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Thursday

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I fear the violence will get worse, much worse

Mostly I am feeling too depressed about what's happening in Gaza to even find words to comment on it. Civil war has been looming for so long, and yet I kept hoping against hope that it wouldn't actually break; that somehow, something would change to divert things from their inexorable path.  For once, on this bleakest of days, I find it hard not to want to blame the Palestinians themselves. The roots of their desperation and grievance may lie in the economic, political and social prison they have been forced into by a combination of Israeli policy and international compliance, but truly, how can this most sickening of internecine wars do anything but damage the legitimacy of their cause? I don't understand.

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This should cheer the Blairs up

If the Blairs are rather down about leaving Downing Street, they should consider this: Bill Clinton raked in more than $10 million from his various speaking engagements last year. Tony might soon be joining those friends of his from school and university who, as he once said, “ended up so rich.” Indeed, maybe he should be buying the Cabinet presents rather than the other way round.

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Iraq edges away from the brink

The fact that the violence in Iraq has not reached the point of no return after yesterday’s bombing of the mosque at Samara is reassuring. John Burns, the New York Times’ incomparable Baghdad correspondent, has a must-read on why the reaction to-date has been so muted. If the situation remains calm, in relative terms, through Friday prayers this moment of acute danger will have passed. However, the situation in Iraq is still sobering. Today's Washington Post has an informative summary of the current situation. “Sectarian killings and attacks -- which were spiraling late last year -- dropped sharply from February to April, but civilian casualties rose slightly, to more than 100 a day.

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What should the Cabinet get the PM?

The Times reports today that the Cabinet has held a whip round for leaving presents for Blair and Prescott and that they’ve got £1,600 to spend on the two of them. What should they give Blair apart from a card saying thanks for the majorities? The gift can’t be too extravagant as that would upset Harriett Harman while the traditional engraved silver salver seems, well, a bit Tory. So, they need a third way. If you have a suitably New Labour solution to this problem, do leave it in the comments.

Wednesday

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Where will Gordon go first?

Benedict Brogan’s always excellent blog has an interesting post on the question of what Brown’s first foreign trip as leader will be. As Brogan notes, if Brown goes to Paris and Berlin he risks looking like the new kid in the class eager for approval from his peers—a danger that has been heightened by Sarkozy so successfully establishing himself as Mr. Europe. While if he heads to Washington, he’ll have to take a position vis-à-vis the Bush administration far sooner than he’d like. There is, though, a third way: make New York and the United Nations his first trip. Brogan thinks this is the likeliest destination as it would allow Brown to emphasise both the softer side of foreign policy and that Britain is in Iraq under a UN mandate.

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A friendly mistake

“We’ve gone on holiday by mistake”. So says Richard E Grant’s unforgettable character in Withnail & I. The other day I was trying to get on to Facebook to list myself as one my wife’s friends and write something nice – an innocent enough objective, I thought. Somewhere down the line – not quite sure where - I managed to join the whole damn thing by mistake. Well, that’s my excuse, anyway. Would that stand up in court? I doubt it very much. Now I have to fret about how many Facebook friends I have (a paltry 20 at present), “poking” and networks. As if I didn’t have enough to worry about already. All this Web 2.0 business can be very stressful.

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The Tony n’ Dave show, catch it while you can

A few thoughts from the penultimate Cameron v Blair show. The Prime Minister has a new phrase, “the end of waiting as we know it,” which doesn’t mean waiting has ended at all. He’s sharply reduced the number waiting over six months. But the median inpatient wait for an NHS operation is 5.4 weeks, exactly what it was in March 1994 (not that they publish these figures). I’m afraid that’s waiting, and as we know it. But, again, the knockabout was classic. Blair’s swipe at Cameron “he has the imprint of the last person who sat on him” had environment minister Ben Bradshaw clapping with delight. “I’ll miss him,” said Cameron. And to be honest, so will I. For sheer entertainment value, Gordon Brown has a lot to live up to.

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Checking up on progress

At PMQs today, David Cameron raised the whole question of what had happened to the information sharing measures which were supposedly going to be put in place after the Soham murders to protect children from paedophiles. For some background on the matter, do read this article by Tessa Mayes which details just how slowly the process is moving.

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Brussels talks

This interview with the José Manuel Barroso, president of the Commission, hints at how Brussels will play the negotiations on the constitution. He tries to calm Euro-skeptics by claiming that a United States of Europe is not on the cards, saying: "If you ask me, I'm not happy. But the EU does not pretend to be a state and it will not be in the foreseeable future." Barroso also makes clear that the more recalcitrant members will be allowed to opt-out of various bits of treaty, “As a rule, to have opt-outs is not good. But if it is the solution, I will not be against it." I suspect Brown—like John Major after Maastricht —will proudly return to London proudly boasting of the opt-outs he has secured by his negotiating skills.

