Stephen Vines

At times of financial crisis there is often a feeling that all the old certainties have been blown away. But what is striking about the entire history of stock-market crises is that they fall into a pattern — and this pattern makes it possible to make broad predictions about the panic cycles that have been remarkably consistent for more than a century. American experts have dominated the sub-genre of identifying panic cycles, notably the market historian Charles Kindleberger and the economist Hyman Minsky. Based on their work, it is possible to identify the stages of the cycle — but not, to pre-empt the obvious question, to know exactly when it will end. So, here’s a 12-point guide.

Waiting for the bursting of the Chinese share bubble is like waiting for an avalanche. You can hear the rumbling but you have no idea when and where it will strike. Among the most bemused of those waiting to find out are the Chinese authorities — torn between pride in the prowess of their markets and lack of experience in the way they operate. Last week the government made a tentative attempt to cool the markets by bumping up stamp duty on share deals and there was an immediate tumble in prices, followed by an upward blip and this week a more severe decline.

The Valhalla which is Hong Kong’s low and simple taxation system is set to be demolished. The government of the Special Administrative Region of the People’s Republic has come up with the bright idea of getting its people to share the festering sore which in Britain goes by the name of Value Added Tax and does so much to detract from the sum of human happiness. Hong Kong plans to introduce a Goods and Services Tax to be levied at a modest 5 per cent, compared with British VAT at 17.5 per cent. But these evil schemes always begin modestly and have a way of becoming less modest as time goes on. There are some other significant differences in the Hong Kong-style proposed VAT.