Sebastian Payne

Is Ukip damaging the Tories in crucial marginal constituencies? As I wrote earlier this week, the next election is looking to be close, but there has been much speculation as to what extent Ukip will split the Tory vote. Could this unwittingly lead to a Labour victory? Lord Ashcroft has polled 40 of the most marginal Conservative seats (32 Labour targets and 8 Lib Dem) for the third time since the last election to try and answer that question. From today's snapshot, the answer is that Ukip pose a great electoral threat to the Tories.

Every morning throughout party conference season, we’ll be providing our pick of the fringe events on Coffee House.  Today is the first day of the Liberal Democrats’ conference in Glasgow so the pick of the fringes is a little sparse to say the least. But some cabinet ministers will still be making appearances throughout the day: Title Key speaker(s) Time Location Action for Land Taxation & Economic Reform film showing and Q&A Vince Cable 13:00-14:00 SECC, Leven Jobs and apprentices Q&A Vince Cable and Jo Swinson 16.30-17.30 Alsh 1 A Million Jobs for a Stronger Economy rally Nick Clegg and Paddy Ashdown 18:30-19:30 SECC, Clyde Auditorium Green industrial policy: a contradiction in terms?

Party conference season kicks off this weekend, but who is actually going? A ComRes poll out today suggests 38 per cent of Conservative backbenchers will be unlikely to attend their party’s annual gathering in Manchester. 14 per cent of Labour MPs have also stated they won’t be attending but thankfully for the Lib Dems, everyone polled said they would be probably or definitely be going: Why is this a particular problem for the Tories? In this week’s Spectator cover feature, Ross Clark examines the plight of all parties and their conferences.

The next election is going to be close. Very close, according to new polling from YouGov. When asked which government they would prefer after the next election, 41 per cent said a Conservative government led by David Cameron compared to 40 per cent for a Labour government led Ed Miliband. This does not mean Miliband is gaining momentum. In July, Labour had a 13 point lead in YouGov polls. Today, it has more than halved to just six points. The Times puts this down (£) to the Labour leader himself. The polling suggests he’s seen as weak, out of his depth and weird. When asked for three words to describe the Labour leader, the top choices are: Not that Cameron comes off much better.

The Conservative MP for Ribble Valley Nigel Evans has resigned as Deputy Speaker following an announcement he will be charged with offences including sexual assault, indecent assault and rape. The Crown Prosecution Service said in a statement this evening: 'Following an investigation by Lancashire police, the Crown Prosecution Service has received a file of evidence in the case of Mr Nigel Evans MP which concerns allegations of a sexual nature. 'After careful consideration, we have concluded that there is sufficient evidence and that it is in the public interest to prosecute Mr Evans. Lancashire Constabulary has therefore been authorised to charge two counts of indecent assault, five counts of sexual assault and one count of rape relating to a total of seven alleged victims.

What do Scottish voters think about the Scottish Parliament? Nothing particularly pleasant, according to Lord Ashcroft’s latest polling. The Tory peer has asked 12,000 Scots over the last few months what they think about their Parliament, the work it undertakes, its leaders and the notion of independence. The resulting picture isn’t a very happy one. Firstly, the role of the Scottish government. Just 14 per cent claim to have a ‘very good idea’ of how power is divided up between Holyrood and Westminster, while 40 per cent claim to have ‘very little idea’. Just over half think  Scottish Parliament elections are of equal importance to Westminster and 18 per cent believe it is more important.

It's been a varied week on Coffee House, with domestic matters rearing their head once again while Syria continues to dominate the news agenda.

In response to some snarky comments from Russia about Britain, the Prime Minister has just released this bizarre statement on his Google+ page about how he feels about our country: 'Britain may be a small island, but I would challenge anyone to find a country with a prouder history, a bigger heart or greater resilience. 'Britain is an island that has helped to clear the European continent of fascism - and was resolute in doing that throughout World War Two. 'Britain is an island that helped to abolish slavery, that has invented most of the things worth inventing, including every sport currently played around the world, that still today is responsible for art, literature and music that delights the entire world.

With the upcoming teaching unions' strikes, is Michael Gove battling the teachers? Just days after the new school term has begun, the unions have announced the dates of the strikes — including one in the middle of the Tory conference — while blaming the Education Secretary for not listening to the concerns of their members.

As the new school year begins, the Department for Education has announced 93 new free schools are opening — more than double opened last September — creating 46,000 new places. With a total of 174 free schools now open, the evidence suggests Michael Gove's free school programme is taking off. This is how many have opened since the election: But though free schools are flourishing, there's still a squeeze underway.