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Brown’s team

One of the most significant disclosures about the incoming Brown regime is the news today that the next PM will bring Jeremy Heywood back into Number Ten as head of domestic policy and strategy. After working for Norman Lamont and Ken Clarke, Heywood was Blair’s private secretary between 1999 and 2003, and was one of the few close advisers to the Prime Minister to remain on genuinely good terms with the Treasury. He is currently managing director and co-head of UK investment banking at Morgan Stanley – no small post to relinquish. He is a formidably able man, and his appointment is the first concrete evidence of what Brown means by a “government of all the talents”. Strike One to the Clunking Fist.

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Iraq on the brink

The news that the Shiite mosque in Samara has been hit by terrorists is extremely worrying. It was the attack on this site in 2006 that prompted one of the most devastating waves of sectarian violence since the fall of Saddam. Over the next few days, we will find out if civil war in Iraq can be avoided.

Tuesday

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You won’t have Tony to kick around anymore

Enoch Powell famously said that “For a politician to complain about the press is like a ship's captain complaining about the sea.” For Tony Blair to complain about spin is like… well, words fail me. But the Prime Minister had plenty of words about how the wicked media has corrupted the message of the virtuous political class. All his press conferences, committee appearances were for to no avail. For the press are “feral beasts” whose negative stories about his government apparently “saps the country's confidence and self-belief”. I enjoyed and agreed with Tony Blair’s valedictory article on foreign affairs in The Economist. But this is beneath him.

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What to make of Blair’s attack on the media?

This was an oddly defensive speech from a normally robust orator. It tells you a lot about Blair's preoccupations that he left his big statement on the media till this point: it is obviously a subject that has gnawed away at him. He says he's not playing the blame game, but it's hard to see how calling the media a 'feral beast' can be interpreted any other way. New Labour was very happy to tango with the media until it went wrong - most spectacularly over the Iraq dossiers and Hutton. We've had Brown admitting in the past twenty four hours that the Government was wrong over the dossiers. Does Blair agree with his successor?

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Blair’s red lines

Mark Mardell has a handy guide to the negotiations on the EU Constitution. He identifies four red lines for Blair and Brown. • Calling it a constitution, or any mention of flags or anthems. That battle was won ages ago.• The idea that this is “a consolidating treaty” - Blair wants it to be "an amending treaty". This sounds technical but is politically vital because the government will argue that no Conservative government ever gave a referendum on treaties amending existing texts. • Losing the veto on proposals about policing and justice. Britain could win an opt-out on this. It already has a similar opt-out on migration policy.• The Charter of Fundamental Rights.

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Richard Rorty-one kind of Tory

Richard Rorty - who died last week - was a playful thinker and a serious philosopher. In his time he attracted attacks from the committed left - and the equally convinced right. Great big clunking fists came at him from both directions and on both sides of the Atlantic - so he must have been getting something right in his exposure of so many raw nerves. Academic philosophers were also very sniffy about him - thinking that he dissolved their subject by showing its connections with literature and the arts generally - styles of thinking and imagining which reflected their times rather than giving access to objective truth.

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For God’s sake

God has had a hard time of it lately, what with Richard Dawkins and Christopher Hitchens weighing in to see who can be the most aggressive Alpha Atheist. Then again, He has been coping pretty well with heavy duty theological attack for - well, since Adam and Eve. But I see no reason why God deserves to have Paris Hilton on his side. Let us hope that once the celebrity jailbird gets over prison, she leaves the Lord of Creation alone because, frankly, He has more than enough on his plate already.

Monday

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Brown’s mind is made up on Iraq

When you hear that Gordon Brown is engaged in “fact-finding”, you can assume with complete confidence that he has made his mind up on a subject – whatever it is – and is now holding a “review” to validate his conclusion. Ask poor Derek Wanless, who was hauled in to put intellectual flesh on Gordon’s decision not to meddle with NHS funding, or Adair Turner, who had the audacity to take issue with the Chancellor over pensions. So the news that the Prime Minister in waiting is in Iraq tells us something very important: that Brown has pretty much made his mind up on what to do about British strategy when Blair is gone.

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The Sarko revolution

History continues to be made in France following Nicolas Sarkozy’s election as president last month. Yesterday’s first round parliamentary elections were an absolute triumph for his centre-right UMP party, which annihilated the Socialists. Prior to Sarkozy’s election, the UMP party and government were deeply unpopular; the turnaround since has been truly remarkable and probably unprecedented in French politics. There is one fact to take home from these elections: this is the first time since 1978 that a French government has been re-elected (usually, the opposition always wins). In a country that de Gaulle famously described as ungovernable, this is a major achievement by Sarkozy. If he continues to deliver more such miracles, there may yet be hope for France.

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Debating life

The abortion debate continues, but with the continued absence of the key statistic. How many pregnancies in this country end in an abortion? In my experience, people guess at around 10% or lower. In fact it’s is one in four in England (26.1%) and one in three in London (33%). It’s hard to consider these statistics, from any perspective, without thinking something has gone badly wrong. The 1967 Act was intended to stop Vera Drake-style backstreet abortions, not provide a medical alternative to contraception. The extent of abortion is seldom understood because the data is couched in a way no one can understand (17.8 many terminations per 1,000 women, whatever that means).