Seth J. Frantzman

In response to the US and Israeli attacks on Iran, Tehran has unleashed more than 1,500 drones on countries across the region, including the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Azerbaijan. But as the drone threat grows, so too do the region’s defences against these threats. As a result, it’s more than possible Iran’s drone war has now peaked. On March 6, the United Arab Emirates published data on drone attacks from Iran. Abu Dhabi said it had detected 1,184 drones in total and 1,110 had been intercepted – a rate of around 93 per cent. The interception rate seems to be increasing. On March 6, the interception rate was 97 per cent for the 112 drones detected that day. On Sunday, only 18 drones were detected and 17 were intercepted.

Over the last decade Iran has built up an impressive arsenal of kamikaze drones which can slam into targets more than 2,000 km away. Iran thought that in war it would be able to use these drones for massed attacks, and when Israel attacked Iran in the early hours of June 13, Tehran duly responded by launching its drone army. Yet so far its drones have been unable to terrorise Israel. By June 15, the Israel Defence Forces said they had intercepted more than 100. It seemed like drones would be to warfare what the torpedo bomber was to ships at Pearl Harbor While Iranian ballistic missiles may have penetrated Israel defences with deadly effect, so far the Israeli military has neutralised the drone threat almost entirely. This seems surprising.

In mid-May, Saudi Arabia welcomed Syrian regime leader Bashar al-Assad to the Kingdom ahead of an important meeting of the Arab League. Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky was also welcomed and invited to the League meeting. The two leaders visiting the country at the same time symbolise Saudi Arabia’s increased role in regional and global diplomacy. Helping to bring Syria’s regime in from the cold can be seen as Riyadh’s willingness to confront western consensus on Syria, while hosting the Ukrainian leader looks like a way to show that the Middle East can play a role in a key conflict reshaping the world today.  Saudi Arabia has reinvented itself in the last few years.

The Ukrainian airforce has so far held out in the battle for the skies. Russia continues to rely on missiles for deep strikes into Ukrainian territory while the defenders have been able to contest the airspace by employing drones. Ukraine has proven a turning point in the age of drone warfare. The first great drone superpower, the United States, used its unmanned aerial vehicles in places like Afghanistan where few fighters had the technology to shoot them down. But Ukraine isn’t primarily using drones to hunt people, loitering over targets for days; rather, it's using them to go after Russian armoured vehicles and supply columns. This seems like a strategy designed particularly for Russia.

Israel has been working closely with other countries and international companies, developing and producing vaccines against Covid-19. At the same time, the Middle Eastern country is rapidly improving relations with its Gulf neighbours, the latest evidence being the appointment of a new UAE ambassador to Israel. A major shift has taken place in Israel — 20 years ago the country was under siege from terrorists, with bus bombings rocking Jerusalem and terror attacks in the heart of Tel Aviv. Just a few years ago Israel was fighting a major war in Gaza against Hamas, a war that is the subject of an inquiry by the International Criminal Court. For many years Israel has attempted to re-brand itself using public diplomacy and showcasing its tech sector and vibrant society.

In early February I received my green-coloured vaccine certification for having two jabs in Jerusalem. Now Israel is rolling out a 'green passport' that should enable the vaccinated to return to semi-normal life. This could lead to freedom to travel and even entrance to places like gyms and shopping centres, while the unvaccinated will have fewer privileges. Israel has pioneered a mass vaccination program and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in January: 'We will be able to open our economy quickly, the pubs, restaurants, gyms, schools, synagogues and theatres'. Today, Israel begins to roll out these green vaccination passports. Israel's path to providing the vaccinated with privileges has been a rollercoaster.

On a cold night three days before the end of the 2020 I drove down to Jerusalem’s Pais Arena. The area is usually a sports venue, next to Jerusalem’s stadium and mall, but in December it was transformed into a centre for mass vaccinations, open from morning till ten in the evening. By the first day of 2021 Israel had vaccinated more than 1 million people in two weeks, an unprecedented number, making the country a global leader in vaccinating against Covid-19. I was one of those who received the first jab of the Pfizer vaccine. Israel’s path to this milestone has been a rollercoaster of lockdowns and struggles over the last year. Back in February 2020 the country was on alert for the spread of the coronavirus.

Ain Qana is a pretty pastoral village perched on a hillside in southern Lebanon. On 22 September a large explosion destroyed a building on the edge of the village. It was about 12 miles from the Israeli border. Reports indicated it was a munitions storage linked to Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Lebanese terror group. Hezbollah is navigating a complicated time in Lebanon today. After Beirut's massive explosion in August, the organisation has come under scrutiny because of its illegal weapons stores across Lebanon. However, the Hezbollah also has members in parliament. In July it accused Israel of killing one of its members in Syria and vowed to respond. What was the Hezbollah member doing in Syria? He was part of the increasing presence of the group in Syria.

The monumental accords being signed in Washington between Israel, the UAE and Bahrain represent a new era in Israeli peacemaking. These agreements are being signed with Gulf states and they are a result of shared interests. At the top of the list of Israeli concerns is the Iranian threat. But Turkey's increasingly aggressive stance in the Mediterranean and across the Middle East is easily overlooked as a catalyst for closer Israeli-UAE relations.  In the last year, Turkey has invaded parts of northern Syria, sent mercenaries to fight in Libya, launched a military operation in northern Iraq, and threatened Greece, Cyprus, Egypt and France.