the year, the big story has been the emergence of the Green party, under Zack Polanski’s leadership. Both he and Farage know what they think and say it with gusto – little quarter is asked or given. We are at the stage where populists have captured the imagination and are also popular. Reform now has more members than any other political party and the Greens are hunting down Labour for the silver medal spot.

After three months of speculation, Keir Starmer has appointed a replacement for Peter Mandelson as ambassador to Washington. The winner is career diplomat Christian Turner, who has, for the last couple of years, been the political director at the Foreign Office. Turner is considered a high-flyer and has been tipped for big roles like this for years, but it certainly won’t have done him any harm to have been one of the key link men with the incoming Labour administration a year ago. He and Oliver Robbins, the permanent secretary, have been presiding over a difficult reduction in headcount and awkward internal politics over both Gaza and Trump. He is just the sort of official who impresses the Prime Minister.

We are in the pre-Christmas dog days and politics has, finally, slowed down a bit. Reflecting on 2025, here are my top 12 key moments which tell us the most about where we are in politics and how things might pan out in 2026. Keir Starmer had a decent start to the year, while Nigel Farage ‘won’ from May to September. The final quarter saw the emergence of Kemi Badenoch and Zack Polanski: Starmer produces letter from the King inviting Donald Trump on his second state visit, 27 February This might have been the high point of the Prime Minister’s year. He and then foreign secretary David Lammy worked out that Trump was likely to win the presidential election a year earlier and got alongside his team.