Sebastian Payne

Are Britain and Germany heading for an almightily clash over the future of the EU? In this week's Spectator, Christopher Caldwell argues that Angela Merkel has had enough of Britain's position and is out to give David Cameron a kicking over Britain's lack of solidarity with her nation. On the latest View from 22 podcast, Fraser Nelson explains the significance of about is about to happen: 'The [problem is the] extent to which Europeans don't understand us, they can not get that for Britain, it is an issue of sovereignty. They keep thinking well the Brits don't want to agree the next budget, let's give them a few sweeteners — a subsidy here, a commissioner there. They are trying to horse trade with us, where for us now it's gone beyond that.

This time tomorrow, the country will be flocking to the polls to select their first ever police commissioners. Or at least some of them will. Turnout has long predicted to be low, but the latest analysis by Sky's psephologist Michael Trasher suggests it will come in between 15 and 20 per cent. Such a figure would be the lowest of any election in modern times (outside of London). As the Electoral Reform society notes, the current record stands from 1998 at 25 per cent. Much of the apathy towards these elections can be blamed on poor public understanding of PCCs. Although a marketing push has been underway in the last few weeks, it appears to have made little impact. Last weekend, I took a straw poll of people in Newcastle to find out their views.

David Cameron knows that a third runway at Heathrow would be one of the most controversial and significant outcomes of his premiership, which is why he has kicked the decision into the long grass with the Davies Review. Thanks to ever spiralling passenger numbers and the bulging state of our existing airports, both London and the South East desperately need a plan to provide more air capacity. We've examined the numerous options on Coffee House but most immediate solution — to expand Heathrow — continues to find itself at top of the pile. The Spectator has therefore decided to instigate the debate the government continues to avoid: is expanding Heathrow the answer?

Over the past two weeks, the government has been desperately trying to harden its position on the European Union to match public opinion. David Cameron has been rather bullish with his plans to opt out for 130 EU law-and-order measures and the veto threat over the budget, despite being outfoxed by both Labour and his backbenchers on the latter. Has it been successful? As Isabel reported yesterday, the voters of Corby, Witney and Doncaster North are not entirely happy with the Conservatives’ current position and new national polling reflects a similar attitude. This weekend’s YouGov poll compares public attitudes today towards the EU to this time last year.

The Spectator hosted a packed-out debate last night on the motion — 'George Osborne isn't working: we need a Plan B' — and you can now hear the outcome for yourself. As Isabel reported earlier, it was an evening of intense discussion and disagreement, so we have recorded the entire evening for you to listen at your leisure.

Finally, some good news for the government - the public seems unconcerned by its recent difficulties. In spite of plebgate and George Osborne's train ticket dominating this weekend's papers, polling out today shows the Conservatives have managed to reverse their voting share decline in the wake of their party conference. The Populus/Times poll places the Tories on 35 per cent, up five points from September while Labour are down by the same amount. This brings Labour's lead down to where it was before this year's budget in March 2012: The Guardian/ICM polling shows a smaller increase, with Labour on 41 per cent and 33 per cent for the Conservatives. This is still a two point improvement on their last poll: However, the ICM figures are adjusted in favour of the Tories.

Class is back with a vengeance, and not just thanks to the Andrew Mitchell saga. Today’s newspapers are chock full of stories across the news spectrum linked back to class. The Mail, for example, has declared all-out war on the government, with a splash of ‘Who do you they think they are?’ — a front page one could expect to see from the Mirror. The Mitchell-Osborne matter receives the double page treatment, lambasting both affairs with ‘Exit Mitchell, four weeks late’ and ‘Move Mr Osborne? But he can’t possibly sit in standard class’. Their coverage is summarised in a strong op-ed by Simon Heffer discussing class attacks on the Tories.

Conservatives need to become more effective at winning marginal seats if they have any hope of gaining a majority at the next general election. But what exactly does the party need to do if they wish to improve on their 2010 performance? This was the question posed at a ConservativeHome fringe event this evening, where several MPs who took marginals in 2010 spoke of their experiences and recommendations for 2015. The successful marginal MPs — Jesse Norman, Nicola Blackwood, Robert Halfon, Richard Harrington and Martin Vickers — have written a pamphlet Lessons from the Marginals that will be published online shortly.